Research Centre for Security and Geopolitical Studies

On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, an Embraer 190 passenger jet, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 individuals on board. The crash has drawn significant geopolitical attention due to allegations of Russian involvement. Early indications and investigations suggest that the plane may have been struck by a Russian air defense missile during its approach to Grozny, Chechnya. The incident has strained relations between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan while raising broader concerns about aviation safety in conflict zones. #Azerbaijan #Russia #Kazakhstan #AZAL #planecrash #mh17 https://lnkd.in/eqDBRCd6

François Bayrou’s appointment as France’s Prime Minister marks the latest chapter in a period of unprecedented political turbulence. Tasked with stabilizing a fragmented National Assembly, addressing urgent crises like the aftermath of Cyclone Chido in Mayotte, and navigating a deeply divided political landscape, Bayrou faces formidable challenges. As he works to form a government and articulate his vision, his leadership style and ability to foster consensus will be tested in ways that could define both his tenure and France’s political future. #france #macron #bayrou

This report examines Georgia's escalating political crisis following the controversial election of Mikheil Kavelashvili as president through an indirect electoral college system dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. It explores the root causes, including allegations of electoral fraud, democratic backsliding, and the postponement of EU accession talks, which have fueled nationwide protests. The report highlights strong international condemnation, including sanctions and diplomatic pressure from Western allies, and analyzes the potential outcomes, ranging from continued authoritarian consolidation to possible concessions under sustained public and international pressure. Georgia's future remains uncertain, with its democratic and European aspirations at stake. #georgia #georgiaprotests #georgiandream #tbilisiprotests #southcaucasus #eu

Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability over four decades, enabling Tehran to expand its influence despite significant constraints. However, its over-reliance on proxies, coupled with economic and geopolitical pressures, has made the strategy increasingly unsustainable. While Iran has achieved deterrence and regional influence, it has also entrenched itself in protracted conflicts that drain resources and alienate local populations. Its proxies’ recent losses underscore the limitations of relying on non-state actors to achieve strategic goals. #iran #hezbollah #hamas #houthis #syria #israel #russia #usa

The fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, marked the end of over five decades of Assad family rule in Syria, a period defined by authoritarianism, repression, and conflict. Triggered by a lightning offensive by Islamist-led rebels, this event reshapes Syria's political and social landscape, creating challenges and opportunities for the war-torn nation and its regional and international stakeholders. https://lnkd.in/exzsDqF3 #assad #syria #middleast #russia #iran #turkey

The Collapse of Assad’s Hold? Syria at a Critical Juncture Amid Renewed Conflict Syria is witnessing its most significant escalation in years, with opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) capturing key territories, including Aleppo, Hama, and parts of Homs, while advancing toward Damascus. This renewed conflict has exposed the Assad regime’s vulnerabilities, as government forces retreat to fortify defenses around the capital. President Bashar al-Assad remains in Damascus, countering rumors of his departure, while relying on Iran and Russia for military and diplomatic support. Despite intensified airstrikes and redeployment efforts, his regime struggles to halt opposition advances. Meanwhile, Turkey has expressed support for rebel gains, emphasizing the need for a politically stable Syria while pursuing its security interests in northern regions. The Astana Format talks in Doha—bringing together Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the UN—have renewed calls for political dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition groups. However, deep mistrust, fragmented opposition factions, and competing regional interests complicate prospects for a resolution. The humanitarian impact is severe, with tens of thousands displaced and concerns about extremist rule or prolonged conflict. The coming weeks will be pivotal, with potential scenarios ranging from regime collapse to protracted fighting or mediation-led de-escalation. Syria’s conflict is at a crossroads. The decisions made now by internal actors and external powers will determine whether the nation sees a path to stability or succumbs to deeper chaos. For Assad, the question remains whether his hold on power can withstand this latest crisis. #syria #assad #iran #russia #turkey #middleeast #geopolitics

This article explores the resurgence of violence in Syria's civil war, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leading a major offensive in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. It examines the strategic gains of the rebels, the Syrian army's counteroffensive with Russian and Iranian support, and the geopolitical implications involving Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The article highlights the humanitarian toll and the complex interplay of regional and international actors shaping Syria's conflict, emphasizing the fragile stability and uncertainty of the country's future. #syria #aleppo #hts #turkey #russia #iran

In foreign policy, Trump’s focus on a "peace through strength" strategy means potential high-stakes diplomacy and a pragmatic, sometimes combative stance toward global issues. Trump has hinted at a possible deal with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, though it may involve concessions that will challenge European security interests. His approach toward China is similarly confrontational, with plans to impose steep tariffs to counter Beijing’s economic influence. This could disrupt global trade and deepen divisions within the U.S.-European alliance. #Trump #USPresidentialElection #Harris

Israel's Covert War with Hezbollah Escalates Amid Pager Explosions In a significant escalation of its covert war against Hezbollah, Israel is widely believed to have orchestrated a series of devastating explosions targeting the communications devices of the Shia militia across Lebanon and Syria. The blasts, which occurred on September 17 and 18, killed at least 32 people and injured thousands, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. The attack marks a new phase in the ongoing conflict, as both Israel and Hezbollah grapple with the aftermath of the unprecedented assault. https://lnkd.in/ebx3U_tv #israel #lebanon #hezbollah #middleeast

The proposed Zangezur Corridor, a transport route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, has emerged as a major geopolitical issue in the South Caucasus, drawing intense reactions from key regional players, particularly Russia and Iran. Iranian officials have expressed concerns over Russia's stance, perceiving it as a betrayal of their longstanding alliance. Iran’s opposition has prompted questions about a possible shift in its regional policy, potentially moving closer to the West while distancing itself from Moscow. Despite this tension, the corridor presents opportunities for cooperation, potentially enhancing regional connectivity and trade. The future of the Zangezur Corridor remains uncertain, with its outcome poised to significantly impact the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus. #Russia #Iran #Turkey #Azerbaijan #Armenia #ZangezurCorridor #Nakhchivan #Geopolitics