Allianz Trade

🗨️ “Suddenly I was part of something that made me feel like I was connecting with the world – and building upon it in a tangible way!” June Yang has always been driven to expand her skills and knowledge. That ambition led her to join Allianz Trade in Hong Kong – while completing multiple business degrees. Here, she speaks on how entering the surety field as an Underwriting and Operations Analyst has opened up new paths to growth. From gaining valuable insight from her supportive team to participating in diverse projects worldwide, June has lived many lives in her seven years at Allianz Trade in Asia Pacific. Learn more about her journey here: https://ow.ly/8GCk50Utcl5 #AllianzTradeTeam #Surety #CareerDevelopment

🎁 This holiday season, give yourself the gift of financial literacy! Our economists are on hand to answer your biggest questions when it comes to wealth. First up, our Chief Economist Ludovic Subran explains how much more there is to saving, and how your saving behavior can shape the world.

The wicked witch of the west is (almost) dead! We're talking about inflation, of course. But will 2025 be the year we can finally stop paying attention to the men and women behind the curtain? After a super electoral year, 2025 will all be about effective policy making. As markets reached a new high this year, one question is on everyone’s mind: will risky assets continue to be “popular” (you’re gonna be popular)? In keeping with our tradition, we couldn't resist taking some 🎵 musical inspiration 🎵 for our last economic outlook of the year. So turn up the Wicked soundtrack and take a look at some of the key takeaways below! 1. Global economic growth: Not quite "dancing through life". Global real GDP growth is expected to remain moderate but steady at +2.8% in 2025-26. We expect developed economies to experience a slight slowdown, with growth tapering from +1.8% in 2025 to +1.7% in 2026. In contrast, emerging economies are likely to sustain robust growth at +4.1% across both years. 2. Is “Something bad” on the way? After the super electoral year, “the Wizards (and not us)” of policy design will be very influential for both the economy and capital markets. Political changes, such as the US elections, could reshape economic landscapes and introduce uncertainties. Geopolitical risks, including tensions between major powers, continue to be a significant concern for global stability. 3. “No one mourns the wicked”: Inflation should finally retreat to 2% in 2025, allowing for monetary policy easing to continue until end-2025. “Thank goodness” central bank policy will shift from taming inflation to supporting growth (but do not hold your breath). However, upside risks remain from potential tariff implementation in the US and unfolding retaliation measures. 4. “What is this feeling?”: Uncertainty continues for companies. While policy shifts and geopolitical risks present challenges, sectors like AI and technology are expected to see growth. Investment in infrastructure and sustainable sectors is also projected to increase. Business insolvencies are expected to increase by +2% in 2025 and to stabilize at high levels in 2026. Read the full report here: https://ow.ly/FXVB50Uuk16

A Year in Review with Allianz Trade Experts 📚 Looking to accelerate innovation? Leverage the power of data and explore the potential of generative AI! At Allianz Trade, we’re leading data innovation in trade finance to enhance our solutions and customer service. In his article, Dr. Tom Alby, Head of Marketing and Chief Digital Transformation Officer at Allianz Trade in Deutschland, outlines key strategies for businesses to fully leverage their data: https://ow.ly/tqvf50Usq3K Generative AI also holds a truly transformative potential for business applications and trade. By some estimates, it could add up to $4.4 trillion to the global economy each year. Here, Fabien Vinas, our Global Head of Data Analytics & AI, explains what gen AI is, how it works, and the potential risks to consider when using it: https://ow.ly/vTaK50Usq3I He also explores how generative AI can be applied to trade credit insurance to enhance the work of our experts, while also discussing its limitations: https://ow.ly/OVag50Usq3J At Allianz Trade, we are committed to leveraging gen AI not only to foster innovation in trade credit insurance but also to build a more inclusive future. Our partnership with Inclusive Brains is set to accelerate the development of AI-powered assistive solutions. Olivier Oullier, the CEO & co-founder, explains his vision, how the technology works, and the multiple possibilities it unlocks: https://ow.ly/MjBG50Usq3L You can read all our experts’ articles here: https://ow.ly/XTbZ50Usq3H And stay tuned in 2025 for our upcoming articles about Gen AI!

We are thrilled to announce that, for the fourth consecutive year, we have been recognized as the Market #LoyaltyLeader by our valued customers and brokers worldwide, as reflected in our latest annual customers and brokers survey 🙌 This achievement is a testament to the continued trust and confidence our clients and partners place in us. A big thank you to our customers and brokers for their continued support and loyalty. You help us to shape a better tomorrow! 🌟 A heartfelt thank you also to our dedicated team, whose hard work and passion make achievements like this possible. 👉 Find out about the challenges our customers face and how we help them: https://ow.ly/LuKr50Uqz3j #CustomerExperience #YourVoiceMatters #CX

🎙️ Time for a new episode of Tomorrow! Weight-loss drugs have become a golden formula for pharma growth. In this episode we speak to Sector Advisor Maria Latorre and Senior Economist Michaela Grimm about how GLP-1 treatments like Ozempic and Wegovy are reshaping the industry, and the risks that lie ahead. Tune in here 🎧👉 https://ow.ly/Kh4I50UrIW0 #Podcast #Economics

📈 ️Bankruptcies have soared past pre-pandemic levels and won’t plateau until next year – which may be causing an unforeseen risk for multinationals. How can you protect against the unexpected with Excess of Loss? From unanticipated bankruptcies to sector struggles, our Excess of Loss solution can shield your business against these trends: https://ow.ly/SX3950UoiER #ExcessofLoss #XoL #AllianzTradeforMultinationals

What’s the outlook for the global #TransportEquipment 🚊 sector? Faster production has increased deliveries and reduced backlogs in the transport equipment sector. But companies will have to navigate stricter environmental regulations, volatile commodity prices and a difficult labor market, among other challenges. Read the full sector risk report here 👉 https://ow.ly/Zqek50TQt6j

A Year in Review with Allianz Trade Experts 📚 At Allianz Trade we are deeply committed to our role in the Net Zero transition, and we are uniquely positioned to help companies and the overall economy grow in a more sustainable way. Here are some of the ways in which we work towards these goals: This year we were proud to launch Surety Green2Green, a new solution aimed at accelerating the sustainable transition of the global economy. You can find out more about it here, with insights from Soenke Schottmayer and Piril Kadibesegil Yasar: https://ow.ly/OVzW50UnyXb This builds on our sustainable solutions offer, which all started with Specialty Credit Green2Green. Pierre LAMOURELLE and Julia Elena Taubenberger explain how it works and its impact supporting the financing of low-carbon technologies and infrastructure projects around the world: https://ow.ly/g7fQ50UnyXa Earlier this year after we signed a policy with the International Finance Corporation, Pierre sat down to tell us about the “impact underwriting” strategy in Specialty Credit, connecting good business sense to social and environmental progress: https://ow.ly/xQk950UnyX7 And we ended 2024 with a fifth year of partnership with Save the Children International, issuing a political risk insurance policy to protect their funds in over a dozen countries. Dalmar Abdirisak Nur breaks down different types of political risk coverage, and what this partnership means to us: https://ow.ly/WSsX50UnyX9 You can read all our experts’ articles here: https://ow.ly/IBo050UnyX8

🌎 This week our economists look at three critical issues: 1. Companies on a trade war footing. Despite a brief boost as exporters rush to get in orders before higher tariffs kick in, global trade growth is likely to slow in 2025-2026. We have cut our forecasts for volume growth to +2.8% for 2025 (-0.2pp from our previous forecast) and +2.3% in 2026 (-0.5pp). Ultimately, factors such as FX adjustments and upcoming free-trade agreements may bring a little relief to global trade but they are unlikely to neuter the impact of the renewed trade war. 2. The Fed's wishful Xmas cut. Though a close call, we think the Fed will deliver its third consecutive rate cut next week, even if disinflation has stalled and the unemployment rate is picking up, albeit driven by strong labor force growth rather than weakening job growth. Looking ahead, tight immigration policy and tariff hikes could increase inflationary pressures in 2025. We thus expect the Fed to pause rate cuts at the January meeting, before delivering a final 25bps cut for the year in March, pushing the Fed funds rate to the 4-4.25% range. 3. 2024 going on the books as a record year for insolvencies. Insolvencies of companies with over EUR50mn in turnover hit a new record high in Q3 2024 at 127 cases, +17 compared to Q2 2024 and +42 compared to the pre-pandemic average of 82 over 2017-2019. Additionally, the combined turnover of insolvent major companies has increased by +48% y/y to EUR40bn. Lingering economic uncertainty, structural changes in sectors and the reshaping of supply chains and global trade could certainly push the final count of major insolvencies to a new record in 2024, raising the risk of a domino effect on suppliers and subcontractors. Read the full report here: https://ow.ly/FuTu50UpS9o #Economics #Economy