Stephen Nagy’s Post

The Commission of the National Defense Strategy calls for "urgent and major change" and "fundamental alterations to the way DoD operates..." Established by Congress to review and assess the 2022 National Defense Strategy, the Commission has presented its report, including recommendations: "The United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. The trends are getting worse, not better." "Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions. DoD is operating at the speed of bureaucracy when the threat is approaching wartime urgency." "U.S. industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict." "Congress should pass a supplemental appropriation to begin a multiyear investment in the national security innovation and industrial base. Additionally, Congress should revoke the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act spending caps and provide real growth for fiscal year 2025 defense and nondefense national security spending..." Full report at the link. #defenseindustry #freedomsforge #defensetech #defenseinnovation https://lnkd.in/exiK--xg

Tomorrow, Tuesday, December 10, 2024, from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. ET, the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defense initiative will host a hybrid fireside chat featuring former Congresswoman Jane Harman and former Ambassador Eric Edelman, the co-chairs of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy (NDS). The discussion will focus on the Commission’s key findings and recommendations, which was established by Congress to assess the 2022 NDS and identify the most pressing national security challenges facing the United States. In their conversation, Harman and Edelman will delve into the Commission’s report, which emphasizes the growing threats posed by China and Russia and the need for the United States to adopt a “Multiple Theater Force Construct.” This approach is designed to defend the homeland, deter adversaries, and, if necessary, defeat simultaneous threats across the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. With a new administration on the horizon, the Commission’s insights are crucial in shaping the future of US defense policy and the next National Defense Strategy. Don’t miss this opportunity to hear from two of the leading figures in defense policy as they share their perspectives on the future of US defense in an increasingly complex global environment. Register here: https://bit.ly/3BiHnmI #ForwardDefense #DefenseStrategy #NDS #ScowcroftCenter

This a great read and gives a pretty grave assessment. "The United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. The trends are getting worse, not better." "Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions. DoD is operating at the speed of bureaucracy when the threat is approaching wartime urgency." "U.S. industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict." "The DoD workforce and the all-volunteer force provide an unmatched advantage. However, recruiting failures have shrunk the force and raise serious questions about the all-volunteer force in peacetime, let alone in major combat. The civilian workforces at DoD and in the private sector also face critical shortfalls." "The Joint Force is at the breaking point of maintaining readiness today. Adding more burden without adding resources to rebuild readiness will cause it to break." https://lnkd.in/ggYyQ4nm

M-Day was Yesterday. We are in an undeclared national crisis. "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt. They are not anticipating disruptions to their power, water, or access to all the goods on which they rely. They have not internalized the costs of the United States losing its position as a world superpower. A bipartisan “call to arms” is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11. The support and resolve of the American public are indispensable." From the Commission on National Defense Strategy's 2024 report: https://lnkd.in/g94zBjnK

Key quotes from the recently released bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy. The alarm lights are flashing red. We have to wake up as a nation and back words with action. While past administrations talked about pivots to Asia they did not back it up - the latest defense budget shrank in real terms. Weakness invites aggression. "We are not confident that the U.S. military would succeed in a regional conflict against China." "China is in fact outpacing U.S. defense production and growth in force size and, increasingly, in force capability and is almost certain to continue to do so." "The 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission noted that “the security and wellbeing of the US are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America’s military superiority ... has eroded to a dangerous degree.” In our review, we find that the situation has deteriorated since the 2018 Commission’s report." "We believe that there is a high probability that the next war would be fought across multiple theaters, would involve multiple adversaries, and likely would not be concluded quickly." "The Commission finds that the U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) is unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs of the United States and its allies and partners." "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt." "A bipartisan “call to arms” is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11." "The United States is still failing to act with the urgency required, across administrations and without regard to governing party." https://lnkd.in/eFfZck-N.

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy released its final report, and it is a must-read. I couldn't agree more with the assessment that the U.S. is facing threats greater than any time since World War II and more complex than the Cold War, when it required our military to be able to execute a two-war strategy.    The Commission’s Chairwoman Jane Harman said, “We believe there needs to be fundamental change in the way the Pentagon and government agencies do business, plus a robust incorporation of technology and the tech sector, and full embrace of the capabilities of our partners and allies.”   We need to update the National Defense Strategy and force sizing approach to be able to credibly deter conflicts; if deterrence fails, our military needs to be able to fight and win at least two major theatre conflicts on a near simultaneous basis, as I have advocated for consistently. The American taxpayers and our warfighters deserve better results for the dollars we spend (and get more bang for the buck). It's essential we upgrade the strategy, and the Pentagon needs to spend its dollars smarter.   https://lnkd.in/e53KbH6K

Recommended reading for all those focusing on how policy impacts national defense capabilities. Commisison on the National Defense Strategy (Congressionally established in FY2022) published through RAND their most recent report in late August and I just got around to fully reading it. Although many of the conclusions listed here are not new and represent long term concensus of the Washington establishment, they nonetheless present a stark bi-partisan warning and a wake up call vis-a-vis investment priorities, need for strategic long term vision and re-imagining of what's needed both from talent and capabilities across all of government to maintain robust US global presence in the next decade. Some attention grabbing excerpts from the executive summary: "The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war. The United States last fought a global conflict during World War II, which ended nearly 80 years ago. The nation was last prepared for such a fight during the Cold War, which ended 35 years ago. It is not prepared today." "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt. They are not anticipating disruptions to their power, water, or access to all the goods on which they rely. They have not internalized the costs of the United States losing its position as a world superpower" "The nation must also consider the possibility that future conflict could overwhelm the capacity of the active-duty force and should plan now to better prepare the reserve components and, potentially, a broader mobilization. More broadly, we support calls for increased levels of public and civil service to help provide a renewed sense of engagement and patriotism among the American people." Compare these statements to the report from NDSC from 2018: "Today, changes at home and abroad are diminishing U.S. military advantages and threatening vital U.S. interests. Authoritarian competitors—especially China and Russia—are seeking regional hegemony and the means to project power globally...In multiple regions, gray-zone aggression—intimidation and coercion in the space between war and peace—has become the tool of choice for many. The dangers posed by transnational threat organizations, particularly radical jihadist groups, have also evolved and intensified. Around the world, the proliferation of advanced technology is allowing more actors to contest U.S. military power in more threatening ways." (https://lnkd.in/es-yAyZ3) https://lnkd.in/ekwvKFAX 

With the upcoming Australian Defence Industry Development Strategy conference on Tuesday, a recent and topical RAND report notes “Production is deterrence. But today, the United States has a DIB with too few people, too few companies, declining and unstable financial support, and insufficient production capacity to meet the needs of the Joint Force in both peacetime and wartime." Australia would be wise to take note of the findings of this report and invest in Defence Industry and supporting sectors https://lnkd.in/gKY4KDTq

They are absolutely right. Having led the defense business for a major Fortune commercial provider for several years, DoD does NOT have the framework in place to rapidly surge commercial capabilities, capacity and scale they will need for robustness, reliability and resiliency. Requirements will immediately exceed the DIB. For this next war DoD cannot wait for a national mobilization, the war will be over. DoD needs to urgently embrace the #WholeofNation now and clearly communicate to commercial companies what services might be needed so not only can business cases be resolved but most importantly to get commercial in #warfighter hands to OPlan and exercise so they can actually use it when they need it.

Congress established the Commission on the National Defense Strategy to examine and make recommendations about the US National Defense Strategy. The Commission's report highlights that the US is currently facing its most challenging global environment with severe ramifications since the Cold War. Unfortunately, trends are worsening, not improving. The report emphasizes the need for an "integrated deterrence" that is not being practiced today. To address these challenges effectively, a comprehensive "all elements of national power" approach is essential to coordinate and leverage resources across various sectors. Additionally, the Commission suggests that Congress should rescind the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act spending caps. Instead, real growth for fiscal year 2025 defense and nondefense national security spending should be provided, falling within the range recommended by the 2018 NDS Commission. It is imperative to align resources cohesively across the Department of Defense, the executive branch, the private sector, civil society, and US allies and partners for a robust and effective national defense strategy.