The Decision-Making Studio

As we start 2025, it's important to remember that the only thing we have full control over is the quality of our decisions. Our relationship with uncertainty can make that challenging. Uncertainty is intertwined with emotion. Recognising that is powerful. This was the theme of The Decision-Making Studio's recent "Studio Letter" (https://lnkd.in/eVU4yVB7 ) and of a short "in-betweenisode" of The Decision-Making Studio Podcast (formerly "All Things Risk") Here is a short clip. The 14 min episode is available on Spotify (https://lnkd.in/esjrsvtd) Apple podcasts ( https://lnkd.in/eTshtNqc ), on our podcast page ( https://lnkd.in/eigMukT4 ) or wherever you get your podcasts. Happy New Year and all the very best for 2025! _ _ _ _ _ I am the Founder of The Decision-Making Studio and I help leaders and organisations make quality decisions under uncertainty. Get in touch: https://lnkd.in/exrHTMXj What does a quality decision look like? Our “FOCUS” framework: https://lnkd.in/e2Ei_kx2

Daniel Wagner joined me on the final 2024 episode of The Decision-Making Studio Podcast (formerly "All Things Risk") for a look ahead at 2025 from a geopolitical lens. Daniel offered views on Trump 2.0 and implications for US foreign policy, China-US relations, the Middle East, climate change and the COP process, and much more. We also delve into some implications of the state of the world for organisational decision-making. The episode can be found on The Decision-Making Studio's podcast page here, which also includes links to it on the major platforms - https://lnkd.in/eigMukT4 The episode and show is on all the major platforms including: Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eFztzT45 Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/enxxy48R Audible: https://lnkd.in/e5ayuWPq YouTube: https://lnkd.in/ezQfnBnt Subscribe and get all future episodes automatically when they are released.

Grab a morning beverage and enjoy the latest edition of The Studio Letter. This edition is all about uncertainty, beautiful uncertainty.

The browser version of the latest edition of "The Studio Letter" is now out! It's available here: https://lnkd.in/erAGSqfV

“It’s important to remember that big data all comes from the same place – the past” – Rory Sutherland, from his book "Alchemy - The Magic of Original Thinking in a World of Mind-Numbing Conformity" This quote has been a recurring theme to me throughout the year. I think I've shared it as much as any other over the past 12 months. As I reflect on what 2024 was all about, I keep coming back to one thing: the past. That the United States – for the second time - elected a President who promised a return to a past that never really existed seems to coincide appropriately with all the AI mania to which we’ve been subjected. Generative AI – as far as I understand it, because I am no AI expert - is about the past. Large language models are giant and powerful ‘word casinos’ trained on data – from the past. The next word or sentence they give us is based on probabilities. However, they provide no meaning and no insight on their own - we do that. They are no more sentient than a slot machine. And, they certainly aren’t oracles (as an aside, has anyone else been just a bit creeped out by at least one post this past year which went “I asked Chat GPT about [x] and here is what it said….?) Of course, they process language powerfully and in addition to helping us automate certain tasks, they open up interesting possibilities. I, like many others, have enjoyed experimenting with AI tools and will continue doing so. However, it seems to me that that the past year underscores that we need to think more creatively about the future and its inherent uncertainty. Imagination, critical thinking, curiosity and courage all seem pretty essential. And, these are all skills and qualities needed for better decision-making. So, if you are thinking about the coming year and beyond, perhaps it makes sense to consider how to lean into those things. I think a good place to start is by considering what we don’t know, to get curious and excited about uncertainty -  rather than to look for answers and meaning in places where they cannot be found. Thoughts are welcome of course. Wishing you a season of rest, reflection, curiosity and creativity. _ _ _ _ _ I am the Founder of The Decision-Making Studio and I help leaders and organisations make quality decisions under uncertainty. Get in touch: https://lnkd.in/exrHTMXj What does a quality decision look like? Our “FOCUS” framework: https://lnkd.in/e2Ei_kx2

This was such an enjoyable episode of The Decision-Making Studio Podcast (formerly "All Things Risk") with Marischa van Zantvoort MSc MBA and Alasdair Philip that we turned it into two! Below is a very insightful clip from Alasdair that provides a useful example of the value of developing some decision-making priorities - based on values - that can be turned into useful heuristics. The full episode can be found wherever you get your podcasts - it's episodes 229 and 230 and you can find the show via The Decision-Making Studio podcast page here: https://lnkd.in/eigMukT4 The video version of this episode is on our YouTube channel here: https://lnkd.in/e5jDg742

🎄 If you’re stuck on some last-minute Xmas shopping decisions, here’s a bit of help from behavioural science. Eva van den Broek and Tim den Heijer offer some insights you might want to apply in this short clip from their appearance on The Decision-Making Studio Podcast (formerly "All Things Risk"): 🔬First, don’t beat yourself too much if you’re trying to figure out why you’re in a spot where you have to brave jostling with all the other last-minute shoppers. The study of human behaviour isn’t rocket science – it’s much harder than that. But, here are a couple of things they offer in this clip which could help: 📖Narrow your option set – take a page from Morioka Shoten – the Tokyo 🇯🇵bookshop that sells only one book at a time. 🎲🎲Roll some dice – and see how you feel about the result. Finally, a great last-minute gift would be Eva and Tim’s book, “The Housefly Effect”: https://lnkd.in/erh-nCBm. And, if you are looking for some great holiday listening, you can check out the full episode and find lots of great conversations from our podcast catalogue at The Decision-Making Studio podcast page here: https://lnkd.in/eigMukT4 _ _ _ _ _ I am the Founder of The Decision-Making Studio and I help leaders and organisations make quality decisions under uncertainty. Get in touch: https://lnkd.in/exrHTMXj What does a quality decision look like? Our “FOCUS” framework: https://lnkd.in/e2Ei_kx2

Friday is 'How did it make sense?' day. This session is a conversation with Ben Cattaneo from The Decision-Making Studio talking about the local rationality of those at higher levels within an organisation. How did it make sense to move into a Chinese business market without fully understanding the underlying context, cultural, government and corporate structures? We often talk about a 'Just Culture' at the sharp end when something goes wrong, how often do we consider applying the same approach at higher levels within an organisation? Is that a little more difficult because the 'decisions' aren't as (apparently) black and white as those who are dealing with threats and hazards on a daily basis? Is it because that would infer that those in decision-making positions higher in the organisation are fallible too? You can find Episode 8 of the podcast on the Human in the System site https://lnkd.in/eZf9sZc8, along with Spotify: https://lnkd.in/ecPUVi93 Apple podcasts: https://lnkd.in/ekP92DEe Plus any RSS feeds for podcasts. #localrationality #decisionmaking #justculture #hdims #notjustdiving

Instead of writing a list of the most interesting things I've read this year, I thought I'd share five places that consistently surface things I find interesting. You'll probably like them too. Here goes: The Decision-Making Studio Podcast (formerly "All Things Risk") by Ben Cattaneo [Podcast] Always excellent interviews with experts in different aspects of decision making. The Frame by Stripe Partners [Monthly newsletter] Monthly newsletter pairing a current cultural issue with an academic theory or framework to help make sense of it. At Work with The Ready [Podcast] Great format diving into work patterns, understanding how we got there, what does and doesn't work and how things can be done better. Culture Study by Anne Helen Petersen Excellent deep dives (and mini-dips) into subcultures I'd never think about otherwise. The series on Southern US Sororities is great. The Browser [Daily newsletter] I only get the free version and it's still such a rich source of great thinking and writing that, crucially, is often not related to my work at all.

It’s that time of year again. Soon, in addition to year-in-review articles and posts, we’ll see predictions for 2025 and various “top” lists. One of the areas that will feature prominently are predictions of what will happen in the realm of geopolitics. Here are some thoughts on that.