Baltic Sea underwater communication cable damage suspected to be sabotage • Agreement reached at UN COP29 following delay
Sabotage suspected after undersea communication cables were severed in the Baltic Sea
An investigation has been launched after two fibre-optic subsea communication cables in the Baltic Sea, the BCS East-West Interlink cable linking Lithuania and Sweden and the nearby C-Lion1 cable connecting Finland and Germany, were severed on November 17th and November 18th, 2024, respectively. Finnish state-controlled telecommunications company Cinia, which operates the C-Lion1 cable, stated that such disruptions do not occur ‘without an outside impact.’ The companies operating the cables estimate that it could take several weeks to repair the damage.
A Chinese-flagged cargo vessel, Yi Peng 3, which is reportedly captained by a Russian citizen, has been stopped for inspection by the Danish Navy. The vessel was reportedly at the location of the damage at the time. China stated that it is not aware of any possible involvement of a Chinese ship in the damage. While Russia has not been officially blamed, European leaders have accused Russia of escalating its so-called ‘hybrid warfare.’ A joint statement by the foreign ministers of Finland and Germany noted that not only ‘Russia’s aggression against Ukraine’ is a threat to Europe’s security, but also ‘hybrid warfare by malicious actors.’ Boris Pistorius, Germany’s Minister of Defence, stated on November 19th, 2024, ahead of a meeting of European Union defence ministers, that the damage was intentional and assumed to be sabotage. Russia has denied any connection and has said such allegations are being fabricated by the West to discredit Russia.
While an accident cannot be ruled out, the disruption has nevertheless renewed concerns about Russian sabotage across Europe. The incidents recall similar events in recent years; in October 2023, a Chinese ship, Newnew Polar Bear, damaged an underwater gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland by dragging an anchor across the seafloor, and likely also damaged subsea cables between Estonia, Finland and Sweden, raising suspicions of sabotage. The most recent incident comes only weeks after the United States warned that Russia was likely to target critical undersea infrastructure. The Baltic and North seas, both busy shipping corridors with a dense network of pipelines and communication cables, are obvious targets for potential sabotage.
Additional reading
Damage to underwater cables was 'sabotage', German defence minister says
European officials cry sabotage after two internet cables are cut in the Baltic Sea
Danish Military Keeps Watch On Chinese Ship Suspected Of Baltic Cable Sabotage
New climate financing framework agreed at COP29 in Baku amid challenges
In the early hours of November 24th, 2024, the 29th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP29) reached a compromise on a new financing framework, after frustration and walkouts during the final stages of the summit delayed the deal by several hours. While the $300 billion annual commitment by developed nations by 2035 is a significant increase from the current $100 billion, it is much lower than the annual $1.3 trillion requested by developing countries. Many delegates expressed their frustration, stating they felt marginalised during the negotiations and declaring the agreement insufficient. Despite the agreement being hailed as a breakthrough by COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, it is viewed as a starting point rather than a goal, with the term ‘at least’ added to ensure it serves as a minimum baseline.
The conference, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, faced challenges due to Azerbaijan’s reliance on oil and gas, with the country's president Ilham Aliyev describing oil and gas as a ‘gift from God’. Azerbaijan was the third authoritarian country to host COP, following Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, raising concerns about the selection of host countries. Many negotiators reportedly spoke of their frustration with what they considered the worst COP in a decade and called for reform. The meeting was also affected by concerns over the potential withdrawal of the United States from global climate cooperation, with the US President-elect Donald Trump having pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did during his first term.
The conference highlighted the growing divide between wealthier and poorer nations, revealing a breakdown of trust among the latter. This shift is partly driven by the rise of isolationist politics and changing global dynamics, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. As a result, priorities have shifted from addressing climate change to focusing more on security and energy concerns. The unwillingness of wealthy countries to offer more money and the pressure to reach a deal ahead of more geopolitical insecurity was another major source of frustration. The conference also saw a rise in vocal activism from environmental groups and highlighted the fragility of multilateral cooperation addressing climate change. Observers agree that these obstacles will continue to overshadow efforts to fight climate change ahead of next year's COP summit in Brazil.
Additional reading
Huge deal struck but is it enough? 5 takeaways from a dramatic COP29
Contentious COP29 deal shows climate cooperation fraying at edges
Baku's COP29 legacy: a new era in climate finance or too little, too late?
Contributors:
Hannah Baumgaertner, Head of Research at Silobreaker
Lucas Samuel, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
Joel Francis, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
For more information, visit silobreaker.com