UCLA Anderson Forecast

Happy 2025! Would you like to stay abreast of the #UCLAForecast's latest news and happenings? Sign up ⬇️ to receive occasional e-mails about upcoming events and commentary from our economists regarding new research. ➡️https://lnkd.in/g8YqMZN3

In this UCLA Magazine article, #UCLAForecast economist Clement Bohr is 1 of 5 experts from across campus who shared what they expect for 2025. Click ⬇️ to read more about what Clement believes we'll see across California and the U.S. economy.

In the latest episode of the UCLA Anderson School of Management's How the World Works, Jerry Nickelsburg explains the impact of the proposed Trump tariffs. Click ⬇️ to listen to Jerry's interview during this podcast with Warren Olney. ➡️https://lnkd.in/gQXr3Pxr

Happy Holidays from the #UCLAForecast team!

Thank you Jamie Montgomery for delivering the Robertson Lecture Series Keynote Address during the #UCLAForecast’s Winter 2024 Economic Outlook. We’re most appreciative for your participation and for sharing such valuable insights with our audience.

The #UCLAForecast would like to extend its sincere gratitude to the following sponsors for their support of our work. Thanks so much for contributing to all the success we've experienced this calendar year and looking forward to everything that lies ahead in 2025!

The #UCLAForecast's 2024 4th Quarter Review is now available! Click ⬇️ to read the latest! https://lnkd.in/g3iyCxif This edition features a number of highlights that include: ➡️Recap and recording of the Winter 2024 Quarterly Outlook held in collaboration with the UCLA Fink Center for Finance ➡️Recent episodes of the FORECAST IN FIVE hosted by Seth Katz ➡️Latest Forecast Direct interview hosted by William Yu ➡️Update on California Climate from Mercury Insurance Climate Economist Zhiyun Li ➡️Profiles for the newest members of the UCLA Anderson Forecast's Board of Advisors

We’re so pleased that Jacqueline Sotelo, an MBA fellow of The Riordan Programs was able to join us for the #UCLAForecast’s Winter 2024 Economic Outlook last week. Jacqueline reflected on her overall experience and shared several key takeaways. 

For the #UCLAForecast's Winter 2024 Economic Outlook, we're glad that Peggy Sin (EMBA '24) was able to attend the conference in-person. Peggy was kind of enough to share this in-depth summary ⬇️ about her overall experience and what she learned. UCLA Anderson Forecast Write Up - Peggy Sin I look forward to the quarterly UCLA Anderson School of Management forecasts on the state of the economy because it helps me understand different perspectives beyond my industry and get insights into what political & global forces will affect the US economy. Last week’s forecast presented National and California economic predictions post-election. However, these can be difficult to pinpoint due to so many factors at play. Some factors I’m taking into consideration which will impact job search, spending decisions, and investments include: ➡️The U.S. economy recently showed positive GDP & GDI growth, closing the gap after revisions. The U.S. GDP rate in Q2 2024 was 3% compared to California’s GDP at 2.8%, which is growing at a slower rate.   ➡️U.S. projections include more tax cuts, deregulation, less antitrust, and more M&A activity. It will be interesting to see more major merger announcements like Omnicom-IPG. Factors driving inflation include rising deficits, tariffs, mass deportations, deglobalization, and energy transition (AI requiring huge amounts of power). ➡️California industries predicted for growth include durable goods manufacturing, with new factories to open in ‘25/26. Tech services layoffs will stabilize, and the industry is expected to grow due to AI investments. Entertainment layoffs contributed to CA’s unemployment rate, but should level out. ➡️Sorry millennials, boomers are holding onto low 3% mortgage interest rates instead of taking on current 6.5-7% rates, so inventory will continue to be tight and prices stay high.  ➡️Potential tariff increases ranging from 25-35%+ on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China could stoke inflation further in the U.S. Imports such as cars, crude petroleum, and electronics along with predicted mass deportations will affect food prices as well. Perhaps don’t delay those types of purchases before costs get passed along to the consumer.  ➡️Anticipate this week’s rate cut of a quarter point but we’ll see fewer cuts in 2025. ➡️Policy mentions of mass deportations of up to 1M a year could particularly affect the construction and food industry. These deportations will require higher wages to attract domestic workers but if that falls short, then it’ll lead to product shortages and more expensive food prices.  ➡️It has been a bull stock market, with nearly 3x increase in S&P 500 from November ‘20 to ‘24. Those dopamine surges with the rise in 401k gains were certainly satisfying. Something to consider is the CAPE ratio is at 38.50, which is the highest since the dot com bubble. This signals that over the next 10 years, there will be fewer returns so we could see smaller long-term returns in the S&P 500. 

We're pleased that Colliers' Gil Borok was able to join the #UCLAForecast's Seth Katz for this latest episode of the FORECAST in FIVE! Gil is also a UCLA Anderson School of Management alum and we're most appreciative that he was able to share a number of valuable insights with our viewers!