Welcome to Trump 2.0. Now that Trump has won decisively, Republicans are likely to control both the Senate and the House.
Here's what you need to know in 60 seconds:
1. With Republicans likely winning both houses, markets are focused on two main indicators: tax cuts and tariffs.
- Likely that US stocks and crypto will grow (Self-Explanatory)
- Tariffs will likely affect China, Taiwan, and the broader ASEAN region especially on semiconductors. Trump has proposed 10-20% on all imports and nearly 60% on imports in China. Any level of tariffs could slow global economic growth.
- Tax cuts are likely to be introduced for corporations, and while this could increase corporate investment (FDI as well), that would mean lesser budget available.
TLDR: The new policies are likely to be inflationary could add a layer of uncertainty. (While stocks are rising in general, indicators such as unemployment signify rising concerns in the labor market, especially with the recent change in the calculation of the indicator)
2. How will tax cuts affect monetary policy and bonds?
- Currently it looks like 25 bps rate cuts are expected. Rate cuts lower borrowing costs, which can support stock growth if the economic outlook is positive.
- The market has already factored in this inflationary factor, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.6% in September to 4.4% now, reflecting anticipated policy changes and reaching levels from late 2023.
- The Core PCE Index, the Fed's inflation measure, has dropped from 3.5% (Q4 2023) to 2.7% recently, showing inflationary pressures may be easing.
- Next year's rate cut will likely be in March, allowing time to assess the economy and effects of new policies.
TLDR: Short-term bonds can reduce sensitivity to interest rate changes.
3. How does Trump 2.0 affect tensions with China?
- China has already been considered a competitor with the US, so it is likely that tariffs have already been factored into market price.
- Tariffs may serve more as leverage than a penalty, especially as China shifts from an export-led to a consumption-led economy.
TLDR: Domestic policies may be more important for the Chinese market and is substantial stimulus is introduced, Chinese stocks will likely see even more upside.
4. How does this affect the IPO market?
- Strong IPO performance in 2023 has helped revive the market after a sharp downturn from the highs of 2021.
- This year, IPO fundraising has surged by 64% and 2025 could continue the momentum if Republican policies, including potential support from Trump, encourage more companies to go public.
TLDR: A strong 2024 IPO market could continue, but new tariffs may slow listings, especially from Europe and China.