Aravis Capital

Hugo Rogers recently took clients and prospects on a trip to mainland China to visit FountainCap Research & Investment, to gain first-hand insight into the current state of play in the region. Investors experienced FountainCap's on-the-ground, deep-dive research process, traveling to various cities across China to see how investment opportunities are discovered. In the report below, Hugo shares his key findings from the trip and provides an outlook as we head into 2025. A big thank you to Steven L. for organizing such a fantastic experience. We’re already looking forward to the next trip in 2025! #2025InvestmentOutlook #AssetAllocation #InvestmentInsights #China

From our team to yours, we wish you a joyous holiday season and a prosperous New Year! We are grateful to all our LinkedIn followers for your engagement and look forward to providing more valuable content in 2025. We also extend our sincere thanks to our investors, prospects, and business partners for your continued support. We are excited to collaborate with you to achieve new heights in the coming year. Aravis Team #seasonsgreetings #team #araviscapital

Europe Bound: A Successful Week with FountainCap 🌍 Our Sales team just wrapped up a fantastic week across Europe with our partner, Steven L., FountainCap Research & Investment. We're excited about the positive momentum and great meetings in Barcelona, London, Madrid, Geneva, and Zurich. 𝐖𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐦. Photo: George Sugden, CFA, Steven L. #FountainCap #Partnerships #EuropeanRoadshow 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.

𝐀 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐞 This morning, a full house gathered at the Haymarket Hotel in London to delve into the intricacies of investing in Emerging Markets. 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐝𝐚 providing a macro-economic backdrop whilst Steven L. and Ravi Srivastava, CFA shed light on the latest trends, opportunities, and potential risks in China and India respectively. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐚 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐔𝐒 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬? China and India maintain slightly different national reactions. In China, the first Trump term was a painful lesson for the Chinese government. Their response in the interim has been to remodel the economy to be self-sustaining, but also prepare countermeasures for a potential second term. In India, Modi remains a close ally and friend of Trump and will continue to blow with the prevailing US policy wind. 𝐋𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐰𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Behind the strong rhetoric - the fact remains that China has no need for invasion. It holds huge economic leverage as Taiwan's largest trading partner and could severely damage the economy without firing a shot. Steven also noted that given the interdependence of global economies, any escalation would have deep economic ramifications for global, not just local, markets. 𝐏𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐌𝐁 The last Trump administration showed that the feared massive negative impact on the RMB was overhyped. By the end of his term the RMB was actually up on 2016. Noted that during that time there was volatility and there were downtrends, but ultimately China will defend its currency with its central balance sheet. 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 Allocation has been historically poor but has improved dramatically within the private sector (public markets included). The greatest risk continues to revolve around SOEs, which are less focused on external shareholders. 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫  There is always uncertainty, but this is why investors must go active - allowing active sector/company exposure. FountainCap Research & Investment continues to strategically underweight sectors with high government exposure. To find out more about the funds and future events, contact us today https://lnkd.in/grcUAyar #emergingmarkets #investmenttrends #assetallocation #event

𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐄𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐞? 🧐 This week, we turn to Nicholas Smithie, ACA, CFA International's latest piece for Redwheel, which highlights the transformation that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has undergone over the last 20 years. Like we have seen in the US with the 'Mag 7' - what was once a broad index is now overwhelmingly concentrated in the “𝐅𝐚𝐛 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐫” - in terms of countries, sectors, and stocks: 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬: China, Taiwan, Korea, and India. 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬: Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬: Alibaba, Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Tencent. Is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index now more reflective of Asia than a true “emerging markets” benchmark? Perhaps we should rethink how we define “emerging markets” in today’s global economy? This is a topic we will be discussing in much more detail next Tuesday at the 𝐀𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐬 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐮𝐦: 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 & 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲. We have a few spaces left, please reach out if you would like to attend! #ThursdayRoundUp #EmergingMarkets #Equities

𝐉𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐮𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐮𝐦 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚. 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 & 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 Date: 26th November 2024 Time: 08:30-10:30 Location: Haymarket Hotel, London Hear from experts like Gene Frieda, Steven L., and Ravi Srivastava, CFA as they discuss the latest trends and opportunities in these dynamic markets. 𝐋𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞. 𝐑𝐒𝐕𝐏 𝐛𝐲 cob 𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲, 20𝐭𝐡 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫. For more information, please see below and contact your Aravis Capital representative if you would like to attend. https://lnkd.in/ebgRr4nQ

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲'𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴) 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 📚 1. 💻 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐬𝐲𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐕𝐢𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬 ChatGPT's success caught even its creators off guard. The technology itself wasn't new—it was just packaged differently. In her latest piece, Rhea Purohit explores how psychological factors, rather than technical capabilities, often drive the adoption of revolutionary technologies. (Source: https://lnkd.in/eKTHfr39) 2. 🏢 𝐃𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩'𝐬 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐤𝐞 Political strategist Julius van de Laar explained how Donald Trump pulled off a sales masterstroke, distilling his message right down to "it's broken, I'll fix it." (Source: https://lnkd.in/eH6yABHw) 3. 🇮🇳 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚'𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 Another Citywire piece, looking at India's inclusion in the JP Morgan’s global emerging markets bond index, which is expected to attract billions in foreign investment. This historic step may enhance market liquidity and global accessibility, reshaping fixed-income strategies across Asia. (Source: https://lnkd.in/eMeSNrFS) And finally... 🎮 𝐎𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐑𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐈 A sign of things to come? The first fully AI-generated video game captivates players with surreal landscapes and real-time interactions that adapts dynamically to player decisions. (Source: https://lnkd.in/eDnGDCq7) What are you reading or watching this week? Let us know in the comments below! ___________ Follow Aravis Capital and tap the bell 🔔 on the profile to be notified when we post. #MondayRoundUp #Psychology #AI #USElection #FixedIncome #IndianEquities

𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞, 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 🌊 The debate around passive flows and their influence on stock prices has been a dominant narrative in recent years, with market participants often arguing that the rise of passive ownership distorts valuations and undermines the role of fundamentals. 🤕 However, recent research from Goldman Sachs suggests otherwise. Their cross-sectional analysis of S&P 500 companies finds that 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐬. 🧐 For stock pickers, this highlights the importance of disciplined, fundamentally driven research... and patience.⏱️ What are your thoughts on the role of fundamentals in today’s market environment? Let us know in the comments below! 💭 #ThursdayRoundUp #Equities #ActiveManagement

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗲'𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 📚 1. 🧠 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐖𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 Joe Wiggins consistently makes our reading list. His latest piece emphasizes that being "more wrong than right" is not only a frequent reality for investors but also a condition of the complex, unpredictable nature of markets. The key takeaway is the importance of humility in investing. (Source: https://lnkd.in/eguv25Si) 2.💧 𝐏𝐡𝐨𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐱 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐩𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫: 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐲? As Phoenix provides critical water resources to a new TSMC chip manufacturing facility, questions arise about the long-term sustainability of water allocation in a region already under strain. (Source: https://lnkd.in/esDUd8de) 3. 📊 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐆𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤-𝐎𝐧? 𝐌𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢-𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 At the Citywire Berlin Special conference, multi-asset experts outline an optimistic outlook for 2025, with risk-on strategies back on the table. Within equities, small caps are highlighted as a potential growth opportunity. (Source: https://lnkd.in/e2tExW3y) And finally... 📉 𝐃𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 In a world of increasing complexity, Seth Godin’s latest post offers a compelling argument against oversimplification. He explains why nuanced understanding—not “dumbing it down”—is the cornerstone of making informed decisions and fostering real innovation. "Simple it up instead" (Source: https://lnkd.in/gdPVuGpS) What are you reading or watching this week? Let us know in the comments below! ___________ Follow Aravis Capital and tap the bell 🔔 on the profile to be notified when we post. #MondayRoundUp #BehaviouralFinance #TSMC #AI #Citywire #SmallCaps

𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮'𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗱 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀？🤔 With Trump securing the presidency and conversations heating up around US-China 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 relations, it's worth taking a step back to assess the long-term trends. Without diving into political speculation, one fact stands out: Despite six years of U.S. restrictions, China's technological progress has been relentless. As Rebecca Choong Wilkins explained on Joe Weisenthal's #OddLots, China has achieved either 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 🌍 or 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 🌟 in just a decade after unveiling its ambitious plans, in nearly every targeted sector. And yet, over the six years since U.S. restrictions began, the Chinese equity market (MSCI China Index) is flat. 🤨 As nations align their industrial policies with strategic goals, how might global businesses and markets adapt to these seismic shifts, and where might the most compelling opportunities lie for investors？ Let us know your thoughts in the comments! 💬 ___________ Follow Aravis Capital and tap the bell 🔔 on the profile to be notified when we post. #ThursdayRoundUp #Trump2024 #USChina #ChinaEquities Source: https://lnkd.in/ek4vG6EF