What's a good way to catch a falling knife? Move your feet and let it hit the ground? Have oven mits on? Don't drop it in the first place?!
No, but seriously, owner/users, landlord leasing teams, acquisitions officers, and tenants are all struggling with what to do with today's industrial property values and lease rates as we muddle around the bottom of the industrial leasing market.
The risk is that you strike a deal today, and tomorrow it's cheaper, and you've done yourself a disservice.
For owner/users, they are wondering if property values will get cheaper having already gone down significantly from peak but not below the mean. How do today's values correspond with tomorrow's expectations of interest rates?
For landlord leasing teams, can they get out ahead of lease rates dropping more? You'll have a different strategy if you own 100,000 SF in Irvine vs. 100,000 SF in Santa Fe Springs vs. 100,000 SF in San Bernardino. Winning a deal today and having occupancy during a slow part of the market over sitting vacant for 6-12 months and striking a worse deal is a genuine concern.
For investors, acquisitions teams, and developers, how comfortable are you that you are buying at a reasonable basis for downside protection? You must underwrite longer lease-up times, uncertain mark-to-market and renewal terms, and exit caps. How patient is your capital? How IRR-driven is your team? Do you need to see the bottom and 10% of the bounce back like Stephen Schwarzman suggests in his book, or are you going to miss out because the flood of capital is back in the game with you?
For tenants, some landlords are offering a price match guarantee like the old Circuit City commercials, where you bring in any competitor's offer, and they will match it. If you wait, will that deal go away or get better? In most cases, no one is going to advertise their next new lowest rent or their next new free rent concession. Is a free rent offer of 12 months from one market going to translate into another adjacent market? How does this locations cost fit into your overall supply chain reorganization strategy?
At this moment, multiple effective strategies exist for each player in the game, in each geography, and in each size segment. What do you see out there?
Grant La Bounty Chris Vassilian
#industrialrealestate #supplychain #3pl
Director of Business Development & Strategy
7moWonderful meeting you at the airport my friend! Let's continue our dialogue and get revenge on the blackjack tables this summer