Corporate Alliance Group

📈Market update 19/12/2024 • Earlier yesterday, the Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate reduction, aligning with widespread market expectations. Following the announcement, Wall Street experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq falling 1.4%, the S&P 500 index decreasing by 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 8 basis points to 4.48%, while crude oil prices increased by 0.5% to $70.30 per barrel. Significant demand for the U.S. dollar drove the AUD/USD exchange rate down to a low of 0.62345, the EUR/USD to 1.0355, and the GBP/USD to 1.2582. • Asian equity markets once again closed with mixed results. The Nikkei index declined by 0.7%, while the Hang Seng index appreciated by 0.8%. Australia's ASX 200 index remained unchanged. • The United Kingdom's November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly met expectations. The headline CPI registered a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, in line with estimates, while the core CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year (against an estimate of 3.6%). The British pound faced downward pressure, declining from a high of 1.2730 to a low of 1.26805 against the U.S. dollar. The Eurozone's final November CPI was also released, showing a 2.2% year-on-year increase (compared to an estimate of 2.3%). The EUR/USD exchange rate exhibited minimal reaction, trading near its previous closing level of 1.0495. To read more: https://lnkd.in/em4WQ8Nx #FederalReserve #RateCut #WallStreet #ForexMarket #USDollar #AsianMarkets #EuropeanCPI #UKInflation #USHousingData #GlobalEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #MarketVolatility #GlobalStockMarkets #CurrencyExchange

📈Market update 18/12/2024 ■ The Australian dollar experienced further modest depreciation overnight, reaching a new annual low of 0.6332 against the US dollar. The AUD/USD pair has declined by 5 cents this quarter. Attention is focused on tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for 6 am Sydney time, where a 25 basis point rate reduction is anticipated. The impact on the US dollar will largely depend on post-meeting communications, particularly Chair Powell’s press conference. ■ The US dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies overnight. November’s US retail sales data revealed robust growth, primarily driven by a 2.6% month-on-month increase in automotive purchases. However, industrial production contracted for the seventh time this year, with capacity utilization continuing its multi-year downward trend. ■ The AUD/GBP exchange rate fell below 0.5000 as UK two-year yields increased significantly. UK labor market data exceeded expectations, showing substantial employment growth, sustained low unemployment, and accelerated earnings growth. Market expectations indicate no rate reduction from the Bank of England (BoE) tomorrow, with only 50 basis points of cuts projected for 2025. Persistently high core CPI and services CPI are likely to support a more cautious rate reduction cycle by the BoE, potentially maintaining downward pressure on the AUD/GBP pair. To read more:https://lnkd.in/eX-3nnVq #AUDUSD #ForexMarkets #USDollar #FOMCMeeting #RateCut #PowellSpeech #USRetailSales #IndustrialProduction #AUDGBP #UKLabourMarket #BoE #InterestRates #CoreCPI #AUDCNH #ChinaFiscalPolicy #BudgetDeficit #EconomicGrowth #GlobalMarkets #CurrencyTrading #MarketUpdate #ForexNews #EconomicOutlook #FinancialMarkets #InvestingInsights #TradingAnalysis

📈Market update 17/12/2024 • Wall Street started the week strong, with the Nasdaq up 1.3%, S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Dow Jones unchanged in the final hours of the North American session. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields remained stable, while crude oil fell 0.9% to $70.60 per barrel. Before the Asian market opened, AUD/USD traded in a range of 0.63455/0.6382, eventually settling around 0.6365/70. • Asian stocks began the week on a weak note, with the Hang Seng down 0.9%, CSI 300 down 0.5%, and the Nikkei flat. Locally, the Australian Securities Exchange fell 0.6%, dragged down by the materials sector which closed 2% lower. As London opened, AUD/USD was near 0.6370 in a relatively quiet Asian trading session. • China’s November retail sales grew 3% year-on-year, below the expected 5%, while industrial production grew 5.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. USD/CNH edged higher during the session, reaching a high of 7.2950. • A series of PMI data from the Eurozone showed mixed results. France’s December preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 41.9 (expected 43.0) and services at 46.0 (expected 46.7). Germany’s PMI showed services rising to 51.0 (expected 49.3) and manufacturing at 43.1 (expected 42.5). ECB President Lagarde also spoke, indicating further rate cuts and a clear direction. EUR/USD showed little reaction to these comments, slightly up for the day at 1.0520. To read more: https://lnkd.in/eNwBGKTy #WallStreet #Nasdaq #SP500 #DowJones #TreasuryYields #CrudeOil #AUDUSD #AsianMarkets #HangSeng #CSI300 #Nikkei #ASX #ChinaRetailSales #IndustrialProduction #USDCNH #EurozonePMI #ECB #EURUSD #EuropeanMarkets #UKPMI #GBPUSD #Forex #GlobalMarkets #MarketUpdate #EconomicData #TradingInsights #Investing

📈Market update 16/12/2024 • Wall Street experienced a volatile day, with the three major indices ultimately closing nearly flat. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.40%, while crude oil increased by 1.6% to $71.20 per barrel. AUD/USD traded in a narrow range of 0.6352-0.63835, finally closing at 0.6360. • Asian stock markets closed lower for the week, with the Nikkei down 0.9%, the Hang Seng down 2.1%, and Australia's ASX 200 down 0.4%. The local index marked its worst weekly performance since August. • UK GDP for October came in at -0.1% (expected +0.1%), contracting for the second consecutive month. October industrial production also fell short of expectations, with a month-on-month figure of -0.6% (expected +0.3%), and manufacturing production at -0.6% month-on-month (expected +0.2%). The pound came under pressure, with GBP/USD dropping about 40 pips to a low of 1.2619. To read more: https://lnkd.in/edSYrnet #WallStreetVolatility #MarketFluctuation #TreasuryYields #ForexTrading #AUDUSD #AsianMarkets #NikkeiIndex #ASX200 #UKGDP #IndustrialProduction #GlobalMarkets #FinancialNews

📈Market update 13/12/2024 – AUD/USD dropped to 0.6360, reversing yesterday’s gains driven by a hawkish RBA repricing. USD strength overshadowed optimistic signals from Chinese officials about countercyclical policy. Market pricing for a 25bp RBA rate cut in February is now a 50-50 chance after a solid labour force survey, though our team still anticipates easing to start in February. – USD climbed toward 107pts as US Treasury yields rose 3-6bp. November PPI exceeded expectations (+0.4%/mth vs. 0.2% forecast), though key PCE deflator categories were favorable. Initial jobless claims slightly surpassed estimates (242k vs. 220k), and the odds of a 25bp FOMC cut next week remain high at 95%. – AUD/EUR softened to 0.6070 after the ECB’s 25bp rate cut to 3.0%. The ECB signaled further cuts by removing its “sufficiently restrictive” language, with a 50bp cut fully priced for January. Growth forecasts were slightly downgraded, and inflation is expected to reach 2% by 2025. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dwVBZp_j #AUDUSD #USDEconomy #RBA #FOMC #ECB #InterestRates #ForexMarket #CurrencyTrading #GlobalEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #AUDJPY #AUDCNH #ChinaEconomy #BoJ #InflationOutlook #MarketUpdates

📈Market update 12/12/2024 – AUD/USD hit a year-to-date low of 0.6337 overnight before recovering slightly to just under 0.6370, pressured by reports that China may let CNH weaken next year to counter Trump’s proposed tariffs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted uncertainty about these tariffs’ impact on Australia but reassured the RBA is ready to act if needed. Today’s November labour force report (11:30 am Sydney time) is key. A 35k job gain and a rise in unemployment to 4.2% are expected, reinforcing a likely February RBA rate cut. Market pricing for a 25bp cut is now 69%, up from 30% last week. – USD briefly eased below 106.4 after CPI matched expectations with a 0.3%/month rise but regained ground. FOMC rate cut odds next week rose to 95%. November PPI and jobless claims later today may refine inflation expectations. – AUD/EUR rose above 0.6070 ahead of the ECB’s expected 25bp rate cut today. Post-meeting communication may highlight Eurozone risks, but AUD/EUR could rise modestly as easing is already priced in. – AUD/CAD slipped 0.5% after the BoC cut rates by 50bp to 3.25%. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled a more gradual approach going forward. Lower immigration targets are expected to weaken GDP growth but have limited inflation impact. Read more: https://lnkd.in/g2jGcZBM

📈Market update 11/12/2024 – AUD/USD hovers near 0.6380, just above the year-to-date low of 0.6350, after the RBA expressed growing confidence in inflation moving toward its target. Markets now see a 60% chance of a 25bp rate cut in mid-February, up from under 50% before yesterday’s meeting. Tomorrow’s labour force report could further influence expectations, particularly if unemployment rises. Deputy Governor Hauser speaks tonight, with focus on potential easing signals. US CPI later today could also lift AUD/USD if the core reading is 0.3%/month or less. – USD edged higher in a quiet session, with tomorrow’s US CPI being pivotal. A 0.3% core increase may nudge USD closer to 105.1 (50% Fibonacci), while 0.4% or more could push it toward its 2024 high of 108.1 as Fed rate cut odds shrink. – AUD/CAD is heavy at 0.90 post-RBA. Tomorrow’s BoC decision, where markets expect a 50bp cut, may boost AUD/CAD slightly. A smaller 25bp cut could break support at 0.8975. Population decline in 2025-2026, referenced in the BoC’s outlook, could weigh on GDP. To read more: https://lnkd.in/euw9PSKb #AUDUSD #ForexMarket #RBA #USDCPI #InterestRates #ForexTrading #CurrencyExchange #AUDCAD #AUDCNH #ForexAnalysis #MarketOutlook #CentralBankPolicy #EconomicData #TradingInsights #GlobalMarkets

📈Market update 10/12/2024 ■ AUD/USD rose by about 1% overnight and is currently trading near 0.6450. The Australian dollar was boosted by news that Chinese authorities will increase policy stimulus next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged today (2:30 PM Sydney time). However, the RBA's post-meeting statement will garner market reaction. ■ The USD is currently trading near 106.1 points, slightly higher than the same time yesterday. U.S. Treasury yields rose by 2-5 basis points across the curve. The S&P 500 fell by 0.6%. Following Friday's non-farm payrolls report, market pricing for another 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week increased to about 85%. ■ AUD/CNH rose by 0.7% overnight. USD/CNH completely reversed yesterday's gains and is currently trading near 7.2650. The CNH was boosted by reports that Chinese leaders will ramp up policy stimulus next year. Chinese policymakers will set monetary policy as "moderately loose" instead of "prudent," and fiscal policy will be "more proactive." The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is reportedly scheduled for December 11-12. Key economic targets are unlikely to be revealed until the annual session of the National People's Congress in March. To read more: https://lnkd.in/ePhdxpgG #AUDUSD #ForexTrading #RBA #MonetaryPolicy #USDTreasuryYields #SP500 #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CNH #ChinaStimulus #AUDCNH #USDCNH #AUDJPY #BoJ #EconomicOutlook #GlobalMarkets #CurrencyMarkets

📈Market update 9/12/2024 • Wall Street had a mixed session on Friday, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.8%, the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, and the Dow Jones falling 0.3%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped 3 basis points to 4.15%, while crude oil fell 1.7% to $67.20 per barrel. AUD/USD traded in a range of 0.6373-0.64555 before closing at 0.6390. • Asian equities closed mixed on Friday, with the Nikkei down 0.7%, while the Hang Seng and Shenzhen indices rebounded, up 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. Australia’s ASX slid 0.6%, with energy stocks hit hardest, down 1.2%. • European equities opened stronger despite disappointing German industrial production data for October (- 1.0% m/m vs. 1.0% expected). The CAC led major indices, rising over 1.0%, followed by the Stoxx, up 0.5%. • U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remained stable around 4.18% ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, while Brent crude fluctuated near $72/bbl. EUR/USD and GBP/USD briefly touched highs of 1.0595 and 1.2773 in early trading. Data showed the U.S. added 227,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising 0.1% to 4.2%, and the participation rate falling 0.1% to 62.5%, below the expected 62.7%. The dollar weakened following the data release... To read more: https://lnkd.in/eWmc3U6m #WallStreet #MarketMix #GlobalMarkets #StockMarket #Nasdaq #SP500 #DowJones #TreasuryYields #CrudeOil #ForexMarket #AUDUSD #AsianMarkets #EuropeanEquities #GermanEconomy #NonFarmPayrolls #USJobsReport #UnemploymentRate #ConsumerSentiment #InflationExpectations #EconomicIndicators #FinancialMarkets #MarketAnalysis #GlobalEconomy #InvestorSentiment

📈Market update 6/12/2024 ■ The AUD/USD pair danced a tight waltz around 0.6440 last night. Tonight’s US payrolls report will be the puppet master for this currency duo. Come Tuesday, all eyes will be on the RBA’s policy pow-wow – the next big local shindig for the Aussie dollar. ■ Uncle Sam’s greenback took a breather, dipping below 105.8 points. Treasury yields and stocks played a game of musical chairs. Brent crude had a wild night, now sitting 0.4% lower than yesterday’s perch. OPEC+ decided to keep the oil taps tighter for another quarter, pushing their production cut reversal to April 2025. They’re also easing off the gas, slowing the unwinding to 120K barrels daily, down from the previous 180K plan. ■ The Fed Funds futures market is flirting with a 70% chance of a 25bp rate trim at the December 19 FOMC shindig. Tonight’s jobs report (12:30 am Sydney time) could be a game-changer. After October’s weather-and-strike-induced stumble, payrolls are expected to come roaring back. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eNFdKpuC #AUDUSD #ForexTrading #CurrencyMarkets #USDIndex #TreasuryYields #OPEC #OilPrices #FOMC #RateCut #JobsReport #AUDJPY #BoJ #Inflation #WageGrowth #MonetaryPolicy