𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴? 🤔
That should be an easy question, right? Well, yes, but there are a number of ways to answer it.
Some might say it is shrinking because the value of turnover has fallen with less liquidity and lower prices.
Others might say it is booming, based on the volume of capital going into upstream project development and market infrastructure (ratings agencies, exchanges, MRV, tokenisaton, investment platforms).
My view is that the 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: the cancellation of a carbon credit as a way to offset residual emissions. That's why credits exist: to be retired.
On that basis, 𝘆𝗲𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴📈 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 if we are going to 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 🚀. Here's how to think about it:
👉 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀, the third record year out of the past four.
👉 To realise that goal, we need to see around 47 million tonnes retired in Q4. Average retirement of the past three Q4 was 53 million, mostly in December.
👉 As you can see in the chart, retirements have been fairly range-bound between 5 million and 25 million per month since the beginning of 2021, with high seasonality (Q4 is always the biggest).
👉 For the 5 years between the Paris Agreement and 2021, compound annual growth averaged almost 50%. That's the level of growth we need to resume and well exceed, a long way ahead of 2030.
👉 The number of companies retiring credits is also growing, although that is obscured by the number of anonymous retirers.
👉 All of this is small compared to 100X growth we need to save the 2C Paris target.
𝗦𝗼, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻? No-one knows for sure, but the outlook is positive:
👉 3 years of retirement stability and 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮 "𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲" 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁: minority but vocal and effective critics (some criticisms warranted, many of them not), creeping anti-ESG, runaway inflation, conflict, energy insecurity.
👉 The data show that in aggregate, 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴, but prospective participants have been given implicit permission to wait. Those companies will have to come off the fence as the climate crisis worsens, pressure builds and credit quality is assured.
👉 We have yet to see any demand impact from the 𝗩𝗖𝗠/𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 underway with a few exceptions like the RSA carbon tax.
👉 Ditto 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀.
All of that is why at Carbon Growth Partners we are staying the course.