Cefeidas Group

South America in Trump's sights 📰 Carlos Cruz Infante, PhD, our Country Manager for Chile and Peru, was featured in Diario Financiero with his op-ed "South America in Trump’s Crosshairs." 🏛️In this article, Carlos examines recent diplomatic moves by President-elect Donald Trump, including the nomination of Brandon Judd as ambassador to Chile. He explores how these decisions fit into a broader regional strategy to address transnational organized crime, environmental and economic crimes, and cybersecurity. Carlos also sheds light on the growing geopolitical competition in South America, emphasizing Chile's strategic importance amid China's increasing influence in the Pacific. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/dJGfcWiC #CefeidasGroup #PoliticalRisk #USPolicy #Geopolitics #PublicPolicy #Chile

𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗔𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮? 📰 Our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, and Santiago Ott, senior analyst, were featured in the Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor as contributors to the latest Q&A. This edition explores the evolving dynamics of Argentina-China relations under President Javier Milei’s administration. 🌐Their insights address the implications of China's growing role in the Argentine economy, including trade relations, currency swaps, and strategic investments in key sectors. The discussion highlights how these developments shape Argentina’s position in the global arena. Check out their full perspectives here: https://lnkd.in/dsaJsgek #CefeidasGroup #PoliticalRisk #Argentina #China

📊 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗿𝘂𝗴𝘂𝗮y and Chile’𝘀 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 📊 November has been a busy season for electoral runoffs. Cefeidas Group has analyzed the developments of Uruguay’s presidential elections and Chile’s regional and municipal elections. Explore the key takeaways and download the full reports here Regarding #Uruguay, our team led by Guadalupe R. examined the results that led to the election of Yamandú Orsi, from the Frente Amplio, as the new President, and the challenges he may face in the political and legislative arena, the economic outlook, and the foreign affairs scenario. In #Chile, our team, headed by Carlos Cruz Infante, PhD, analyzes the relevance of the local authorities' elections and how they could set the ground for next year's presidential elections. Please find the complete reports here: Uruguay: https://lnkd.in/djatbeC4 Chile: https://lnkd.in/d8sfuaMi

The results of the U.S. elections, with Donald Trump returning to the White House, create a crucial moment for Argentina's president Javier Milei. The strong alignment of President Milei with President Trump has generated optimism about stronger bilateral relations, yet the key lies in transforming this alignment into concrete opportunities for Argentina. As highlighted by our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, in the Financial Times “Trump’s victory is an enormous opportunity for Milei. But the challenge is to translate being in sync into concrete advantages for Argentina, and for that, he needs to build a strong infrastructure to engage with Trump’s administration.” Speaking to LatinFinance, Juan Cruz also noted, “Milei has bet on this and it is now paying off,” emphasizing that the administration’s strategic groundwork is starting to deliver results. At Cefeidas Group, we continue to monitor how these developments may impact Argentina’s economic trajectory and its positioning on the global stage. The Trump-Milei dynamic offers opportunities in investment and international finance, particularly with the IMF, but achieving real results will require clear strategies and effective execution. Argentina stands at a crossroads, and global stakeholders will be watching closely to see how these developments unfold. To read the full articles, please visit: Financial Times: https://lnkd.in/d5CFxAxt Latin Finance: https://lnkd.in/d88ZTafS #CefeidasGroup #Argentina #PoliticalRisk #LatinAmerica

📊 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗨𝗿𝘂𝗴𝘂𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 📊 Cefeidas Group has been analyzing the developments of Uruguay’s presidential elections. Our initial 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 report examined the electoral dynamics, policy proposals, and regional implications. Uruguay will have a 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗼𝗳𝗳 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟰 between Yamandú Orsi of the Frente Amplio (FA) and Álvaro Delgado of the ruling Partido Nacional (PN). Here is our 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, guided by our senior specialist, Nicolas Braslovsky. It offers the latest insights on the first-round results, potential coalition alignments, and legislative challenges likely to shape the country’s trajectory. 𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗲: 🔹 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲 𝗔𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗼’𝘀 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: The FA emerged as the first-round winner, with Orsi securing 43.9% of the vote, a rise from 39% in 2019. The FA has a favorable standing going into the runoff, with a solid voter base and needing an increase of only 6%. The FA’s main challenge will be to secure alliances with centrist sectors and attract supporters from small independent parties. 🔹 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻’𝘀 𝗥𝗼𝗹𝗲: For Álvaro Delgado to secure a favorable outcome for the Coalición Republicana, he must reassemble the broad coalition that enabled Lacalle Pou’s 2019 win. Delgado’s success will depend on his ability to unify the diverse interests of his coalition and retain support from coalition voters for the second round. 🔹 𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗗𝘆𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀: Fragmented legislative results suggest that whoever wins the presidency must navigate coalition-building to implement their agenda effectively. The Frente Amplio will hold control of the Senate, giving it significant influence in the Upper Chamber. Nonetheless, the Lower House could face legislative gridlock given the close balance of power. The Identidad Soberana party, which rejects both the FA and the Republican Coalition, could play a crucial role in Congress, depending on whether it leans more toward the FA or the PN. After the election, comments from our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, were featured in AP News, The New York Times, The Washington Post, NEWSMAX, FRANCE 24, and the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor, highlighting international interest in Uruguay’s election. We invite those interested in more insights into Latin America’s political landscape or seeking tailored analysis for strategic decision-making to connect with us at 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼@𝗰𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘀.𝗰𝗼𝗺. To read the full articles, please visit: AP News: https://shorturl.at/v7APl The New York Times: https://shorturl.at/NpQ4A The Washington Post: https://shorturl.at/JVlmE Newsmax: https://shorturl.at/bAuUN France24: https://t.ly/z2oq4 Latin America Advisor: https://shorturl.at/DE15a #CefeidasGroup #Uruguay2024 #PoliticalRisk

I’m thrilled to share that my commentary has been published in the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor! In this piece, I discuss the Milei Administration's FX policy. “Overall, Milei has shown no urgency in removing foreign exchange restrictions and has not set a definitive date for doing so. Instead, he has opted for a gradual approach to ensure a smooth transition to a flexible foreign exchange market without destabilizing other macroeconomic variables.” I invite you to read the full commentary here: https://lnkd.in/dzDRmjQu Thank you Nili Blanck and Cefeidas Group for the opportunity!

🚨 Special Report on Uruguay’s 2024 Presidential Elections 🚨 Cefeidas Group has prepared a report on Uruguay's upcoming October 27 presidential elections. Developed with insights from Juan Ignacio Orlando Pernas and Lucas Cáceres, it covers the following aspects: 🔹 Political and economic context of the election 🔹 Main domestic and economic policy proposals from leading candidates 🔹 Foreign policy orientations and their potential implications for Argentina 🔹 Polling Dashboard: An overview of electoral trends This report is valuable for those seeking to understand what is next for Uruguay's politics and economics. Santiago Chaher Juan Cruz Diaz Carlos Cruz Infante Martin Planes #Uruguay2024 #PoliticalRisk #LatAmElections

On October 14, our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, had the honor of presenting to a class of MBA students from the University of Virginia Darden School of Business. He shared insights on Argentina’s political, economic, and social landscape, highlighting the challenges and opportunities ahead. Thank you to Austral Education Group and Professor Prof. Robert Carraway for making this possible. We look forward to continuing this valuable dialogue and fostering further meaningful exchanges! #Leadership #Education #Argentina Mariana Bernuez

Our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, was featured in the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin America Advisor, discussing the long-term outlook for investors in lithium projects in Argentina. He highlighted the importance of mining as a key industry to unlock Argentina's economic potential, stating that Argentina has a broad political consensus on promoting mining. With increasing global demand, the outlook remains positive, bolstered by significant developments and investments from major industry players. However, he also noted foreign investors' challenges, particularly with foreign exchange restrictions. 👉 Read the complete article here: https://lnkd.in/dhRBdKpT #Lithium #Mining #Argentina 

🔍  𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮'𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗘𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗴𝗼 𝗱𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 At the recent Chile Explore Group Congress, “Latin Rocks 2024,” our Managing Director, Juan Cruz Diaz, shared a thoughtful analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing Argentina's mining sector. While there are hurdles to overcome, the outlook for the industry remains promising. 📌 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗺 The current government is addressing political and economic challenges, including a lack of political majority and inherited issues like public debt and inflation. However, as Juan highlighted, "The reduction in inflation has been remarkable." There are challenges ahead, and the government will need to show tangible results in addressing poverty and improving social well-being. 💡 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 Argentina’s provinces, which control its rich natural resources, recognize the vital role mining plays in driving national development. Opportunities emerge as the country addresses infrastructure needs—roads, electricity, and railways—that will pave the way for new investments and economic growth. 🚀 𝗔 𝗣𝗶𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗮 The mining sector is well-positioned to thrive, with broad consensus on its importance and little opposition. The industry can attract favorable investments and contribute significantly to the country's future by aligning with societal needs and demonstrating economic benefits. The road ahead requires focus, but the opportunities are significant. For more insights into Argentina’s political and economic landscape, contact us at info@cefeidas.com #MiningIndustry #Argentina #LatinAmerica #LatinRocks2024 #ChileExploreCongress Carlos Cruz Infante Iain Cassidy Julio Cesar Ortiz