Gregory Bloom’s Post

A new bipartisan call for higher DOD spending indicates positive prospects for the Aerospace, Defense, and Government Services (ADGS) industry in the coming years. According to Defense News, the Commission on the National Defense Strategy's recent report advocates for increased defense spending to address China and Russia's growing military investments. The report emphasizes the necessity for defense-related expenditures to rise from the current ~3% of GDP to ensure preparedness for potential conflicts on multiple fronts. The report also highlights the importance of reforming procurement practices, a move that is expected to particularly benefit agile vendors like Andruil Industries, who operate without the burden of legacy management structures seen in larger companies. This renewed focus on procurement reform is a crucial development within the industry landscape, offering innovation and efficiency enhancement opportunities. To read more about the implications of this call for higher defense spending, refer to the full report by clicking the link below: https://lnkd.in/ecYAvTkT #DODspending #DefenseIndustry #NationalDefenseStrategy #ProcurementReform #Andruil #DefenseNews

Key quotes from the recently released bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy. The alarm lights are flashing red. We have to wake up as a nation and back words with action. While past administrations talked about pivots to Asia they did not back it up - the latest defense budget shrank in real terms. Weakness invites aggression. "We are not confident that the U.S. military would succeed in a regional conflict against China." "China is in fact outpacing U.S. defense production and growth in force size and, increasingly, in force capability and is almost certain to continue to do so." "The 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission noted that “the security and wellbeing of the US are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America’s military superiority ... has eroded to a dangerous degree.” In our review, we find that the situation has deteriorated since the 2018 Commission’s report." "We believe that there is a high probability that the next war would be fought across multiple theaters, would involve multiple adversaries, and likely would not be concluded quickly." "The Commission finds that the U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) is unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs of the United States and its allies and partners." "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt." "A bipartisan “call to arms” is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11." "The United States is still failing to act with the urgency required, across administrations and without regard to governing party." https://lnkd.in/eFfZck-N.

A bipartisan congressional panel has issued a report calling for a massive defense buildup in the United States, warning that America's military is not prepared for a major war. The report argues that the U.S. faces a more dangerous world, with adversaries like China and Russia growing stronger, while the country's defense capabilities have not kept pace. The panel found that the U.S. is failing to act with the urgency required to address these threats, across multiple administrations and political parties. The panel's recommendations include reassessing the Pentagon's acquisition and innovation systems, immediately passing a supplemental defense bill, and considering politically unpopular measures like higher taxes or entitlement program reforms to fund the necessary defense buildup. The report draws comparisons to the Cold War era, when the U.S. spent 6.8% of its GDP on defense, compared to the current 3% spending level. The panel argues that the country's military should be capable of fighting across multiple theaters simultaneously, given the threats posed by Russia, China, and Iran in the Middle East. #DefensePolicy #NationalSecurity #MilitaryPreparedness #CongressionalReport #GeopoliticalRisks

Strategic Context: The U.S. faces a dramatically changed global landscape compared to a few years ago, with simultaneous wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The defense capacity is stretched, and the industrial base struggles to supply adequate military equipment. Challenges: China’s increasing military capabilities and economic influence have undermined U.S. primacy. China’s strategy includes space, cyber, and conventional forces, positioning it as a near-peer competitor. The rise of a new authoritarian bloc (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran) represents a significant global threat. Their cooperation challenges the U.S. in multiple theaters of conflict. Russia remains unpredictable, with a mass mobilization strategy that has shown the ability to absorb heavy losses, particularly in Ukraine. U.S. allies' support remains crucial, yet engagement in regions like Africa and the Arctic is faltering, giving adversaries room to expand their influence. Cyber & Technological Threats: Cyber warfare poses a direct risk to U.S. infrastructure, with both China and Russia capable of disrupting key services. The speed of technological development is outpacing the U.S. government’s ability to integrate new technologies into defense structures. Defense Readiness: The U.S. military is overburdened, and there is concern about whether the all-volunteer force can meet growing demands, especially in a multi-theater conflict environment. Recommendations for U.S. Strategy: Shift from a post-Cold War mentality to confront the new global security threats. This includes: Balancing investments in diplomacy, industrial capacity, and military modernization. Enhancing partnerships with allies and innovating in defense technologies. Adapting a multi-theater force structure that can handle conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Increasing defense spending, potentially up to Cold War levels, to fund modernization and readiness efforts. Build public support and awareness of national security risks, including reviving public trust in the military and reinvigorating interest in national service. Forge a national consensus on security priorities, emphasizing that U.S. leadership and defense are crucial for maintaining global order and economic stability.

Recommended reading for all those focusing on how policy impacts national defense capabilities. Commisison on the National Defense Strategy (Congressionally established in FY2022) published through RAND their most recent report in late August and I just got around to fully reading it. Although many of the conclusions listed here are not new and represent long term concensus of the Washington establishment, they nonetheless present a stark bi-partisan warning and a wake up call vis-a-vis investment priorities, need for strategic long term vision and re-imagining of what's needed both from talent and capabilities across all of government to maintain robust US global presence in the next decade. Some attention grabbing excerpts from the executive summary: "The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war. The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today." "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt. They are not anticipating disruptions to their power, water, or access to all the goods on which they rely. They have not internalized the costs of the United States losing its position as a world superpower" "The nation must also consider the possibility that future conflict could overwhelm the capacity of the active-duty force and should plan now to better prepare the reserve components and, potentially, a broader mobilization. More broadly, we support calls for increased levels of public and civil service to help provide a renewed sense of engagement and patriotism among the American people." Compare these statements to the report from NDSC from 2018: "Today, changes at home and abroad are diminishing U.S. military advantages and threatening vital U.S. interests. Authoritarian competitors—especially China and Russia—are seeking regional hegemony and the means to project power globally...In multiple regions, gray-zone aggression—intimidation and coercion in the space between war and peace—has become the tool of choice for many. The dangers posed by transnational threat organizations, particularly radical jihadist groups, have also evolved and intensified. Around the world, the proliferation of advanced technology is allowing more actors to contest U.S. military power in more threatening ways." (https://lnkd.in/es-yAyZ3) https://lnkd.in/ekwvKFAX 

"America’s odds of fighting a major war are the highest in 80 years, and its military isn’t prepared for one. This was the finding of a bipartisan panel tasked by Congress to review U.S. defense strategy. Its nearly 100-page report reveals a crisis of confidence in American national security. The commission chides a Pentagon it considers too plodding, a Congress it considers too partisan and multiple administrations it says have been too complacent to address threats from China, Russia and countries in the Middle East." #conflict #war #multifront #bipartisan #nationalsecurity #crisis #confidence #complacent #funding #chancesforwar #notprepared #congress #slow #bureaucracy #toslowtoadapt

RAND has just published the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. As I read through the report, I’m left asking myself: Where do we see the United States in the coming years? Will it continue to be a beacon of freedom and prosperity, or will this cease due to increased challenges from rising global powers like China? This latest RAND report was requested by Congress to address pressing questions regarding the state of readiness to defend the United States’ way of life. The below are some key highlights I took away: • Recruitment Challenges: Only 23% of Americans meet the eligibility requirements for military service, prompting a reassessment of recruitment strategies and standards. • Advanced Funding Requirements: The report calls for robust and stable defense funding, emphasizing the necessity of investing in modern technology and infrastructure to meet future challenges. • Industrial Production Shortfalls: The U.S. defense industrial base faces significant challenges in scaling up production to meet demand, potentially impacting military readiness and strategic capabilities. • Emerging Strategic Needs: There’s an urgent requirement for a more adaptable and innovative approach to maintaining U.S. strategic interests amid evolving global threats. • Global Threats and Strategic Environment: Analyzes the threats posed by China, Russia, and other actors, including cyber and space domains, underscoring the need for comprehensive strategic deterrence. • Domestic Challenges and Vision for Success: Discusses domestic constraints, such as bureaucratic inefficiencies and budget limitations, and outlines a vision for overcoming these issues to strengthen national defense. • Integration of National Power: Highlights the importance of leveraging all elements of national power, including diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools, alongside partnerships with allies and the private sector. • Innovation and Technological Advancement: Emphasizes the need for rapid adoption of new technologies and structural innovation within the Department of Defense to maintain a competitive edge. • Reassessment of Force Structure: Calls for a review and update of force-sizing constructs and capabilities to ensure alignment with current and future strategic demands. This report should serve as a critical resource for understanding and addressing the multifaceted challenges we face. As mentioned earlier, this report was just briefed to Congress, and I am eagerly awaiting to see how lawmakers will respond to these pressing issues. #NationalSecurity #DefenseStrategy #MilitaryReadiness #Congress #USMilitary #DefenseFunding #IndustrialBase #GlobalSecurity #StrategicPlanning #MilitaryRecruitment #EmergingThreats #ModernWarfare #RANDReport #USDefense #InnovationInDefense #Policy #StrategicInterests #DepartmentOfDefense #DOD #DefenseInnovation #MilitaryLeadership #FutureOfDefense #Congress https://lnkd.in/eYVX-Fdg

Serious implications for our great Nation. Senior Leaders talked about military transformation during my last 10 years on Active Duty, while near peer competitors actually modernized closing the distance on our hard earned technological advantage in multiple domains. It is time for bold, decisive action to modernize the force for robotic-enabled warfare against near peer Nation States determined to destroy democratic institutions around the world. Today, not 2030, not 2040.

"Today, our national security challenges all look like nails, and the Defense Department is by far the largest hammer in our toolkit. Through neglect and underinvestment, most of the U.S. government has drifted away from national security. Ask anyone at Defense what priority No. 1 is, and they will tell you it is strategic competition with China. Ask the same question at State, and, if you’re lucky, you’ll hear one of the 19 objectives listed in the Joint Strategic Plan—only one of which involves diplomacy for great-power competition. The departments of the Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security, Education, and others have made important contributions to an “all elements of national power” approach, along with domestic priorities, but lack the focus, resources, and authorities needed to secure the United States." https://lnkd.in/ekku66dW

Where do we sit with competition with #China? RAND provides us with some insights. Commission Findings and Recommendations for Policymakers In its report, the Commission makes the following findings and recommendations for DoD and Congress: 1. The United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. The trends are getting worse, not better. 2. DoD cannot, and should not, provide for the national defense by itself. The NDS calls for an “integrated deterrence” that is not reflected in practice today. A truly “all elements of national power” approach is required to coordinate and leverage resources across DoD, the rest of the executive branch, the private sector, civil society, and U.S. allies and partners. 3, Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions. DoD is operating at the speed of bureaucracy when the threat is approaching wartime urgency. https://lnkd.in/gj2xHD69