Oxford Partnership

ON TRADE TRACKER TO END OF NOVEMBER 2024 - WHAT NEXT FOR THE ON TRADE, POST BUDGET? As reported by The Morning Advertiser Following on from the budget in October 2024, elements of the On Trade find themselves in a more precarious position than ever, as we reach the end of November 2024. Increases in Business Rates, National Insurance, the Minimum Wage, and Alcohol Duty (in some sectors), compound the pressure on an already weathered marketplace. A snapshot of key data over the recent 4-weeks to the end of November 2024 tells the story in more detail: City Centre volumes were down -16.1%, and previously reduced opening hours remain flat YoY, as operators retain the need to close earlier and be more selective with their opening times / staffing costs. In the 4 weeks to the end of September 2024 (prior to the budget), City Volumes were down only -3.0%, a really stark shift in a short span of time. Over the recent MAT both Total Volume and City Centre volume was down circa -1.5%. A SPIKE IN THE DECLINE OF OUTLET NUMBERS In the 12 Weeks to the end of September 2024 (Week 39), there was an element of green shoots for the trade, with outlet numbers at long last starting to show some mild signs of stabilisation, albeit small, with numbers up +0.3%. The recent 4-week figures to the end of November 2024 now show the outlet trend fall from +0.3% to -1.1%. Are we seeing a wave of post-budget pressures on outlets, allied to the existing cost of living issues, causing precarious outlets to permanently or temporarily close? DWELL TIME AND OUTLET ‘BUSYNESS’ CLIMBING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY Whilst consumer dwell time is up marginally by +0.8% towards the end of November 2024, it didn’t quite match up to the encouraging year to date rise of +2.6%. Outlet occupancy (‘busyness’) rates remained slightly up by +1.4% across the 4 weeks of November 2024, but with there being a spike in losses of outlets in the on trade we can see why overall volumes declined by -1.8% in the latest 4-weeks. CONSUMER SPENDING By the end of November 2024, Pubs, bars and clubs saw no YoY growth in Consumer Spending - where previously this trend was up +0.6% to the end of September 2024. It was also a difficult month for Restaurants, which declined in consumer spending by -0.6% year-on-year, having been +1.4% in growth, at the end of Sept 2024. Suggesting a hit to consumer confidence and hospitality spending as a result of the recalibration period after the budget. BEER VOLUMES Draught Beer volumes are now down -2.0% year to Date (YTD). World Lager +7.7% and Stout +16.0% remain the only star performers, whilst Core Lager -6.8%, World 4% Lager -3.9%, Premium Lager -3.2%, Craft -10.0% and Ale -5.3% all saw a tough decline in sales on the YTD, and particularly within the latest 4-weeks. #ontrade #pubs #hospitality #analysis #beernews #xmastrade #pub #bars #restaurants #performance #beer #food #drinks #restaurant #cocktails #drink #party #craftbeer #wine #nightlife #publife #teamoxford

Great to have attended the UKHospitality Christmas Lunch with colleagues and friends of Oxford Partnership Here’s hoping for a strong 2025! #hospitality #pubs #teamoxford

In the build-up to Xmas and the New Year, we will analyse and publish hospitality performance weekly and on all key days. As reported by The Morning Advertiser: The period up 23rd November sees Pubs see another week of flat trading. Outlet opening hours are flat this week which is an improvement on the year-to-date trend of -2.0%. This change in trading hours is driven by the increased levels of consumer usage this week with occupancy (busyness) showing an increase of +0.7% vs. the same week last year, however, the length of visit has decreased (dwell time) by -0.8%. No doubt the snow and cold snap that landed during the week kept people out of city centres and the overall drop in dwell time shows that people weren't hanging around probably due to their concerns about the weather. STOUT CONTINUES ITS UPWARD TRAJECTORY Sales of draught beer and cider saw a drop of -7.3% this week driven predominantly by City Centre outlets down a staggering -23.6%.   Stout continues to drive forward with the category up an impressive +15.9% this week with no other category matching its phenomenal growth. World Lager saw a decline of -3.8%, Core Lager -13.5% and World 4% -11.3%, all suffering from an uncertain marketplace.  Alison Jordan, CEO of The Oxford Partnership, comments: “It is disheartening to see yet another flat week as we head into December. However, this reflects the fact that it was the week before payday this year versus a payday weekend last year which probably played a part in it, as well as the inclement weather, as some parts of the UK had snow.” #ontrade #pubs #hospitalitym #analysis #beernews #xmastrade #pub #bar #beer #food #drinks #restaurant #cocktails #music #drink #party #craftbeer #wine #nightlife #publife #teamoxford

“The tough trading conditions for UK hospitality continue to bite so the great hope is for an outstandingly successful Christmas." Oxford Partnership

In the build-up to Xmas and the New Year, we will be analysing and publishing hospitality performance every week. As reported by The Morning Advertiser https://lnkd.in/gc_zqtkX The period up 16th November sees the market remaining flat as the entire hospitality industry continues to digest the aftereffects of the budget and operators try to plan their business models into 2025. Outlet opening hours have a marginal decline -0.05% this week which is an improvement on the year-to-date trend of -2.1%. This change in trading hours is driven by the increased levels of consumer usage this week occupancy (busyness) showing an increase of +0.7% vs. the same week, however the length of visit has stayed flat (dwell time). Sales of draught beer and cider saw a marginal uptick this week driven by Rural and Suburban outlets. London saw a big increase, +4% versus the same week in 2023, as last year the city was blighted with the threat of tube strikes which kept consumers at home. Stout continues to drive forward with the category up an impressive +23.9% this week with World Lager also performing strongly +5.4%. Core Lager (-7.6%) and World 4% (-4%) performed poorly this week with Premium Lager starting to see improvements with only a -1.7% decline versus a year-to-date trend of -3.2%. Alison Jordan, CEO of The Oxford Partnership, comments: “The tough trading conditions for UK hospitality continue to bite so the great hope is for an outstandingly successful Christmas - we all have our fingers tightly crossed. Sadly the storms over the weekend did little to help as for many operators, their consumers didn’t venture out in the bad weather” #ontrade #pubs #hospitality #analysis #beernews #xmastrade #pub #bar #beer #food #drinks #restaurant #cocktails #music #drink #party #craftbeer #wine #nightlife #publife #teamoxford

A tough budget drove concern throughout the whole of the On Trade with cost increases to business rates, employers' national insurance, and the national minimum wage. JD Wetherspoon, which runs nearly 800 pubs across the country, said its tax and business costs are expected to increase by about £60 million over the next tax year.  Our On Trade Tracker provides a top-level snapshot of hospitality performance in the UK, covering Openings & Closures, Opening Hours, venue % Occupancy, average consumer Dwell Time (mins), Draught Beer & Cider Sales, and Credit Card Transactions. Download the latest edition: https://bit.ly/3AtU7Xm Draught volume data powered by Vianet Group PLC Credit Card transactional data supplied by Barclays UK #ontrade #ontradetracker #pubs #beersales #hospitality #analysis #performance #teamoxford

Our latest On Trade report, as reported by The Morning Advertiser, is concerning for the trade with rising costs and falling footfall. Fingers crossed for a bumper festive season. https://lnkd.in/eCGh63JR #ontrade #pubs #hospitality #performance #analysis #beernews #tradingpatterns #teamoxford

We’re proud to be key data intelligence partners in this incredibly important initiative - Prevent Violence against Women and Girls. #oursafercity #preventvawg #teamoxford https://lnkd.in/ebGX9_Rf

The hope of an Indian Summer sadly never came to fruition and, as a result, the 4 weeks to the end of September brought disappointing results for the UK on trade. September saw draught beer volume continue to decline by 3.9%. This was still a 1.6% improvement on the previous month where draught beer volumes declined 5.5%. YTD volume continued the downward trajectory with a decline of 2%, a further 0.2% drop on August - as can be seen in our latest Market Watch Snapshot Report, available here: https://bit.ly/3BZAwP6 Our monthly report tracks essential metrics such as venue Openings & Closures, Opening Hours, venue % Occupancy, average consumer Dwell Time (mins), Draught Beer & Cider Sales, and Credit Card Transactions. Draught volume data powered by Vianet Group PLC Credit card transactional data supplied by Barclays UK #ontrade #ontradetracker #pubs #beersales #hospitality #analysis #performance #teamoxford

Great to attend The Morning Advertiser Leaders event in Oxford today where are very own Alison Jordan talked through the characteristics of students/Gen Z, and how hospitality needs to adapt to capitalise on their changing preferences. An informative day with all the core challenges and opportunities facing hospitality discussed. #maleaders #hospitality #pubs #trends #analysis #teamoxford