NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI

Multiple news sources from December 2024 report on significant geopolitical events. NATO focuses on energy security and critical infrastructure protection, particularly undersea cables. The fall of Assad's regime in Syria prompts analysis of regional power shifts and international responses, including humanitarian aid from the EU. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war escalates, with Russia threatening retaliation for Ukrainian attacks. Elsewhere, South Korea faces political instability, while Ethiopia and Somalia resolve a port dispute. Finally, Turkey's complex role in Syria is examined, highlighting past foreign interventions and the challenges of forming a stable post-Assad government.

Via Euronews: US warplane shot down by friendly fire in Red Sea, pilots eject safely By Daniel Bellamy | 22.12.2024 Two U.S. Navy pilots were shot down on Sunday over the Red Sea in an apparent “friendly fire” incident, the U.S military said, marking the most serious incident to threaten troops in over a year of targeting of Yemen's Houthi rebels. The shootdown underlines just how dangerous the Red Sea corridor has become over the ongoing attacks on shipping by the Iranian-backed Houthis despite U.S. and European military coalitions patrolling the area. Houthi-controlled media reported strikes in both Sanaa and around the port city of Hodeida, without offering any casualty or damage information. In Sanaa, strikes appeared particularly targeted at a mountainside known to be home to military installations. The Houthis later acknowledged the aircraft being shot down in the Red Sea. https://lnkd.in/ebv8FftF

Via The EU Commission: President von der Leyen: ...now we have to step up and continue our direct engagement with HTS and other factions. Press statement by President von der Leyen with President of Türkiye Erdoğan By The EU Commission I 17.12.2024 President von der Leyen's press statement details her meeting with President Erdoğan in Ankara. Key discussion points included the situation in Syria, focusing on a peaceful transition, humanitarian aid, and the need for voluntary refugee returns. The statement also addressed EU-Türkiye relations, highlighting strong economic ties, plans to strengthen trade, and continued EU support for Syrian refugees in Türkiye. Future cooperation on migration management and a modernized Customs Union were also emphasized. Finally, the importance of Türkiye's role in regional stability and combating terrorism was acknowledged. https://lnkd.in/ekatC5q4

Via CBC News: Former U.S. ambassador to Turkey says Trump is exaggerating the country's influence on Syria By CBS News I 18.12.2024 The conversation that follows has been edited for length and clarity by NAVI Research Institute Anchor: That was president-elect Donald Trump speaking to reporters Monday about the role turkey could play in Syria's uncertain future it's been more than a week since the fall of former Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad Turkish officials have denied encouraging the rebel offensive that led to Assad's downfall. But the country has openly supported Syrian opposition forces for years... David Satterfield joins us now he's a former US ambassador to Turkey and director of rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Thank you so much for being here with us. This evening Trump also said the Syrian rebels are quote controlled by Turkey how much influence does Turkey have over the rebel forces and what is Turkey's ultimate goal? David Satterfield: I think it's an exaggeration to say that Turkey controls all of the forces now present in Damascus . It is true Turkey had a very significant support role for the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group now in control of large portions of Syria, but the future of Syria lies in the hands of those groups where Turkey does exercise direct and significant control is along its border with Northern Syria. There, the Turks have a supportive militia the Syrian National Army. The Turks have wanted for many years now to secure a border a buffer zonealong their own border with Syria that would protect Turkey and their justification from attacks coming from Syria. Now this has been a complicated issue for the United States for the past seven years. We strongly support our Kurdish Partners. They're the partners that were vital in facilitating the end to the ISIS caliphate and to keeping ISIS under control. They also control two significant facilities in Northeast Syria: one a prison camp for some 8,000 foreign terrorist Fighters, the other a facility for some 40,000 dependence of those fighters many of whom are themselves dangerous ...So, we're engaged in a dialogue with Ankara right now as we have been for many years to try to balance two imperatives recognizing the right of a NATO partner and ally Turkey to defend itself against terror, to exercise its right of self-defense but also to preserve in Northeast Syria the partnership which has secured not just Syria but the world against a further outbreak of ISIS terror Anchor: The US has 900 troops in Syria Trump has not said what he plans to do with them why are they there and do you see them staying? David Satterfield : ... Now in saying that, the US supports a unified Syria we do not support, we have never supported fragmentation of Syria and we have not supported the concept of statelets, substates emerging. https://lnkd.in/ew2pTzNd

Via Politico:Trump says Turkey orchestrated Assad’s overthrow in Syria By Joe Stanley-Smith I 16.12. 2024 Turkey controls the militants that ousted former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said during a wide-ranging and at times incoherent press conference Monday. “Those people that went in are controlled by Turkey,” he said during the event, his first press conference since winning the presidential election in November. “And that’s okay, that’s another way to fight.” U.S. president-elect said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan conducted an “unfriendly takeover” of Syria, which Turkey has wanted “for thousands of years.” Asked if he was concerned about further unrest, Trump said: “Nobody knows what the final outcome is gonna be in the region. Nobody knows who will rule in the final. I believe it is Turkey. Turkey is very smart, he is a very smart guy and he’s very tough. Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost.” https://lnkd.in/e_SwQahR

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Our latest op-ed is “Characterizing a NATO Cyber Victimology: A Futurist Anticipated Shame Cyber Attacker Model” by Tim Pappa and Mike Ross, LCSW, Ph.D. (ABD) Candidate. In a world where cyber warfare transcends borders, understanding the motivations and vulnerabilities of cyber attackers becomes critical. At the forefront of global security, NATO works tirelessly to anticipate threats in cyberspace—threats not only to infrastructure but to the very fabric of international stability. A groundbreaking model is emerging—linking attacker behavior to anticipated outcomes. The Shame Cyber Attacker Model explores how cyber threats evolve when attackers’ reputations and societal perceptions are at stake. From anticipated shame to complex cyber motives, this innovative framework helps us predict adversary behavior… before they strike. By analyzing victimology—understanding how and why attackers select their targets—NATO enhances its proactive defense strategies, keeping allied nations secure. Explore the full study and discover how NATO is shaping the future of cyber resilience. Because in the digital age, knowledge is our strongest shield. Learn more at nato-veterans.org https://lnkd.in/emkDyGdC

Via WSJ: U.S. Fears Military Buildup by Turkey Signals Preparations for Incursion Into Syria By Lara Seligman and Alexander Ward I 17.12.2024 Senior U.S. officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds. The forces include militia fighters and Turkish uniformed commandos and artillery in large numbers that are concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city in Syria on the northern border with Turkey, the officials said. A Turkish cross-border operation could be imminent, one of the U.S. officials said. The buildup, which began after Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in early December, appears similar to Turkish military moves ahead of its 2019 invasion of northeast Syria. “We are focused on it and pressing for restraint,” another of the U.S. officials said. Ilham Ahmed, an official in the Syrian Kurds’ civilian administration, told President-elect Donald Trump on Monday that a Turkish military operation appeared imminent, urging him to press Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to send troops across the border. Turkey’s goal is to “establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory,” Ahmed wrote to Trump in a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic.” A spokesman for Turkey’s embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Via Bloomberg:Trump Says Zelenskiy Should Prepare to Make Deal to End War By Josh Wingrove and Akayla Gardner I 16.12. 2024 I Subscription needed President-elect Donald Trump said Ukraine needs to reach a deal to end the Russian invasion and downplayed the value of occupied land, in the latest signal he may push for a settlement that codifies Russian territorial gains. “He should be prepared to make a deal, that’s all,” Trump said of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, while speaking Monday at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida club. “Got to be a deal. Too many people being killed.” Trump said the war in Ukraine is “a nasty one” and said an “astronomical” number of soldiers are being killed on both sides. “If I were president, that war would have never happened,” he said. https://lnkd.in/ejiiGkcF

Via AP News: A bomb kills the head of Russia’s nuclear defense forces and his assistant in Moscow By AP News I 17.12.2024 An explosive device planted close to a residential apartment block in Moscow killed the head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence Forces, Lt. General Igor Kirillov, early Tuesday, Russia’s Investigative Committee said. Kirillov’s assistant also died in the blast, triggered by the device which was placed in a scooter, officials said. The bomb was triggered remotely, Russian state news agency Tass reported, citing unnamed sources in the emergency services. Russian investigators have opened a case into the two deaths, according to the committee’s spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko. “Investigators, forensic experts and operational services are working at the scene,” she said in a statement. “Investigative and search activities are being carried out to establish all the circumstances around this crime.” Ukraine’s Security Services on Dec. 16 charged Kirillov with the use of banned chemical weapons during Russia’s military operation in Ukraine that started in Feb. 2022. Read more: https://lnkd.in/evCtT_V9 https://lnkd.in/ePsrwUnv