Russia’s largest attack against Ukraine’s civil infrastructure yet - South Korea’s president impeached over martial law
Russia targets Ukraine's energy infrastructure in a large-scale attack
On December 13th, 2024, Russia launched another massive aerial attack of around 200 drones and 93 missiles against Ukraine. The attack targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including power grids and plants, and has been described as one of the largest strikes on the country’s energy system to date. Although 81 missiles were intercepted, the attack caused significant damage, with around half of the country’s generating capacity destroyed already, as well as emergency shutdowns and power cuts having left the energy grid struggling. Following the attack, Ukraine once again called for more Western air defences and tougher sanctions against Russia, stating that Russia has carried out at least 11 major attacks against the country’s energy infrastructure since the beginning of 2024.
Russia has been systematically targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure throughout the war, especially ahead of each winter, aiming to cripple the country’s power generation before the winter sets in. Although Russia has justified these attacks as efforts to hinder Ukraine's defence industry and military capabilities, they have led to repeated shutdowns of critical heating and water supplies, especially during the harsh winter months, in an apparent attempt to weaken Ukrainian resolve. Some analysts also argue that Russia’s attacks can be seen as an attempt to raise the stakes before potential negotiations. The latest assault comes after Russia vowed to respond to a Ukrainian attack on December 12th, 2024, which Russia claimed involved US-made ATACMS missiles. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin also recently threatened to strike Ukraine with a nuclear-capable ballistic missile.
The administration of the United States’ outgoing President Joe Biden is currently working to surge aid to Ukraine to put the country on a strong footing going into 2025, having recently announced a $500 million military aid package. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that President Biden has made clear that the US is going to provide additional packages ‘right up to the end of this administration.’ While President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine, he has previously talked about a plan to end the conflict, without disclosing further details, and has also proposed the deployment of European troops to monitor a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. He also recently criticised Ukraine's use of US-supplied missiles for attacks into Russian territory, saying that he ‘disagrees very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia.’
Additional reading
Russia targets Ukraine's power grid in massive aerial attack
Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector, minister says
Trump criticizes Ukraine's use of US missiles for attacks deep into Russia
South Korea's parliament votes to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol
On December 14th, 2024, South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol over his recent attempt to impose martial law. The vote passed with 12 members of Yoon's ruling People Power Party (PPP) voting in favour, leading to the party’s leader Han Dong-hoon announcing his resignation. A previous impeachment attempt by opposition parties on December 7th, 2024, failed when members of PPP boycotted the vote, hoping Yoon would voluntarily resign instead. However, Yoon gave a defiant speech afterwards in which he defended his martial law decision and vowed to ‘fight until the last moment with the people.’ Following the speech, PPP’s leader called for impeachment, saying it was the only way to stop Yoon. Yoon was immediately suspended of his powers, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becoming the acting president until South Korea's Constitutional Court rules on the impeachment.
The government led by Han Duck-soo moved quickly to reassure partners and calm financial markets, with the Democratic Party pledging to cooperate to stabilise the situation. However, South Korea, which is one of East Asia’s most important economies and a vital regional ally of the United States, could nevertheless be facing months of political uncertainty similar to the previous impeachment crisis of 2016-2017. Furthermore, the acting president himself faces political problems and is being investigated over his role in the martial law declaration, adding to the ongoing political uncertainty. Last week, South Korean prosecutors also detained Kim Yong-hyun, the former Minister of Defence, who allegedly recommended the martial law declaration and has since resigned.
On December 16th, 2024, the Constitutional Court convened to begin reviewing the impeachment, while a joint investigative team, including police, the Ministry of Defence, and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials, has been formed to probe the martial law declaration. The court has six months to decide whether to remove Yoon or reinstate him. While public hearings could take months, the court is under pressure to decide quickly and end political uncertainty, with the court’s spokesperson stating that the first public hearing will be held on December 27th, 2024. If the court upholds Yoon's impeachment, presidential elections must be held within 60 days. The election could lead to significant shifts in politics, particularly if Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, who narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election to Yoon, decides to run and wins.
Additional reading
South Korea court begins review of Yoon impeachment over martial law attempt
South Korea’s parliament votes to impeach president over martial law debacle
Contributors:
Hannah Baumgaertner, Head of Research at Silobreaker
Lucas Samuel, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
Joel Francis, Intelligence Analyst at Silobreaker
For more information, visit silobreaker.com