Brad Case, PhD, CFA, CAIA’s Post

JOLTS Shows No Relief Yet for Inflationary Pressure from Job Markets The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for February, reported this morning, continues to show excess job openings--that is, the number of job openings is greater than the number of unemployed people. That's one aspect of the stubborn inflationary pressure that prevents the Fed from starting to cut interest rates. When companies want to hire but there are comparatively few people looking for work, they tend to respond by increasing wages to compete successfully in attracting the few workers available. Of course that's great for workers (including the ones who already have jobs), but higher wages also stimulate greater demand for goods and services, which may push prices higher. The Fed needs to see more balance between demand and supply throughout the economy, including in labor markets, before interest rates can start to come down meaningfully. We'll see whether the Employment Situation report for March starts to show better balance in the job market. #economy #interestrates #employment #jolts #macroeconomics #aproposmacro #macrobond

The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 142,000 jobs were added in August—a solid number, but below expectations. This continued deceleration in job growth is a clear signal that the labor market is cooling, a trend we’ve seen throughout 2024. With the unemployment rate now at 4.2% and job openings at their lowest since early 2021, many economists are predicting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in their upcoming September meeting. The big question remains: how aggressive will the rate cut be? For employers, it’s essential to recognize that while job growth has slowed, the labor market remains tight, with opportunities concentrated in specific sectors. We should all be thinking ahead about how this shift will impact hiring strategies, wage growth, and long-term talent acquisition planning. The months ahead may bring adjustments, but the goal remains clear: creating inclusive, resilient workplaces that adapt to changing economic conditions. #LaborMarket #InterestRates #BusinessGrowth #Leadership #TalentAcquisition #EconomicTrends

The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 142,000 jobs were added in August—a solid number, but below expectations. This continued deceleration in job growth is a clear signal that the labor market is cooling, a trend we’ve seen throughout 2024. With the unemployment rate now at 4.2% and job openings at their lowest since early 2021, many economists are predicting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in their upcoming September meeting. The big question remains: how aggressive will the rate cut be? For employers, it’s essential to recognize that while job growth has slowed, the labor market remains tight, with opportunities concentrated in specific sectors. We should all be thinking ahead about how this shift will impact hiring strategies, wage growth, and long-term talent acquisition planning. The months ahead may bring adjustments, but the goal remains clear: creating inclusive, resilient workplaces that adapt to changing economic conditions. #LaborMarket #InterestRates #BusinessGrowth #Leadership #TalentAcquisition #EconomicTrends

The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 142,000 jobs were added in August—a solid number, but below expectations. This continued deceleration in job growth is a clear signal that the labor market is cooling, a trend we’ve seen throughout 2024. With the unemployment rate now at 4.2% and job openings at their lowest since early 2021, many economists are predicting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in their upcoming September meeting. The big question remains: how aggressive will the rate cut be? For employers, it’s essential to recognize that while job growth has slowed, the labor market remains tight, with opportunities concentrated in specific sectors. We should all be thinking ahead about how this shift will impact hiring strategies, wage growth, and long-term talent acquisition planning. The months ahead may bring adjustments, but the goal remains clear: creating inclusive, resilient workplaces that adapt to changing economic conditions. #LaborMarket #InterestRates #BusinessGrowth #Leadership #TalentAcquisition #EconomicTrends

If you went into a lab and tried to design the perfect jobs report, you'd have a hard time coming up with something better than the one the Labor Department issued yesterday. Why it matters: The U.S. labor market isn't merely not faltering. Rather, it's getting stronger — but in ways that aren't likely to raise excessive inflation alarm bells at the Federal Reserve, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Strong job creation in March coincided with an expanding labor force and moderate wage growth — pretty much an ideal situation for both workers and inflation-wary central bankers and investors. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March, the strongest in 10 months. January and February figures were revised upwards, affirming that the recent run of strong job growth is no statistical mirage. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% from 3.9%, remaining below 4% for the 26th straight month.

Looks like the job market wasn’t as strong as we thought! The Labor Department just revised job growth numbers down by 818,000—ouch 😬. That’s nearly 30% less than initially reported. The biggest drops were in professional services and hospitality. But don't panic just yet—the economy still added over 2 million jobs. This revision might give the Fed a reason to cut interest rates soon. Stay tuned! 📉💼 #JobMarket #Economy #InterestRates #MortgageNews

🌐 Dean Sevin Yeltekin's insights on the factors impacting job growth and the current state of the labor market were highlighted recently in U.S. News & World Report. Check out the article now: https://lnkd.in/e872P_-3 #jobgrowth #labormarket

📊 June saw the creation of 206,000 new jobs, closely matching May's revised figure of 218,000, and aligning with the 12-month average of 220,000. However, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1%, marking the first time it has exceeded 4% since November 2021. Despite temporary job losses, robust job creation and wage growth outpacing inflation signal a strong economy. Notable trends include a steady work week, increased job competition, and a labor market aligning with the Federal Reserve's goal of a "soft landing" for the economy. Explore the latest labor trends with our comprehensive report! 🔗 View the Full Report Here: https://lnkd.in/eteRi5Zs Got questions about your local job market? Drop me a message, and let's discuss! #SpherionStaffing #JobsReport #LaborMarket #BusinessInsights #EconomicTrends

📊 New insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have reshaped our view of the job market: Key Highlights: 💼 March 2024 saw 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. 💼 Monthly job gains averaged 173,500 from April 2023 to March 2024, compared to the previously estimated 242,000. Despite the adjustment, job growth remains historically strong. This refined data offers a clearer picture of the labor market's health and could impact the Fed's interest rate decisions. https://lnkd.in/g3BPc_Wm

#chatoftheweek: May's labor market data signals inflationary risks. Job creation was robust, with 272,000 new jobs added, surpassing the whisper number of 165,000. This undermines expectations of a softer job market and a potential Fed rate cut in September. However, the labor force shrank, increasing the unemployment rate to 4% despite job gains. This is problematic for the Fed as it indicates a poor labor supply. Additionally, wage growth exceeded expectations, likely due to labor supply constraints causing bottlenecks, with wages rising as a result.