On the NAVI Radar Weekly 25 February- 03 March 2024

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy -Defense Discussions

Navigating Tensions: Assessing the Munich Security Conference 2024 Through NAVI’s Perspective| NAVI Radar Weekly Special

NAVI Research Institute | 26.02.2024  

The 61st Munich Security Conference-MSC held in 2024 marked a critical juncture in global geopolitics, with discussions centering on historical echoes, contemporary concerns, and the urgent need for collective action.

Russia's resilience and Putin's growing confidence, the looming possibility of Ukraine losing the war, uncertainties about U.S. commitment to transatlantic bonds coming with the reelection possibility of Trump, and the fear that Europe lacks the capacity and will to defend itself were the main concerns that shaped the MSC 2024.

MSC 2024 had a chance to conclude with a powerful call to action, drawing lessons from history to avoid complacency and naive responses.

It could have emphasized the need for a proactive stance against despots, urging the international community to change course promptly to address the global implications of the current geopolitical landscape.

However, a notable shortcoming of the conference was the apparent oversight of the ongoing Gaza conflict. Despite the urgent and volatile nature of the situation, discussions at the MSC seemed to have sidelined this critical issue. The failure to address the Gaza conflict represents a missed opportunity for the conference to advocate for immediate and concerted efforts to mitigate the humanitarian crisis and address the root causes of the conflict, underlining the challenges of achieving a comprehensive and inclusive global security agenda. Read more…

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy - Emerging Threats and Global Risks

US Admiral Warns China Could Launch Surprise Attack From Military Drills| Newsweek

Micah McCartney | 27.02.2024  

China's military is perilously close to being able to launch a surprise offensive against Taiwan, the commander of the U.S. Pacific fleet has warned.

Adm. Samuel Paparo, whom President Joe Biden has nominated as the next head of the Indo-Pacific Command, said the U.S. military will need to leverage innovations like machine learning and drone swarming technology to get a "stare instead of a blink" on China's military movements.

U.S. intelligence said last year Chinese leader Xi Jinping had ordered the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Many U.S. analysts have said Chinese preparations for war with Taiwan would likely be obvious months, if not a years, before any attack. However, former senior CIA intelligence analyst John Culver warned the potential for a smaller-scale campaign against outlying islands just off the Chinese coast, like Kinmen, is often overlooked. Read more…

Focus Point: Regional Security- NATO

NATO’s Military Has a New Nerve Center | Foreign Policy

Jack Detsch | 28.02.2024

The alliance has transformed its once sleepy headquarters into a war command focused on Russia. With war on NATO’s doorstep, the alliance faced an existential question: Was it up to the job of defending every square inch of its turf? Christopher Cavoli, the four-star U.S. Army general tapped as the alliance’s military chief that July, decided it wasn’t.

Cavoli ordered his top lieutenants to come up with a plan to transform Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE)—NATO’s military headquarters in Mons, Belgium, which had lost most of its power after the Cold War—into a proper war command center. Read more…

Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data - Cybersecurity

Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened its global information war in 2023| The Atlantic Council

The Digital Forensic Research Lab | Report | 29.02.2024

As the full-scale war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv’s international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale. Years of close monitoring of not only state-sponsored media such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, but also Russian activity on Telegram, TikTok, X, and other social platforms, points to one conclusion: In the propaganda war, Russia remains fully committed to conducting information operations around the globe, playing the long game to outlast any unity among Ukraine’s allies and persist until Ukraine loses its will to fight.

In Europe, Russia disseminated recurring claims asserting that Ukraine sold Western weapons for profit on the international black market, in an attempt to undermine European support for Ukraine. Russia also persisted in promoting the narrative that European Union member states would face hardship during the winter without access to Russian gas, unleashing an extensive online information influence campaign comprised of more than fifty fake websites impersonating reputable European media outlets.

Western sanctions applied in the wake of the initial invasion disrupted Russia’s ability to reach some European audiences with its state-sponsored media outlets. But Russia has since adjusted its information operations to focus more on social media; in addition to attacking Western public support to fund Ukraine’s defense, it has expanded targeted propaganda efforts in different parts of the world, including Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

And Western support for Ukraine is indeed wobbling, most notably in Washington, where additional aid to Ukraine has been held up for months in Congress. Many factors influence voters’ and lawmakers’ support for sending weapons and money to Ukraine. Whether or not Russian propaganda has played a decisive role, the outcome of decreasing Western material support for Ukraine’s defense is the clear goal of President Vladimir Putin’s information war. And with recent battlefield wins such as the capture of the city of Avdiivka alongside propaganda wins such as the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s position at home and abroad is stronger than ever.

Russia has actively employed information operations to undermine Ukraine since at least 2014, as Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) researchers around the world have documented in detail through their ongoing monitoring efforts. In the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. And as the DFRLab detailed in its landmark February 2023 report, Undermining Ukraine: How the Kremlin employs information operations to erode global confidence in Ukraine, Russia’s information strategy began to shift following the 2022 invasion, focusing on eroding Ukraine’s ability to resist. In this follow-up to the first edition of Undermining Ukraine, we explore how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective. Read more…

Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data - Use of Artificial Intelligence

Chinas New AI Supermind Deepens Challenge to U.S.|Newsweek

Didi Kirsten Tatlow | 29.02.2024

China is building a vast, AI-based intelligence platform dubbed "Supermind" to track millions of scientists and researchers around the world so it can hoover up breakthrough technologies for industry and the military, according to a person with close knowledge of the project and public sources reviewed by Newsweek.

The state-funded platform, which says it uses sophisticated artificial intelligence systems to help find talent for China, is under construction in a new "information and intelligence" center that began work last year in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen. The city is home to global tech brands such as Huawei, ZTE and Tencent— some of which have been sanctioned by the U.S. government on national security and human rights grounds. Read more…

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy - Emerging Threats and Global Risks

Putin says West sending troops to Ukraine could lead to nuclear war | CNN World

Christian Edwards, Anna Chernova, Sebastian Shukla and Katya Krebs | 29.02.2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West of the risk of nuclear war if they send their own troops to fight for Ukraine, saying Moscow had the weapons to strike Western targets. In his annual state of the nation address on Thursday, Putin said claims that Russia intends to attack Europe are “nonsense” but warned that his country might strike Western countries with nuclear weapons. Putin referenced an idea floated by French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Monday said the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine “cannot be ruled out.” Several European leaders swiftly rejected the suggestion. “Everything that they are coming up with now, with which they threaten the entire world – all this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization – don’t they understand this, or what?” Putin said. Read more…

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy -Defense Discussions

How Russia’s War Is Undermining World Order|SCEEUS

Andreas Umland | Report | 01.03.2024

Since 2014, Moscow has been transforming global affairs in the interests of international revisionism. Sooner or later, Russia is certain to lose its war against Ukraine, but it has already caused considerable damage to international law and the global rules-based order. The Russian attack on Ukraine has five important characteristics that, taken together, set it apart from other post-1945 wars. First, the 2014 attack was an assault on an entirely peaceful and non-aggressive state. Second, it is a war not only of aggression, but also of undisguised Russian territorial expansion and annexation. Third, it is a genocidal war that aims to destroy the Ukrainian state as an independent entity and the Ukrainian nation as a cultural community separate from the Russian people. Fourth, the largest and most brutal war of aggression in Europe since the Second World War is being conducted by a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Fifth, it is a conquest of territory by a nuclear weapon state under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) from an official non-nuclear weapon state, which severely undermines the near universal non-proliferation regime.

The political implications of Russia’s attack reach far beyond Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Moscow’s actions do not just undermine the liberal world and European security orders. They shatter the planet’s state, security and conflict-resolution mechanisms, as they have emerged since 1945.

Many non-western countries are equivocal about Russia’s aggression and violation of fundamental principles of international law. Some even support Russia rather than Ukraine. However, the destructive consequences of Moscow’s behavior towards Ukraine and its legal nihilism may be more consequential for countries in the Global South. Against this background, western and non-western governmental and non-governmental actors should join forces to limit and reverse Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its repercussions for global affairs..  Read more…

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy - Russia-Ukraine War

Germany to investigate after leaked recording emerges of secret army talks on Ukraine | CNN World

Xiaofei Xu and Sophie Tanno| 02.03.2024

Officers can be heard discussing the potential targeting of the Kerch bridge using Taurus missiles, with one stating that the Taurus has the potential to reach the bridge despite it being a difficult target, as well as ammunition depots.

Moscow said it was seeking answers over the recording.

“We demand explanations from Germany. Official Berlin has to provide them promptly. Any attempts to evade answering questions will be viewed as an admission of guilt,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on her Telegram channel Friday. The audio has caused alarm among German politicians. Read more…

Focus Point: Regional Security - Middle East

Israel agrees to ceasefire framework|Euronews

Euronews with AP| 02.03.2024  

Israel has essentially endorsed a framework of a proposed Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, a senior US administration official said Saturday.

It is now up to Hamas to agree.

The Israelis “have more or less accepted” the proposal, which includes the six-week ceasefire in Gaza as well as the release by Hamas of hostages considered to be vulnerable, which includes the sick, the wounded, the elderly and women, said the official.

“The Israelis have basically signed on to the elements of the arrangement,” they added.

“Right now, the ball is in the court of Hamas and we are continuing to push this as hard as we possibly can.”

The official briefed reporters on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to publicly discuss details of the ongoing cease-fire talks. Read more…

Focus Point: Social, Economic Security - Social Studies

Freedom in the World 2024: The Mounting Damage of Flawed Elections and Armed Conflict | Freedom House

Yana Gorokhovskaia and Cathryn Grothe|Report| February 2024  

Key Findings

• Global freedom declined for the 18th consecutive year in 2023. The breadth and depth of the deterioration were extensive. Political rights and civil liberties were diminished in 52 countries, while only 21 countries made improvements. Flawed elections and armed conflict contributed to the decline, endangering freedom and causing severe human suffering.

In Cambodia, Guatemala, Poland (NATO Member), Turkey(NATO Member), and Zimbabwe, incumbents tried to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents, or prevent them from taking power after election day.

• Widespread problems with elections, including violence and manipulation, drove deterioration in rights and freedoms. Ecuador was downgraded from Free to Partly Free status because its elections were disrupted by violent criminal organizations, which killed several state officials and political candidates. In Cambodia, Guatemala, Poland, Turkey, and Zimbabwe, incumbents tried to control electoral competition, hinder their political opponents, or prevent them from taking power after election day. While Thailand edged over the line from Not Free to Partly Free thanks to more competitive elections, a military-drafted constitution allowed unelected entities to distort the subsequent government-formation process. Military forces also ousted the elected government in Niger, leading to the second-largest score decline of the year, and adding another case to the wave of coups in the Sahel region of Africa that began in 2020.

Armed conflicts and threats of authoritarian aggression made the world less safe and less democratic. Around the world, violent conflict—often driven by authoritarian aggression—caused death and destruction and imperiled freedom.

• Armed conflicts and threats of authoritarian aggression made the world less safe and less democratic. Around the world, violent conflict—often driven by authoritarian aggression—caused death and destruction and imperiled freedom. Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory that has long received its own assessment in this report, suffered the year’s largest recorded decline in freedom and moved from Partly Free to Not Free after a blockade and military offensive by the Azerbaijani regime led to the capitulation of its separatist government and the de facto expulsion of its ethnic Armenian population. The Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine continued for a second year, further degrading basic rights in occupied areas and prompting more intense repression in Russia itself. Civilians also bore the brunt of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, a civil war stemming from the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, and brutal fighting between rival military and paramilitary factions in Sudan.

Repression in disputed territories was largely perpetrated by autocratic regimes, but the democratically elected governments of Israel and India were complicit in violating basic rights in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and in Indian-administered Kashmir, respectively.

• The denial of political rights and civil liberties in disputed territories dragged down freedom in the associated countries, including some democracies. People living in disputed territories without access to self-determination were especially vulnerable to abuses by authorities with no meaningful checks on their power. Beijing continued to clamp down on the few freedoms available to residents of Hong Kong and Tibet, while the Russian regime advanced its efforts to repress vulnerable populations in Crimea and enlist local inhabitants in its war of aggression. Repression in disputed territories was largely perpetrated by autocratic regimes, but the democratically elected governments of Israel and India were complicit in violating basic rights in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and in Indian-administered Kashmir, respectively. These harmful policies were intertwined with threats to democratic principles and institutions within the larger countries.

Pluralism is under attack but remains a source of strength for all societies. The rejection of pluralism—the peaceful coexistence of people with different political ideas, religions, or ethnic identities—by authoritarian leaders and armed groups produced repression, violence, and a steep decline in overall freedom in 2023

• Pluralism is under attack but remains a source of strength for all societies. The rejection of pluralism—the peaceful coexistence of people with different political ideas, religions, or ethnic identities—by authoritarian leaders and armed groups produced repression, violence, and a steep decline in overall freedom in 2023. These trends are creating an environment that is unfavorable to democracy just as the world enters a consequential year of elections. But by drawing strength from diversity, protecting dissent, and building international coalitions to support their own norms and values, democratic forces can still reverse the long decline in global freedom..  Read more…

 Thank you very much for reading.