LSE IDEAS’ Post

The Asia New Zealand Foundation's Media Centre have published my reflections (the “collapse of the international order?”) from the 37th Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Malaysia last week and from many sideline discussions. I cover a lot of ground from the views expressed regarding the macro state of geopolitics, the perceived end of the rules based system (Ukraine, Gaza, Myanmar and Western hypocrisy), the decline of US soft power and growing sophistication of China's regional influence efforts, ASEAN 'centrality' (or lack thereof), SEA alignments between the US and China (more below on this in the comments as part of the text was dropped out) and the views of New Zealand’s Foreign Policy 'realignment', AUKUS and our Space Prowess. The University of Waikato New Zealand Institute of International Affairs Te Puna Haumaru - New Zealand Institute for Security and Crime Science New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade DEFSEC New Zealand New Zealand Defence Force The New Zealand Initiative #nzpol #NewZealand #ASEAN #China #UnitedStates #Geopolitics #AUKUS https://lnkd.in/gQKyidpS

Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong had a moderated fireside chat with SPH Media Chinese Media Group Editor-in-Chief Lee Huay Leng at the Business China FutureChina Global Forum on 18 October 2024. 0:58 On the Suzhou Industrial Park project 08:09 On the tensions between China and the West 15:05 Could China could explain itself better 17:33 On over-capacity in China 23:13 On China's economy 32:37 On the impact of more Chinese companies coming to Southeast Asia 34:24 On "Singapore-washing" 36:38 On attracting Chinese entrepreneurs to Singapore 39:24 On Chinese companies wanting to list on the Singapore Stock Exchange 42:15 On whether playing computer games can help students to learn Mandarin 48:28 On how the outcome of the US Presidential Election will affect US-China relations ❤️No right , No wrong . We have to constantly adjust to #changes. 实事求是 #singaporewashing #singaporepiveting #chinasingapore https://lnkd.in/g8Ds6kBd

There is a way to solve a three body problem in order to make it not so mathematically chaotic. And that is to lock two of the bodies in stable orbit around each other; and then consider how a third body affects the overall equation. However, Malaysia and US are two sovereign countries with different objectives and national interests. And both countries have changed a lot since Najib shook hands with Obama. In order to lock in the 2014-US and the 2014-Malaysia is to ignore geopolitical realities. And US and Malaysia have adjusted to the world and to each other ALL THE TIME. Is Malaysia vital to US interests in the region? Yes. Is Malaysia vital to US China containment efforts? Potentially. But not likely. Is China vital to Malaysia? Yes but so is the US and the West. Malaysia does not want to choose between China and the US - they want different things from both countries - and Malaysia is not getting it. Malaysia wants more Chinese investment, technology transfers and infrastructure construction into Malaysia - they also want greater market access and help to break into the China market for Malaysian firms. Malaysia wants more FDI, tech investments from the West - they also want greater market access into the West. China also wants Malaysia as a market/dumping ground, a market for its infrabuilders and for Malaysia to be anti-US but will settle for being non-aligned. US wants Malaysia to condemn Hamas, be anti-Chinese but will settle for being non-aligned. In this three body problem, there is equilibrium - an uneasy equilibrium but it is there. Malaysia, China and the US will get some of what they want, but will not get ALL of what they want. But US-Malaysia ties have always been evolving.

Malaysia is a component of ASEAN's centrality vision, which is to preserve its centrality in regional affairs by promoting an inclusive and stable regional order and functioning as a mediator.

Got invited again by BusinessWorld Publishing Corporation to share my insights for one of their latest articles on international affairs. This article centered on the viability of the diplomatic protest made by Malaysia in light of the recent ratification of the twin maritime policies. This, I speculate, could possibly reignite again the talks on Sabah — depends highly on public clamor. Then again, however, even the UN recognizes Malaysian sovereignty over the disputed territory. Therefore, should talks once again transpire, our links with our neighbor — that is currently being bolstered — will certainly be affected. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ghkWw2eV?

"Central Asia has evolved from being a mere arena for the power plays of other nations to a region that asserts its autonomy. [...] In this era, where the goal is mutually beneficial partnerships among equals, Western countries are expected to contribute to projects as reliable partners rather than taking on a ‘protective’ role. Criticising Central Asian states or pressuring them to change policies on sensitive issues like Afghanistan without considering regional realities is unlikely to be received positively. Efforts to diminish Russian and Chinese influence are also unlikely to yield the desired results as they are viewed by the Central Asian republics as short-term political manoeuvres lacking a foundation of trust." A very hard task for "Western" countries and their outdated diplomatic system and world view...

Following up on the analysis of China-Indonesia relations under Indonesia's new administration, my colleagues Ryan M., Andrea Rayi G. Palita, Pier Ballo and I jointly published a comparison between Prabowo's visit to Beijing and Washington. Please check out the key takeaways from Prabowo's interactions for insights on how Indonesia plans to uphold its neutrality between U.S.-China tensions.

Experts Eldaniz Gusseinov of the Heydar Aliyev Center for Eurasian Studies at Ibn Khaldun University and Abakhon Sultonazarov, Regional Director for Central Asia at IWPR, delve into how the U.S. and China are shaping their strategies in Central Asia. They highlight a distinct shift where Central Asian nations are increasingly allowing external powers to guide their institutional processes. The analysis points to significant consequences for the region’s autonomy and its path towards integration, underscoring the importance of recognizing local interests and fostering internal unity to bolster a collective regional stance. ➡ https://lnkd.in/eUjbpBVc #IWPR #CabarAsia

Bait Al Amanah recently published an op-ed titled 'Malaysia’s Narrative in the South China Sea: Leveraging the Public and National Partnerships', authored by Fikry A. Rahman (Head of Foreign Affairs) and Karisma Putera A. (Senior Analyst, Foreign Affairs). The South China Sea has increasingly become a geopolitical hotbed, with escalating tensions among regional actors. Malaysia, with its vast interests in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), remains dedicated to a non-confrontational yet assertive approach. This op-ed outlines Malaysia's strategy for the South China Sea, emphasizing the importance of public awareness, strategic communication, and unified national partnerships. Fikry and Karisma argue for leveraging heightened public interest in the South China Sea issue to rally national support behind sovereignty and economic priorities. Additionally, the piece calls for fostering multilayered national partnerships that include public-private cooperation and coordination between federal and state levels. By adopting a proactive narrative and involving all sectors of society, Malaysia can better navigate the complexities of the South China Sea, ensuring its national interests are safeguarded. The op-ed was published on Astro AWANI. link: https://lnkd.in/gZTJimfw