Aperio Intelligence

The latest edition of the Financial Crime Digest is out now: https://lnkd.in/dKuM3tQy The #FCD is free to access and you can register through your LinkedIn account: https://lnkd.in/dFpKHD4U Highlights of the new edition include: - Special feature: The growing recruitment of youth in terrorism and money muling - Special feature: Women in organised crime and the case for a gender-sensitive response - UK #Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in November - US Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in November - EU Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in November - UK SFO announces bribery investigation into Thales Group in coordination with France's PNF - US DOJ and SEC charge #Adani executives and associates over $250m 'bribery scheme' and fraud - Türkiye seeks US sanctions exemption to continue #Gazprombank payments for gas supply, with Aperio Analysis by Rawan Hammoud - Country update by Charles Hollis: US-China Trade Relations; #Trump and a new age of Sanctions? - Environmental, Social and Governance update #organisedcrime #moneymule #terrorism #fraud #bribery #ESG

As part of #CHAfrica annual lecture series, last Wednesday Aperio attended a talk and Q&A by Rwanda’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Olivier Nduhungirehe. While none of Nduhungirehe’s comments, or any of the ensuing questions, rocked the boat, the talk presented a useful summary of where #Rwanda itself is positioning itself in the Great Lakes region and sub-Saharan Africa more widely, as well as in its relations with Western countries. Rwanda’s goal is to present itself as a reliable and stable partner in a region all too often defined by political and security instability. This is illustrated in Rwanda’s leading role in peacekeeping, both as a leading provider of troops to multilateral UN missions and in its bilateral security agreements with Mozambique and the CAR. The country’s commitment to peacekeeping was emphasised by Nduhungirehe as borne out of the experience of the Rwandan Genocide (which is approaching its 30th anniversary). While he did confirm Rwanda considered multilateral peacekeeping missions to still have a role to play, Nduhungirehe directly criticised the track record of UN peacekeeping missions on the African continent, singling out the UN detachment in Rwanda’s failure to prevent the genocide, as well as MONUSCO’s inability to stabilise Eastern #DRC. While he naturally did not acknowledge the full extent of Rwanda’s involvement, including its support of the M23 rebel movement, he stated that Rwanda was fully justified in taking “defensive measures” to prevent the conflict from spilling over the border into Rwanda, as well as to protect ethnic Tutsis located in Eastern DRC. Of particular interest was Nduhungirehe’s language when referring to the FDLR, a Hutu armed group which fled Rwanda during and after the genocide and which Rwanda accuses the DRC of sheltering. Nduhungirehe stated that Rwanda could never be safe until the FDLR had been “permanently neutralised.” He also accused the DRC of having an “obsession with regime change” in seeking to overthrow the government of Paul Kagame. Nduhungirehe also spoke of Rwanda’s concern at the use by the DRC of Romanian and French mercenaries. Over the weekend Horatiu Potra was among a group arrested by Romanian police in an apparent plot to disrupt the country's Presidential Elections. How, or even whether this arrest has an effect on RALF, the mercenary group headed by Potra, and its deployment in DRC is to be seen. One amusing Q&A question likened the tenure of Arsenal’s Arsene Wenger with that of Kagame, with the question whether it was time for Kagame to step away. Nduhungirehe answered that, as long as a manager was performing, there was no need to consider a replacement, and that indeed he wished Wenger was still holding the reins at Arsenal. The stability of Kagame's government - its repression of internal political dissent notwithstanding - was in this way presented by Nduhungirehe as an asset to regional and international economic, migration, or security partners.

The BBC World Service’s documentary and ensuing coverage, alleging that that Uyghur forced labour has been used to harvest tomatoes found in puree sold in European supermarkets, may come as little surprise. The agricultural sector has significant exposure to #XUAR (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where Uyghur workers have been forced into work and detention camps). Agricultural companies based in the region featured heavily among the 29 additional entities added on 24 November 2024 by the US to its Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act Entity List, including one company named Hebei Tomato Industry Co. Western scrutiny of alleged XUAR forced labour exposure for the agricultural sector follows similar scrutiny of photovoltaic energy, pharmaceutical and mining sectors. It is worth emphasising the extent to which this exposure is very much by design, at least from a Chinese government perspective: the CCP is able to use financial incentives, as well as political pressure, to encourage Chinese companies to establish operations in XUAR and benefit from alleged forced labour. The attractiveness of these products means that a total “de-risking” by Western companies in an increasingly diverse array of sectors becomes unrealistic. Supply chain due diligence and entity monitoring – where conducted – is often used to benchmark XUAR-exposed companies in an attempt to mitigate (and show regulators their attempts to do so) forced labour-related risks, whilst some companies have ruled out suppliers with XUAR exposure altogether. For many large EU-based companies, an influx of legislation will require strict compliance. However, given the recently-announced delay in the enforcement of EU deforestation supply chain regulation due to logistical and political challenges, agricultural companies will have more time to re-think their supplier base and supply chain vetting processes.   As we had presented at the IES Forum in Strasbourg last month, where Western scrutiny has focussed on the allegations of forced labour and ethnic violence against the Uyghur population, Chinese firms’ participation in XUAR initiatives will be published in government data, as this inclusion is often required to qualify for incentives. These initiatives are also regularly reported on in neutral or even positive terms by Chinese media, which highlights their economic benefits as well as the supposed societal development they have brought to #Xinjiang. A May 2023 report by Sheffield Hallam University’s Forced Labour Lab, whose work has been crucial in identifying XUAR alleged forced labour exposure, highlights a wide variety of products for which there are allegations of XUAR exposure, from food products to furniture, automotive parts and home appliances. Any of these products could be the subject of increased public, sanctions or regulatory scrutiny in the future, and their findings could be viewed as an indication of the sectors which could come under the scrutiny of regulators.

The strategic dilemma facing Iran following the collapse of their proxy based forward defence strategy in the Middle East is just one of the consequences of this tumultuous year in the region. Some of my thoughts are in the excellent article by David Hodari, News Editor at NBC News. The ceasefire in Lebanon is a complex agreement, but nevertheless highly welcome. Gaza remains more intractable.

Ce fut un plaisir pour l’équipe d’Aperio Intelligence de répondre présent au Forum #IES à Strasbourg la semaine dernière. Bien que dotée d’une perspective quoique différente de l’intelligence économique – notamment par l’alignement en France du secteur privé avec les institutions d’Etat et académiques – les défis auxquels font face les acteurs de l’IE sont semblables des deux côtés de la Manche (et d’ailleurs de l’Atlantique). Les tendances en matière de développement d’outils, en particulier les outils utilisant l’intelligence artificielle, sont aussi similaires. L’IA a dominé pendant la conférence, non seulement dans les cas d’utilisation portant sur les veilles économique, stratégique, et technologique, mais aussi dans le traitement de bases de données internes, deux applications qu’explore également Aperio. Pour ce qui est de notre présentation, Didier et moi avons vivement apprécié de pouvoir présenter un retour d’expérience sur nos recherches #OSINT et #HUMINT dans le domaine de la lutte contre la main d’œuvre forcée en Xinjiang, y compris pour le compte de grands groupes industriels et énergétiques français. Les questions engagées du public et de nos collaborateurs de session démontrent l’importance et l’utilité des échanges d’expérience et d’expertise entre acteurs du secteur.

Last week, Aperio's Radu Ciurba attended GOVNET Romania's 2024 ESG Non-Financial Sustainability Reporting Conference in Bucharest. The event, which brought together sustainability officers, #compliance professionals, business leaders and investors, focused on the implementation of the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (#CSRD). Specifically, speakers addressed, among others, the double materiality assessment, the impact of the supply chain on #ESG performance, and the reporting requirements' effect on businesses.

As the #Romanian presidential and parliamentary elections are fast approaching, Aperio's Pompiliu Tamas weighs in on recent poll results. "The outcome of the second round of [the presidential] #elections is hard to predict but according to most polls, [Marcel] Ciolacu is the clear favourite only against [George] Simion, as a majority of Romanians remain unwilling to see a far-right politician as the head of state."

Aperio's Pierre le Jeune d'Allegeershecque and Didier Rafidiarimanda will speak on 21 November at Association Aéronautique et Astronautique de France (3AF)'s European Economic and Strategic Intelligence Forum. Their contributions will address the role of #OSINT and #HUMINT in fighting human rights violations, and will be part of a session on competitiveness and corporate social responsibility (#CSR). For more information check out 3AF's announcement: https://lnkd.in/d6qaUWgD

The latest edition of the Financial Crime Digest is out now: https://lnkd.in/dcji-xP2 The #FCD is free to access and you can register through your LinkedIn account: https://lnkd.in/dFpKHD4U Highlights of the new edition include: - Special feature: Financial sector in West Africa challenged by rising #cyber threats. For this article, FCD's Bianca-Ioana Hanganu spoke with cyber threat intelligence specialist Olajumoke Elizabeth Oloyede and cybersecurity professional Samaila Atsen Bako - #TDBank fined in historic US enforcement action for massive #AML failings - First #FATF Week under new Mexican Presidency concludes - French judges give green light to #terrorismfinancing trial against #Lafarge - UK publishes draft #crypto-asset reporting regulations under #OECD framework - UK #Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in October - US Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in October - EU Sanctions spotlight: Developments and measures adopted in October - Aperio analysis: #PavelDurov’s fall from French favour - Environmental, Social and Governance (#ESG) update

We are looking for an associate to join our Russia, Central Asia and Caucasus team. If you have experience of managing teams and clients in our industry (or a relevant one) and looking for your next challenge, please see our careers page for further details https://lnkd.in/eWZxT6dq #russia #centralasia #caucasus #research #duediligence #businessintelligence #analysis #jobs #risk #integrity #management