Glassnode

#Bitcoin spending is far from random - it follows a predictable power-law decay. Our latest research uncovers how the age of coins directly influences their likelihood of being spent. For every tenfold increase in age, the probability of spending drops by a factor of 10. This trend holds consistently, revealing tenacious behavioral patterns that help investors understand and anticipate market dynamics with greater confidence. This new mathematical framework allows analysts to segment the market into behavior-driven cohorts. While not a substitute for complex models, it provides a quick, reliable snapshot for traders and analysts tracking near-term market flows, empowering sharper decision-making. Dive deeper into the findings and see how this model could shape your approach to #BTC trading or analysis - read the full research report here: https://glassno.de/3ZR0ugX

Get an x-ray view of profitability and profit-taking activity across key assets with the Profitability Map. This tool makes it easy to track assets with increasing 🔴 or declining 🟢 profitability, helping you spot momentum shifts before price movements become apparent. For example, 📈 DEXE remains highly profitable (1.49), with slowing profit-taking momentum (0.51) and a slightly heating trend. The data shows a spike in realized profits for DEXE holders between Dec 2-9. However, profit-taking has since slowed, with only modest activity in recent days. This trend suggests investors may be holding onto potential value. Meanwhile, 📉 YFII is strongly cooling, with both profitability and realized profits declining sharply, reflecting reduced opportunities for holders to cash out amid slowing market momentum. Typically a Professional plan Dashboard, it is now accessible to Advanced plan users until March 31, 2025. Explore it here: https://glassno.de/map

The proportion of #Bitcoin wealth held within recently moved supply has started to increase meaningfully in recent months. This occurs as coins held by Long-Term Holders are distributed to new investors, which in turn highlights a surge in new demand-side activity. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇 glassno.de/41GJwn8

#Bitcoin continues trading above the psychologically important $100k price level, supported by a consistent inflow of capital. Long-Term Holders are capitalizing on this liquidity, taking the opportunity to distribute supply at scale, setting a new ATH in profit realized of $2.1B. Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below👇 https://glassno.de/41GJwn8

#Solana vs Ethereum: Probing into the Demand Side We can gauge demand-side momentum by tracking capital rotation via new investor activity, also known as Hot Realized Cap. The Hot Realized Cap measures the capital held by accounts active in the last 7 days. 1/ Solana Hot Realized Cap For Solana, the positive market momentum coincided with a surge in its Hot Realized Cap starting in early October 2023. 📊: https://glassno.de/3BwmMvk 2/ Ethereum Hot Realized Cap Unlike Solana, Ethereum's Hot Realized Cap did not see a significant spike off the 2022-2023 bear market floor. This demonstrates how demand for Solana outpaced Ethereum for most of 2024. 📊: https://glassno.de/3VHfhbE 3/ Demand Shift: SOL vs ETH However, the recent period of ETH outperforming SOL has coincided with a surge in ETH's Hot Realized Cap starting in early November 2024. New demand is clearly returning to ETH. 📊: https://glassno.de/49Lm8qy

Looking at price performance, SOL outpaced both ETH and BTC for most of Q4 2024. However, since early December, ETH has taken the lead, outperforming the other two assets. 30-day performance: ETH: +26.96% BTC: +17.49% SOL: +1.61% A clear shift in momentum. 📊 https://glassno.de/4ggZUiw Analyzing the weekly Realized Cap—a proxy for capital flow—SOL expanded faster than BTC and ETH until early December (over +5%). Since then, BTC has taken the lead, with ETH outpacing SOL: BTC: +1.89% SOL: +1.11% ETH: +1.03% Capital flows and price trends have shifted. The tides have turned.  📊: https://glassno.de/4fkLyMz #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana

$131 trillion. That’s the total transfer volume Bitcoin has processed since its inception - a powerful testament to its evolution from a niche experiment to a global financial force. This statistic, though, exemplifies just one of many milestones Bitcoin has tagged on its monumental journey to crossing $100K. This week's edition of Glassnode's flagship Week On-Chain newsletter dives into the #onchain data-driven story behind this achievement. Highlights include: - 1.12 billion transactions processed since the Genesis Block. - $71.49 billion in miner revenue, with $67.31 billion from block subsidies and $4.18 billion in transaction fees. - $2 trillion market cap briefly flipping the total valuation of silver. Dive into the full analysis and discover more fascinating stats about #Bitcoin’s journey to $100K in this week’s Week On-Chain: glassno.de/3ZOJcRF

Bitcoin’s current cycle shows the lowest volatility in its history, with an average drawdown of just -7.68% and a maximum drawdown of -26.25%. This is significantly less volatile than previous cycles: - 2011-2013: Avg. -22.40%, Max. -71.15% - 2015-2017: Avg. -11.49%, Max. -36.01% - 2018-2021: Avg. -20.41%, Max. -62.62% The ROI for the 2022+ cycle (5.98x) is higher than the 2015-2018 cycle at this point (5.90x) but below the 2018-2022 cycle (10.47x). It's also 26.94% lower than the average of the last two cycles (8.18x) - from cycle low up until this point. As Bitcoin evolves, its ability to balance growth and reduced volatility continues to solidify its role in a maturing, more institutionalized market. #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain

#Bitcoin’s market cycles follow a distinctive pattern: long-term holders dominate during bear markets, gradually distributing to short-term holders as prices rise. But spot ETFs have added a new layer of complexity. How? Many early #BTC ETF buyers who began accumulating early in the year now also fall into the long-term holder category (holding >155 days). This introduces more nuance to what “long-term holder distribution” may mean, making it harder to assess if we are transitioning from the mid to late stages of the bull market. Realized Cap #HODL Waves provide the granularity needed to differentiate between less concerning and more concerning distribution. For instance, the 6-12 month cohort, which swelled to 25% of Bitcoin’s supply by August due to ETF-driven demand, has since declined to 16%, reflecting profit-taking at key price levels. This behaviour is less alarming, as it is consistent with early ETF investors locking in their gains. However, the thinning of the 1-2 and 2-3 year cohorts - including holders who accumulated during the 2022 bear market lows - is more concerning, signaling that experienced investors are taking profits and suggesting a transition to the later stages of the cycle. For comparison, at the 2021 bull market peak, short-term holders controlled ~80% of Bitcoin’s supply, while long-term holders fell below 20%. Today, long-term holders are at ~50% and diminishing, but older cohorts (3-5 years) still show little distribution at the current prices. This indicates we are likely mid-to-late in the cycle, potentially with some runway left if the dynamics from the previous cycles were to play out similarly.

The Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric provides a detailed view of where #Bitcoin supply has clustered at key price levels. Recent data shows $99,559 as the largest accumulation zone below $100K (a total of 125K #BTC), while $96K-$98K, with 120K BTC accumulated, shapes up as a potential support level in the short term. CBD also highlights $101,669 (44K BTC) as a level to watch. While $99,559 indicates stronger accumulation, it may act more as an area of interest than immediate resistance, depending on how market momentum develops. Typically exclusive to Professional plan users, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap is now available to Advanced plan users until the end of 2024. Learn more and explore it here: https://glassno.de/4ikd3ZA