NewClimate Institute

2035 TARGET ANALYSIS: in the face of a possible Trump withdrawal from the #ParisAgreement, the new #US target provides guidance for sub-national entitities like states to continue taking strong climate action. However, it's still not 1.5˚C compatible. While this new proposed NDC is an important milestone in reaching #netzero by 2050, the target of a 61–66% emissions reduction in 2035, to be #1o5C compatible US needs to reduce emissions by 80% in 2035 (incl. LULUCF), under modelled domestic pathways. Under our current policy projections, US emissions will decline, but not fast enough to reach the 2030 and newly-proposed 2035 targets: new policies will have to be implemented. We will give a more comprehensive analysis in the new year. Short analysis here bit.ly/CAT_USA_2035

This week, our experts Sarah Jackson, Lukas Kahlen, and Inès Paiva hosted a webinar featuring insights from Marc Vanheukelen (former EU Climate Ambassador), Linda Kalcher (Executive Director at Strategic Perspectives), and Cecilia Trasi (Research Analyst at Bruegel - Improving economic policy). They shared their perspectives on how the EU can strengthen its approach to international partnerships, particularly in the context of the newly announced Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships (CTIPs). Our expert panel brought diverse perspectives on the challenges and opportunities ahead. Here are some key takeaways: 🔹 Breaking down silos: A recurring theme was the need for better coordination between the EU’s DGs, the EEAS, and Member States. CTIPs were highlighted as an opportunity to unify and streamline existing partnership frameworks and improve coherence. 🔹 Ensuring Buy-In and Flexibility: The discussion emphasised the importance of securing strong buy-in from partner countries, Member States, and development banks. Flexibility was identified as essential, allowing partnerships to adapt to crises such as economic shocks or extreme weather events while remaining aligned with local priorities. 🔹 Opportunities for the Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships: Success will require clear political oversight, strong partner engagement, and mechanisms to address challenges quickly and effectively. 🔹 The EU’s Global Leadership Role: The panellists explored how the EU can position itself as a leader in global climate action. Delivering on its climate commitments and fostering meaningful engagement with key global partners were identified as critical for filling the potential leadership gap left by shifting international dynamics. This webinar underscored the importance of effective coordination, inclusive decision-making, and tangible outcomes in building partnerships that truly deliver on shared climate goals. Thank you to everyone who joined us for this thought-provoking discussion! 🔗We have also recorded the webinar, which you can watch here: https://lnkd.in/gAfKp5V6. 🔗Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/g-d_5_Cn 📢 What do you think are the most critical steps for the EU to strengthen its global partnerships? Let us know in the comments!

Our latest report (🔗 https://lnkd.in/efimyzV4) dives into the role short-term policies and 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets play as a bridge connecting the current state of the world to a net-zero future. Key findings: 1️⃣ Lack of supporting evidence: Many net-zero targets lack a robust evidence base, raising concerns over their credibility and alignment with short- and mid-term strategies. 2️⃣ Net-zero targets still result in substantial residual emissions: Net-zero targets are projected to leave emissions at 21% of 2019 levels on average (range: 6%–59%), totalling 3.4–12.6 GtCO₂e globally. 3️⃣Policies are way off track to meet net-zero targets: Current policies cut emissions by -0.2% annually, while NDCs improve this to -0.7%. Achieving net zero demands a more ambitious -3.8% annual reduction from 2030 onwards. 📌 Why it matters: Despite substantial uncertainty, net-zero targets have helped translate global goals to the national level, highlighting opportunities for credible implementation plans and stronger policies. However, setting credible pathways is key to achieving net-zero. The next round of NDC updates presents an opportunity for countries to carefully consider the interplay between long-term and mid-term targets. At the same time, countries should set adequate short-term actions based on robust evidence to bridge the gap between current policies and their own net-zero targets. 🔗 Read the full report on our website: https://lnkd.in/efimyzV4 Leonardo Nascimento, Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen, PBL Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving #NetZero #ClimateAction #ClimatePolicy

BREAKING: The Net Zero Conveyor Belt launches today! Today, we launch our latest open source graphic: the ‘Net Zero Conveyor Belt': LINK: https://lnkd.in/e2WzMqNf Based on a paper first published in 2021 by Prof. Thomas Hale of Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, the model illustrates how voluntary efforts by non-State entities - such as cities, businesses, investors, NGOs, UN initiatives, and civil society, can create the foundation for standards, ultimately leading to impactful regulations. E.g. The Conveyor Belt... 🌍 highlights how non-State actions can propel rapid and credible climate action, as well as shift the bounds of political feasibility. 👩⚖️ maps the current regulatory landscape across the #G20 to emphasize how regulations are proliferating across a variety of domains and regions. 🛠️ is more than a visual aid—it’s a tool to guide and inspire ‘all hands on deck’ to tackle the climate crisis. The four cogs of the Conveyor Belt - voluntary initiatives, orchestration initiatives, standards and regulations, are together greater than the sum of their parts. But the connections between those cogs are not automatic - they have to be developed, ‘greased’ and regularly maintained. Please check out / share the graphic, helping to boost understanding of how voluntary standards, initiatives and regulation connect to drive #netzero leadership in 2025 - to turn the concept into action. Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit Data-Driven EnviroLab NewClimate Institute Oxford Net Zero John Lang Victoria Fischdick InfluenceMap Helen B. Lisa Lee We Mean Business Coalition Sonia Kaur Fiona Macklin Frances Green High-Level Climate Champions Jane Eisenhardt Clara Eldridge Mission Possible Partnership Catherine McKenna

Reminder 🚨 Only 1 day left to sign up for our webinar on the key principles and considerations for the EU to form strong and sustainable partnerships. The webinar will feature expert insights from Marc Vanheukelen (former EU Climate Ambassador), Linda Kalcher (Executive Director at Strategic Perspectives), and Cecilia Trasi (Research Analyst at Bruegel - Improving economic policy), who will share their perspectives on this vital topic. 🗓️ tomorrow, 17 Dec ⏰ 14:00 CET 📌 online Register now 🔗 https://lnkd.in/df6T4Bua Curious about the topic? We also just launched a report on it. You can read it here: https://lnkd.in/ez-cpZSq #EU #ClimatePolicy #Event

Webinar alert 🚨 Join us to explore the insights from our latest publication, “Shaping Strong EU Partnerships, Principles and Key Considerations” (https://lnkd.in/gSCQxz3b). Speakers will provide an in-depth look at principles to guide EU partnership implementation and the key considerations for the EU to make when designing partnerships like the newly announced Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships. The webinar will feature expert insights from Marc Vanheukelen (former EU Climate Ambassador), Linda Kalcher (Executive Director at Strategic Perspectives), and Cecilia Trasi (Research Analyst at Bruegel - Improving economic policy), who will share their perspectives on this vital topic. 🗓️ 17 Dec ⏰ 14:00 CET 📌 online Register here 🔗 https://lnkd.in/df6T4Bua We look forward to seeing you there! #EU #ClimatePolicy #EUComission #Event

The Climate Action Tracker's latest Switzerland assessment is out! All details ⬇️ https://bit.ly/CAT_SUI

New guidance report to forge EU partnerships fit for purpose 🇪🇺 In light of an expected retreat of US leadership and booming global investments from China, the European Union must take a more active role in supporting partner countries in their transitions. The EU has the chance to develop its range of international partnerships and ensure inclusive, lasting, and sustainable cooperation with partner countries. The European Commission is charting a new course in economic foreign policy to build resilience and enhance competitiveness amid the escalating climate crisis. President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new initiative, a “Competitiveness Compass”, which will include a pillar on strengthening security and reducing dependencies. At the heart of this shift lies the importance of strategic, value-driven partnerships. What’s at stake? The EU’s ability to successfully decarbonise and build resilience against future shocks, as well as its role as a climate leader supporting the decarbonisation of partner countries. Our new report (🔗 https://lnkd.in/gSCQxz3b) pinpoints several key principles and considerations that the EU should take into account to forge strong partnerships and increase its geopolitical levy. We emphasise the need for partnerships to embody given core values: 1️⃣ Mutual benefit and a just transition – Guaranteeing that partnerships are equitable for all parties. 2️⃣ Strong support and financial commitments – Backing partners with the resources they need to succeed. 3️⃣ Inclusivity – Ensuring the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders and communities. 4️⃣ Transparency and policy alignment – Building trust and reaching shared goals. But how can these principles shape EU actions? They help guide decisions on: 🌍 Scope of partnerships 🤝 Partner country selection ⚖️ Governance structures 💰 Support mechanisms 📊 Monitoring and evaluation frameworks An excellent opportunity for the EU Commission to put our principles into practice is coming up soon: the EU Commission aims to revamp its green industrial strategy with the new Clean Industrial Deal. The recently announced Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships (CTIPs) will be the international arm of this policy. They will be introduced within the first 100 days of the Commission’s mandate and the guidance could help make them fit for purpose. Our report dives deeper into what this means for the CTIPs and offers actionable insights. Read the full report and our recommendations for CTIPs here 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gSCQxz3b Sarah Jackson, Imogen Outlaw, Inès Paiva, Lukas Kahlen #ClimateDiplomacy #EUForeignPolicy #Decarbonisation #Partnerships

-- CANCELLED -- Only a couple of days left until this virtual Net Zero Tracker briefing! 🚨 Join the Net Zero Tracker team and other experts including NewClimate's Frederic Hans and discuss the good practice that is needed to put net zero on the road to regulation. 🗓️ 11 December ⏰ 09:30-10:30 am CET / 10:30-11:30 am GMT Registration link and more details below ⬇️

As the European Commission begins its new term, it must navigate tricky geopolitical and economic situation while continuing to drive progress towards climate neutrality. 🇪🇺 🌍 Strengthening Europe’s #competitiveness, the #prosperity of its citizens, and #resilience of the economy will be central to its mission to transition to a climate neutral future. In its latest #blog, ECNO highlights 5️ key priorities for the new Commission to focus on. Swipe to find out more ⬇️ Read our new blog on the topic 👉 https://lnkd.in/di2bQkxD #EUCommission #EUClimateAction #IndustrialTransformation #CleanTech #Investments #Implementation #JustTransition