Open Foresight Hub

What role could this have played in the US election? And how might this drive future elections? “Evidence suggests that high inequality has been disproportionately reducing political participation among low-income voters relative to high-income voters (Erikson 2015) and at the same time increasing the share of political contributions of high-income households (Cagé 2023).” -- The World Bank Group https://lnkd.in/gpm25P_f #foresight #futures #democracy #elections 

This quote captures the major risk Africa faces to food security with climate change: “In projecting a transition to very high risk for food production and the onset of very high risk for biodiversity, the report identifies several key risks including the destabilisation of Africa’s tropical forest carbon sinks; the local extinction of more than 50% of plants, vertebrate and insect species across one-fifth of Africa; the total extinction of 7% - 18% of African species, including a third of freshwater fish, and the loss of more than 90% of coral reefs.” -- African Union https://lnkd.in/garSMTvN #foresight #futures #strategy #agriculture #climatechange #foodsecurity

There is growing focus on longevity in Western nations while growing healthcare stressors, such as pandemics and climate change, will likely widen the gap with healthcare in the global south: “At the global level, the burden of disease is still concentrated in developing countries, while healthcare resources are concentrated in advanced economies (see figure below).” -- European Strategy and Policy Analysis System https://lnkd.in/gQMfZw7F #foresight #futures #strategy #healthcare #divide #longevity #aging #pandemics

The rapid rise in consumer prices, and perceived lack of jobs, is contributing to societal discontent: "Higher consumer prices and credit costs have eaten into household disposable income, resulting in consumption spending below pre-pandemic levels in many countries (figure below). The loss of rewarding manufacturing jobs and the perceived lack of such jobs in the future contribute to a wider sense of economic precarity. In many advanced economies, this feeds fragility internally and contributes to risks of fragmentation internationally." -- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) https://lnkd.in/gBK4FETY #foresight #futures #strategy #consumers #inflation #discontent

The ability to vote in the US election today is a privilege. Across the world, the benefits of democratic institutions is in decline:  “In 2023 there were more than twice as many countries worldwide experiencing substantial autocratisation (42 altogether) than those experiencing significant democratisation . This trend is raising concerns about the appeal of democracy…” -- EU Institute for Security Studies https://lnkd.in/gjXUrenW #foresight #futures #strategy #politics #democracy #elections #autocracy

A trend signaling a possible inflection point in globalization: "From 1995 to 2007, trade expanded at twice the pace of global GDP, but the share of global trade as a percentage of GDP peaked at 25 per cent in 2008 and has remained stagnant or declined since. This slowdown reflects both the impact of the financial crisis and broader economic fragmentation." -- UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) https://lnkd.in/gBK4FETY #foresight #futures #strategy #globalization #supplychain #economy

For most of us, some form of drought is in our future: “Africa suffers an annual average of 62 - 68 natural disasters (2005-2015), which affected 30.9 million people in 2015 alone. Droughts specifically are becoming more frequent and severe, with a 29% increase since 2000, and are projected to affect three-quarters of the world’s population by 2050.” -- African Union https://lnkd.in/garSMTvN Photo by Clark Wilson on Unsplash #foresight #futures #strategy #africa #drought #climatechange

This statement about Europe’s dependence on China caught my eye:  “As someone in the Spanish government explained to me recently: “Just as we depend on the US for our security, we depend on China for our net-zero transition.” Spain and many other European countries are delighted that China can supply many high-quality, low-cost green goods.” – Centre for European Reform https://lnkd.in/g2xHsZdA #foresight #futures #strategy #europe #geopolitics #china #import

How far will we regress in the coming decades? “Rather than disappearing, wars are now coming back but with new characteristics in which trench warfare and mass artillery barrages grimly reminiscent of World War I are accompanied by artificial intelligence-supported targeting, satellite-guided precision munitions, and swarms of low-tech drones.” -- @European Union Institute for Securities Studies https://lnkd.in/gjXUrenW #foresight #futures #strategy #conflict #warfare

A good reminder that innovation is needed NOW to reduce emissions. Specifically, the high cost and long timelines of infrastructure development mean the choices we make today have long-term consequences: “For some of these sectors – particularly heavy industry – 2050 is just one investment cycle away. This means that the timing of investments and the availability of clean energy solutions at the right time is of critical importance. Delaying the demonstration of the use of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen in these sectors, where other decarbonisation alternatives are limited or even non-existent, risks locking in emissions for many years and putting the objective of meeting net zero emissions by mid-century out of reach.” -- International Energy Agency (IEA) https://lnkd.in/gZqU54Rf #foresight #futures #strategy #innovation #insfrastructure #energy #hydrogen #climatechange