Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives’ Post

Reality of fossil fuel "transition" -> There is none happening right now. On the contrary -> Fossil Fuel companies are expanding and exploring fossil fuel projects instead of investing it into renewables: https://lnkd.in/daUxBMQ3 Our politics still fund fossil fuels at high levels (USD 7 Trillions per year! -> 7% of the world GDP -> 2 Trillions more than 2020!): https://lnkd.in/d82Ea4Zi Banks still heavily invest into fossil fuel projects (USD 6.9 Trillions, half of it for expansion!): https://lnkd.in/dXSSVm74 By the way: 1 Trillion -> 1.000 Billions -> 1.000.000 Millions

OCI has been assessing O&G super majors' stated climate pledges against their actions for years now. And to no surprise, none of these majors are on track and aligned with the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degC. While OCI's report delve into their methodology and criteria in assessing each Major's pledges and actions, I think the easiest rule of thumb is to check which of them are still engaged in new exploration projects. According to IPCC AR6 scenarios and IEA's Net-Zero pathways, it has been made abundantly clear that current proven reserves are more than sufficient for current consumption patterns and are more than enough to burst through our remaining carbon budget. It is way past time to give these companies any benefit of the doubt that they can manage this decarbonization journey on their own accord and nor should more carrots be used to entice them to do so...

Private Profits From Public Funds: A Billion-Dollar Deception In global South countries, fossil fuel subsidies divert resources from renewable energy, health and education. Even though many of these countries would like to raise taxes on these corporations, the Global Tax framework is determined by the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It is generally accepted that most of the countries in the OECD are high-income economies and among the richest on the planet. The global North essentially squeezes public funds from the countries where it gets its oil. This report by ActionAid reveals how fossil fuel companies manipulate and exert control over developing nations, which prevents any meaningful assistance in climate finance. #carboncapture #oilrecovery #EOR #emissions #subsidies #hydrogengas #fossilfuels #climatefinance #climate #UnitedNations #OECD #renewableenergy #energy #oil #COP29 https://lnkd.in/gNmjU2dx

The Trans Mountain Contradiction: How can Canada lead on climate while doubling down on oil? https://lnkd.in/gEuZh4Np A question all Canadians should be asking about our dirty little stranded asset—the $25bn Trans Mountain #Pipeline that nobody wanted, but that ordinary Canadians have to pay for. And don't get me started on Canada's $18.6bn #subsidies to the #fossil fuel and petrochemical industries in 2023 ALONE.

New from CCPA: Canada is failing to prepare for a net-zero future w/ a significantly reduced role for the oil sands. New research paints a catastrophic picture of what's to come w/out deepening transition plans. https://lnkd.in/dAwYbvA9

In my recent book, The Future of Energy, I have a think about how the coming years will play out for the oil industry as, for the first time in its history, it comes face to face with a market in systemic decline. And it's an important social question. A number of countries' public finances depend on selling oil; many millions of people have pension funds invested in oil shares; and no sector has proven more effective at lobbying governments for special treatment than oil. But the oil industry is weird. Getting on for half the oil extracted comes from OPEC+ countries, which manipulate production and therefore the price, for economic and political reasons - the remainder comes from companies that have to accept the price set by the cartel. And OPEC+ isn't an entirely happy cartel. Countries bicker about what the strategy should be. Saudi Arabia as the biggest producer is uniquely able to influence the global price by ramping production up and down. As global demand starts contracting, the sensible strategy for either OPEC+ collectively or Saudi Arabia individually would be to use its price-setting power to put western companies out of production, one by one. Because in a world where demand is falling but no company has a plan to wind down its own production, there have to be losers. And the Saudis have tried this before, in 2014 when they flooded the market in a bid to kibosh the US shale industry. This month we've seen developments that suggest - I'm not putting it stronger than that - that the dog-eat-dog era isn't far away. Two weeks ago, the International Energy Agency revised its forecast for oil demand growth in China this year downwards, from the 410,000 barrels it predicted in July to 180,000. As China has driven global demand growth in recent years, this was a big deal. This week, Saudi Arabia indicated its intention to increase production. Something had to give: and it was the share prices of Shell and BP which saw a combined $10bn wiped off their value. Now: Saudi Arabia, by common consent, needs oil to command around $100 per barrel to pay for its national expenditure. The combination of its production hike and damper demand growth has pushed the price down close to $70 - and this is even before Libyan output returns (a political power struggle has kept exports below half their designated level. So presumably, higher production and a lower price isn't the Saudis' desired end-state. The only way to push the price back up is by using an extended period of low prices to inflict terminal pain on other, smaller players, and then turning the taps down again. And big though BP and Shell are, they're a lot smaller than Saudi Aramco. Like I said - this month offers no more than a suggestion. But seriously - against this picture, would you put your money into oil stocks, or advocate for your government seeing oil as a route to prosperity? https://lnkd.in/edGZYhkT

Continued investments by big developed nations in fossil fuels – putting the world on risk for more climate catastrophe and crisis! The US has handed out 1,453 new oil and gas licences, accounting for half of the total globally and 83% of all licences handed out by wealthy nations. UK handed out more licences than any other country in May, China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, is forecast to approve the most oil and gas blocks in the rest of 2024. Is this the need of the world as the transition to alternative energy sources is slower than anticipated? How do these investment impact the global markets and oil prices? For insights and research related to understanding impact of these global events, climate crisis and energy transition, reach out to me directly or visit our website www.Euromonitor.com #energytransition #fossilfuel #marketstrends #investments # consulting #Euromonitor #marketresearch #research #macroeconomics

This recent InfluenceMap report presents that 57 key entities are behind 80% of global CO2 emissions between 2016 and 2022. Major emitters like Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and Coal India have even ramped up production, contributing to record CO2 levels. What is striking, is the fact that this is actually relatively small number. You could put them all in a small room. That’s really where consensus for change needs to happen..

Pierre's "Axe the Tax", Danielle's " Scrap the Cap" are catchy slogans we should translate to ... Stop any Canadian action on Climate Change. Stop any progress towards net-zero. The ad campaigns spread fear. Making false connections between inflation post pandemic in Canada, US, EU and beyond was linked to Canada's small carbon price. Does Pierre really think that any policy in Canada drives inflation worldwide? He doesn't but it is good politics. Danielle is afraid of cold dark nights without wind. Albertan's will freeze in their homes. Wind and solar are not the only ingredients in a future net-zero energy supply. Biofuels (including renewable natural gas, ethanol and biodiesel) and an extended, inter-jurisdictional electrical grid are existing and proven technologies to keep Albertan's warm. Let's return to ABC (Anybody But Conservatives) for our next Canadian election (Ontario, Alberta too). All other parties (PPC doesn't count) strongly support Climate Action.

A recent Special Report published in The Economist suggests that although global climate policy is likely to cause a structural decline in oil demand, oil producers located in the Gulf region are still expected to flourish. This analysis is good news for the small group of VLCC owners who have been on a VLCC spending spree in recent weeks. Through the course of 2023, VLCCs on order had fallen to a long-time low and the few contracts that were placed were at significantly higher prices and had long lead times. 👉 Learn more in the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gDd4u2eh