Signal Risk

#CapeVerde – Carrying on in Cabo Provisional results released on 02 December by the National Election Commission (CNE) indicate that the opposition PAICV party won 15 out of 22 municipalities in the 01 December local elections. In second place was the governing MpD party, which secured the remaining seven municipalities. This marks a reversal of the 2020 local elections in which the MpD had secured control over 14 municipal chambers, while the PAICV had secured eight. The shift in the electoral outcome is not expected to have any material bearing on the broader policy or the country’s post-pandemic economic rebound. Fundamentals will remain positive going into 2025 owing to continuity in fiscal consolidation efforts and a growing tourism sector. That said, headwinds remain in terms of easing parastatal liabilities coupled with exposure to external shocks. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/edf4Vfst

#Chad – LEGISLATIVE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS PRIMER Legislative and local elections will be held on 29 December. A boycott by the majority of the political opposition is expected to see parties aligned with president Mahamat Deby dominate in both legs of the vote, with the ruling MPS party likely to secure a legislative majority. Minor protests are possible during and after the elections, but destabilising unrest is not expected. There will be an elevated risk of violence by armed groups over the electoral period, but this will remain limited to the country’s border regions and will not significantly disrupt the vote. An expected legislative majority for the MPS will cement the Deby administration’s hold on power and promote policy continuity. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/dTa-J7Uz

ICYMI: Signal Risk in the media *South African Jewish Report* Attack on Cape Jewish offices – ‘terrorism’ https://lnkd.in/dH9N34Hm Ryan Cummings

#Zambia – Endgame for Edgar The Constitutional Court ruled on 10 December that former president Edgar Lungu is not qualified to participate in future elections. Lungu – who had planned to run in the 2026 presidential election – criticised the ruling, claiming that he had been deliberately targeted by the administration of president Hakainde Hichilema. Despite his opposition to the Constitutional Court ruling, former president Edgar Lungu is expected to abide by the verdict. The most likely scenario at present is that Lungu will appoint a successor to run in his place. Hichilema’s chances of re-election have improved with Lungu being barred from the forthcoming ballot. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/dBaMYJgu

Five things on our mind this week in Africa: #DRC / #Rwanda What does the cancelation of upcoming talks mean for broader rapprochement efforts? #Algeria Is France seeking to undermine national stability? #Mozambique How will the upcoming cyclone season affect the country? #Mauritius What implications will the arrest of the former central bank governor have? #Sudan Will Turkey play a mediatory role in the ongoing conflict? More in our weekly newsletter - https://lnkd.in/dUHtvi9K

#Zambia – Endgame for Edgar The Constitutional Court ruled on 10 December that former president Edgar Lungu is not qualified to participate in future elections. Lungu – who had planned to run in the 2026 presidential election – criticised the ruling, claiming that he had been deliberately targeted by the administration of president Hakainde Hichilema. Despite his opposition to the Constitutional Court ruling, former president Edgar Lungu is expected to abide by the verdict. The most likely scenario at present is that Lungu will appoint a successor to run in his place. Hichilema’s chances of re-election have improved with Lungu being barred from the forthcoming ballot. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/dwzTe6rD

#Ghana – Back in office The Election Commission of Ghana released on 08 December the partial results of the 07 December general elections. With the bulk of constituencies counted, the legislative and presidential legs of the ballot have been secured by the opposition NDC party and its flagbearer, John Mahama. The outcome of the 07 December general elections was expected given enduring grievances over perceived economic mismanagement by the outgoing NPP-led government. The final results are expected to be released by 10 January at the latest, with no petition against the outcome of the vote expected, nor are there concerns over post-election unrest. No meaningful policy shift is expected under a Mahama administration, but there are minor-to-modest risks to policy implementation once the new government convenes. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/d9Y_fg9T

ICYMI: Signal Risk in the media *The Africa Report* Trump and his ‘America First’ agenda loom large over South Africa’s G20 presidency https://lnkd.in/dP7cqgxN

#Liberia – Crisis in the house The Supreme Court reserved its ruling on 27 November regarding a leadership dispute within the House of Representatives. The dispute concerns a majority bloc of legislators who are attempting to remove speaker Jonathan Koffa; the bloc has boycotted legislative proceedings since late October in protest against the speaker, who has been accused of misconduct. The dispute is indicative of divisions within the legislature between the UP party of president Joseph Boakai and the CDC party of former statesman George Weah. Political divisions will likely continue to impede legislative operations for at least the coming months. This will not impact the stability of Boakai’s political position, but could have several negative consequences for the state’s economic and fiscal position. Our latest via #TheSignalRoom: https://lnkd.in/eR2xDj2z

Five things on our mind this week in Africa: #BurkinaFaso Why was the transitional government dissolved? #Mali Will Barrick Gold comply with the arrest warrant for its CEO? #DRC Does a recently detected disease in Kwangju province present a wider public health risk? #Ghana What does the Manama and NDC election win mean for the country’s trajectory? #Mozambique How will the government respond to the latest phase of protests? More in our weekly newsletter - https://lnkd.in/dyaeNq_m