Arkestro’s Post

Meteorologists are forecasting a particularly intense Atlantic hurricane season this year; they expect 20 – 25 named storms with a possibility of 30 or more, according to reports from AccuWeather in April 2024. Colorado State University similarly forecasts an estimated 23 named storms this year. The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the US oil and natural gas industry. https://buff.ly/3RrcAZF #leveltrac #levelmeasurement #ASME #remotewaterlevelindicator #oilandgas #refinery #engineering #questtecsolutions #ABMA #magneticgauge #magneticgage #magnetrac #flashing #boiling #outgassing #houston #flashing #maggauge #oil #gas #biofuel #Biomass #SustainableAviationFuel #SAF #gwr #guidedwaveradar #HurricaneSeason

The intent of this chart was to highlight the impact of storms on oil production and supply to the market. But the first thing I noticed is the shrinking share of market the Gulf occupies (without reduced production). The more diverse supply has increased overall production and reduced the impact of any specific event. Which I think most consumers would appreciate in the reduced volatility of the end product.

𝙂𝙪𝙡𝙛 𝙊𝙞𝙡 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙃𝙞𝙩 𝙃𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙗𝙮 𝙃𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙚 𝙍𝙖𝙛𝙖𝙚𝙡 Over a quarter (27.59%) of oil production and 16.67% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remain offline due to Hurricane Rafael, per the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). The storm has disrupted operations on 37 platforms and forced rig evacuations, with cumulative losses reaching 2.07 million barrels of oil and 1.12 billion cubic feet of natural gas. BSEE has activated its Hurricane Response Team to support operators in restoring production while closely monitoring environmental protections. 𝑲𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒔:  482,790 barrels of oil and 310 million cubic feet of gas shut-in 37 platforms offline, 3 rigs moved as a precaution Gulf of Mexico accounts for ~15% of U.S. crude oil and 2% of dry natural gas production As Rafael weakens to a tropical storm, the Gulf’s role in U.S. energy resilience is again highlighted. #EnergyResilience #GulfOfMexico #HurricaneRafael #OilProduction #NaturalGas #BSEE https://lnkd.in/gZ9x5FH9

US oil majors brace for tropical storm Francine by halting operations. The approaching storm Francine could affect nine oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, with personnel being evacuated and production suspended. American oil giants Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell have evacuated personnel and suspended operations at platforms in the Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of Hurricane Francine. The National Weather Service sees risks for nine production platforms in the Gulf. The approaching storm threatens US oil and gas production facilities and coastal LNG plants. Storm surges of 1.5-3 m high may be observed in the Louisiana region, and upper Texas is also at risk. Analysts estimate a loss of production of about 150 thousand bpd. And it is not yet known whether the elements will affect oil refining, and most American refineries are located on the coast - in Texas and Louisiana. Last time, Hurricane Beryl put the plants out of action for several days. The federal marine waters of the Gulf of Mexico account for about 15% of total oil production in the US and 2% of gas production. Oil prices rose 1.5% on Monday, while American gas contracts fell 5% on hurricane fears. Although, at the moment, both benchmarks — American WTI and European Brent — are falling in price after the opening of trading in Europe. In July, Hurricane Beryl killed eight people and left more than 2 million people in Texas without power for several days. The shutdown affected the energy infrastructure and left hundreds of gas stations in the States without power. https://lnkd.in/e4UmmHt3

Meteorologists are forecasting a particularly intense Atlantic hurricane season this year; they expect 20–25 named storms with a possibility of 30 or more, according to reports from AccuWeather in April. Colorado State University similarly forecasts an estimated 23 named storms this year. The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil and natural gas industry. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms, but only one hurricane made landfall in the United States. None of last year’s storms had a significant impact on U.S. petroleum infrastructure. https://lnkd.in/erKN2Yv6 #hurricaneseason #petroleum #oil #infrastructure

Meteorologists are forecasting a particularly intense #Atlantic hurricane season this year; they expect 20–25 named storms with a possibility of 30 or more, according to reports from #AccuWeather in April. #Colorado State University similarly forecasts an estimated 23 named storms this year. The potential for a stronger #hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. #oil and #naturalgas industry. Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms, but only one hurricane made landfall in the #UnitedStates. None of last year’s storms had a significant impact on U.S. #petroleum infrastructure. More information on energy infrastructure and potential storm risks is available using our Energy Atlas. What is hurricane season? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (#NOAA) National Hurricane Center defines the Atlantic hurricane season as running from June 1 through November 30. Generally, June is the month when the earliest named storms begin forming in the Atlantic Basin, and the most severe hurricanes usually form in August and early September. In the United States, hurricanes most often hit the Southeast (PADD 1C) and the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3). How do hurricanes affect petroleum markets? Hurricanes primarily affect petroleum markets by disrupting #crudeoil production and refinery operations. Offshore crude oil in the United States is concentrated in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (#GOM) and could be significantly limited by inclement weather. Offshore oil and natural gas floating production units must contend with some of the most severe hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms; they must have emergency procedures to evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily halt production. In 2023, GOM crude oil production accounted for 14% of U.S. crude oil production. Refining of crude oil is also affected by hurricanes in certain parts of the Gulf Coast. Refineries along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast account for almost half of U.S. refining capacity. These facilities risk flooding or power outages associated with major storms or hurricanes. Like offshore floating production facilities, many refinery operators will evacuate nonessential personnel and temporarily stop production if they believe severe weather might injure employees or damage their facilities. Do hurricanes affect natural gas markets? A hurricane could also reduce natural gas production in the GOM, which is mostly associated gas production; however, recent hurricanes have had a much smaller impact on total U.S. natural gas supply because natural gas production in the GOM has been declining for years. The GOM provided less than 2% of total U.S. marketed natural gas production in 2023, down from 17% in 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita interrupted significant volumes of natural gas production.

Hurricane Beryl landfall in Texas had some impacts. Assesment is still on course. Beryl made landfall near the coastal town of Matagorda, Texas, on Monday morning, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (129 kph) and posing problems for the heart of the country's energy sector. The ship channel that leads to the Port of Corpus Christi, the country's leading crude oil export hub, reopened on Monday afternoon after having no significant impact from the storm. The port and the channel had closed on Sunday. At least three vessels entered the Corpus Christi bay on Monday, ship tracking data on Kpler and LSEG showed. Gibson Energy said its Gateway crude export terminal in Corpus Christi was operational. Enbridge which also runs crude oil export facilities near Corpus Christi, said all of its assets, with the exception of its Tres Palacios gas storage facility, were operational. Terminal operations at the Port of Houston will remain closed on Tuesday as it continues to assess and repair damage on Monday afternoon, the port said in a statement. "We are still dealing with rain and wind," a spokesperson said. The port closure left a few vessels stranded off Galveston, said Rohit Rathod, an analyst at energy data firm Vortexa, adding that congestion should ease from Tuesday without a major impact on weekly trade flows. Shell and Chevron said they had shut production or evacuated personnel from their Gulf of Mexico offshore platforms. It was not immediately clear how much production had been shut in as a result of Beryl. Freeport LNG, the third-largest liquefied natural gas facility in the U.S., said over the weekend it had ramped down production and it would resume operations after the storm had passed. Formosa Plastics, meanwhile, experienced a malfunction with a gas compressor system during a shutdown for the storm at its Point Comfort facility, according to a state regulatory filing. Formosa said it has temporarily shut down operations at its Point Comfort plant site, and it is actively monitoring the situation. Refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp reduced production over the weekend at its 165,000 barrel-per-day Corpus Christi plant, sources said. Marathon Petroleum declined to comment on its 585,000-bpd Galveston Bay refinery operations. Chevron did not provide specific comments on the status of its Pasadena refinery southeast of Houston, and LyondellBasell declined to comment on its 268,000-bpd Houston refinery.

This might effect the supply of spot #LNG to Asian and European #gasmarkets https://lnkd.in/eX8yjXiA Meteorologists are forecasting a particularly intense Atlantic hurricane season this year; they expect 20–25 named storms with a possibility of 30 or more, according to reports from AccuWeather in April. Colorado State University similarly forecasts an estimated 23 named storms this year. The potential for a stronger hurricane season suggests heightened risk for weather-related production outages in the U.S. oil and natural gas industry.

The NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration has issued its most aggressive Atlantic hurricane season forecast on record, predicting an 85% chance of an above-average season with 17 to 25 named storms. This poses significant risks to Louisiana's oil and natural gas industry, as Gulf Coast refineries account for nearly half of the U.S. refining capacity. Refineries in Louisiana, including ExxonMobil’s Baton Rouge refinery, could see over 1 million barrels per day of capacity taken offline due to major storms. Severe damage could lead to extended shutdowns or permanent closures, as seen with Phillips 66’s Alliance refinery after Hurricane Ida in 2021. Offshore production units in the Gulf of Mexico, which contribute significantly to U.S. crude oil and natural gas production, also face severe hazards. Hurricanes could disrupt supply chains for petroleum products, affecting the entire U.S. oil and natural gas industry. #OilAndGas #EnergyIndustry #HurricaneSeason #Louisiana #Refineries #NOAA #StormPreparedness https://lnkd.in/gci-VDZT

EIA: Forecast strong hurricane season presents risk for the U.S. oil and natural gas industry While NOAA predictions forecast an intense Atlantic hurricane season, this solid analysis reviews the impacts of past strong hurricanes on the Gulf Coast oil and natural gas production. Yet it is important to remember that the U.S. is producing more crude oil than ever before and more than any other country. #energy #oil #hurricanes https://lnkd.in/ebCYJYYW