S’Korean president faces impeachment - Assad regime collapses following HTS offensive - Romanian election results annulled amid alleged interference
President of South Korea faces impeachment after declaring and then reversing martial law
On December 3rd, 2024, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in a surprise late-night television address, citing growing threats from North Korea, threats from ‘anti-state forces,’ and accusing the main opposition Democratic Party of sympathising with North Korea. The declaration was met with protests in Seoul, with thousands of protesters arriving outside the National Assembly building and demanding Yoon’s resignation. The decree was reversed only hours later when lawmakers from both the Democratic Party and Yoon’s ruling People’s Power party defied security forces, forcing themselves inside the parliament to vote unanimously against it. The Democratic Party has begun an impeachment process, accusing Yoon of ‘crimes of rebellion,’ with the parliament having to vote by December 7th, 2024.
The declaration was the first time martial law has been invoked in South Korea since the country became a parliamentary democracy in 1987. It would have given the military control over civilian functions, dismissed the parliament, and banned the activities by political parties. The declaration plunged the country into turmoil, with the situation appearing to escalate when hundreds of troops stormed the parliament. The sudden declaration was met with surprise internationally and appears to have caught even the United States, the country’s main ally, off guard. While the motivations behind Yoon's declaration remain speculative, it has been seen as a drastic measure to consolidate power amid his declining approval ratings. The president's approval has hit record lows of 17%, exacerbated by scandals involving him and his wife, Kim Keon-hee. Yoon's presidency has also been weakened since the opposition's landslide victory in the general election in April 2024, leaving his government unable to pass desired legislation, resulting in multiple bills being vetoed by the opposition. The Democratic Party has been vocal about Yoon’s inability to govern, and the short-lived martial law has severely weakened his position.
The political instability in South Korea could have far-reaching implications at the time of increasing geopolitical tensions. While the US-South Korea alliance has long been considered a guarantee of peace in the region, Yoon's unexpected actions may cast doubt on South Korea's reliability as an ally. The close relationship between the two countries might further be challenged once US president-elect Donald Trump takes over from Joe Biden, as Trump has previously expressed scepticism about the financial arrangements of the deployment of US troops in South Korea. Moreover, both North Korea and China are strengthening their alignment with Russia and may be seeking ways to leverage the political chaos to their advantage. At the same time, Yoon's government has taken a firm stance against North Korea and has suggested reassessing military support to Ukraine, particularly since North Korea ramped up its partnership with Russia, supporting its invasion of Ukraine with ammunition, missiles, and soldiers.
Additional reading
South Korea martial law turmoil sparks international backlash
North Korea, Russia and China watch on as crisis unfolds in key US ally South Korea
Assad flees to Moscow following HTS-led offensive that collapsed his regime
On December 8th, 2024, a rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and supported by the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, declared Damascus liberated after a surprise 11-day offensive. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, fled the country along with his family and has reportedly been granted asylum in Russia. The international community has cautiously welcomed the fall of Assad’s regime as an opportunity for a new beginning, however, questions remain about authoritarianism and a potential further conflict.
The rebel victory ended the rule of the Assad family, who had been in power in the country since 1970. The situation has the potential to end the ongoing civil war, which began during the Arab Spring in 2011 and has resulted in a massive refugee crisis and a collapsed economy. The war, throughout which Assad’s regime was accused of severe human rights violations and assaults against civilians, turned Syria into a breeding ground for terrorist and extremist groups such as ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The HTS has historical ties to Al-Qaeda and, although it officially severed these ties in 2017, it remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States, Turkey, and several other nations, and the US still has a $10 million bounty on Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the head of HTS.
For years, Assad was supported by Iran and Russia and the rapid collapse of his regime can at least partly be assigned to the weakened state of both key allies. While Russia’s involvement in Syria has been significant and its forces in Syria initially attempted to halt the rebel advance, the country’s invasion of Ukraine has diverted its resources, leaving little for supporting Assad. The rapid collapse of the regime is seen as a significant blow to Russia’s reputation and influence and could raise questions about its ability to support its allies in the Middle East and further afield. Russia’s military bases in Syria are at risk of being lost, which would undermine its ability to project power into the Mediterranean and Africa. The fall of Assad is also a significant blow to Iran as it was deeply invested in Syria because of the country’s importance in supporting Hezbollah; as a supply route, a weapons manufacturing centre, and a command post for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
While many Western and Arab countries, as well as Israel, are welcoming curtailing Iran’s influence in Syria, concerns have been raised about the potential for Syria becoming a failed state or a terrorist stronghold. US President Joe Biden cautioned that it was a moment of uncertainty, adding that the US will be working with partners to manage the risk. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to temporarily enter the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, arguing that the 1974 agreement with Syria had ‘collapsed’ with the rebel takeover of the country. Nevertheless, the fall of Assad’s regime marks a potential watershed moment in the Middle Eastern conflict. Syria now faces the task of reconstruction after a civil war and an economy severely weakened by sanctions. Although the rebel coalition plans to form a transitional government, this may prove challenging due to the new primarily Sunni Muslim leadership needing to govern a nation with diverse religious sects.
Additional reading
After decades of brutal rule, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been toppled. Here’s what we know
With Assad ousted, a new era starts in Syria as the world watches
Israel seizes Golan buffer zone after Syrian troops leave positions
Romania's presidential election results annulled amid allegations of Russian interference
Romania's Constitutional Court unanimously annulled the entire presidential election 48 hours before the runoff scheduled for December 8th, 2024, following alleged interference efforts by Russia. The court said it decided to annul the vote to ensure the fairness and legality of the electoral process, and that the government must establish a new date for a re-run. The election will now be rescheduled in three to four months, allowing candidates to gather endorsements, while Romania’s incumbent President Klaus Iohannis has said he will remain in office until the next president is elected.
Calin Georgescu, a far-right pro-Russian independent candidate, surprisingly advanced to the runoff against liberal Elena Lasconi, despite pre-election opinion polls having showed only single-digit support for him. Iohannis has since declassified intelligence documents that revealed that thousands of online accounts, allegedly linked to Russia, were activated shortly before the election to support Georgescu, prompting the decision to annul the results. Although the documents did not name the individual, they centred on Georgescu’s online campaign and described an aggressive campaign. Romanian foreign intelligence claimed Russia was the ‘enemy state’ involved, while counterintelligence assigned the sudden surge in Georgescu's popularity to a highly organised social media campaign, mainly conducted via TikTok, that involved identical messaging and social media influencers. Georgescu has condemned allegations that Russia was behind his electoral success as intelligence ‘lies’ and denounced the verdict as an ‘officialised coup’. Russia has denied any interference in the election process.
Georgescu was a relative unknown before the presidential race. He considers Russia’s Vladimir Putin a ‘patriot and a leader’ and wants to end Romanian support for Ukraine against Russia's invasion. He has also criticised the European Union and NATO and has called for Romania to end its ‘subservient’ role in both. The decision to annul the initial voting has raised concerns about eroding trust in the state, with some viewing it as a necessary step to protect democracy, while others see it as a political manoeuvre to maintain the status quo. The annulment also reflects broader concerns about Russian influence in Eastern Europe, as similar allegations have surfaced in Moldova and Georgia. Moldova's recent presidential vote was held amid alleged Russian interference and voter fraud, and in Georgia, the pro-Western opposition says the election was influenced by Russian meddling. Romania also held parliamentary elections in December 2024, and while the centrist parties did better than expected, the country’s three far-right parties won 32% of the vote between them.
Additional reading
Romania's cancelled presidential election and why it matters
Romania carries out searches in election financing probe after vote annulled
Romania: Police raid houses after presidential poll annulled
Contributors:
Hannah Baumgaertner, Head of Research at Silobreaker
Lucas Samuel, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
Joel Francis, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
For more information, visit silobreaker.com