Was sind einige Best Practices für die Dokumentation Ihrer Prognoseannahmen?

The most important is to understand your dynamic variables in your assumptions and this will help your methodological construct to update as variable changes. All of that to be done using a standardized format for documentation and presentation. This improves the quality and acceptance of the documentation before stakeholders and executives.

In addition, standard format with simplify consolidation process and it possible to get to executive level in a fast and accurate manner.

Establishing a standard format for documenting your forecasting assumptions ensures consistency and clarity across different forecasts and forecasters. Adopting a standardized template or structure helps organize information systematically, making it easier to track and review assumptions over time. Consider including sections for key categories of assumptions, such as economic factors, market conditions, customer behavior, and internal variables, along with fields for description, rationale, and source of each assumption.

One of the best practices for documenting your forecasting assumptions is to stick to a standard format, making it easier to understand and follow. This could be a spreadsheet, table, or any template but should ideally include the following elements: the name of the assumption, the source or basis of the assumption, the value or range of the assumption, the date when the assumption was made, and how the assumption impacts or affects the forecast. 📝 This method not only helps you keep your assumptions in order, but also aids in avoiding any confusion and makes comparison and updating of assumptions convenient. 👍

Documenting forecasting assumptions is vital for transparency and accuracy. Clearly state each assumption, ensuring they align with business goals. Provide context, explaining the rationale behind each assumption. Regularly review and update assumptions as conditions change. Clearly distinguish between internal and external factors impacting forecasts. Involve relevant stakeholders in the assumption-setting process for diverse perspectives. Maintain a centralized repository for easy access and version control. Finally, communicate assumptions clearly in documentation to enhance understanding and collaboration among team members involved in the forecasting process.

Especially in today's dynamic environment, using a standardized format for documenting forecasting assumptions is paramount. Consider employing a dynamic spreadsheet or a cloud-based collaborative tool like Google Sheets, ensuring real-time accessibility. Include elements such as assumption name, source, value or range, date, and impact, creating a comprehensive snapshot of each assumption. This structured approach not only enhances organization but also facilitates quick adaptation to changes in the dynamic landscape. It enables a more agile response to evolving conditions, allowing for efficient comparison, revision, and decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

I consider myself a very progressive forecaster, so I try to avoid making assumptions.

Classifying forecasting assumptions is like sorting your sock drawer - you've got your dependable ankle socks (known facts), your go-to wool socks (reasonable estimates), the funky patterned ones you wear on special occasions (educated guesses), and that one sock that's been through the wash too many times and is hanging on by a thread (wild cards). Prioritize the pairs that keep your feet warm and comfy, and keep an eye on that wild card - it might just surprise you! 🧦🔮 #ForecastingFun #SockDrawerAnalogy #KeepYourFeetWarm

Categorizing your assumptions into logical groups facilitates organization and analysis, enabling you to identify common themes, dependencies, and potential interrelationships among assumptions. Consider grouping assumptions by their relevance to specific aspects of the forecasting problem, such as demand drivers, supply constraints, external factors, and internal capabilities. This categorization helps prioritize critical assumptions, allocate resources effectively, and focus attention on areas of uncertainty or risk that may require further investigation or mitigation.

Provide clear and detailed explanations for each assumption to articulate the underlying rationale, logic, and evidence supporting your forecasts. Describe the factors, trends, or events that influenced the development of each assumption, as well as any assumptions or constraints inherent in your reasoning. Justify your assumptions with relevant data, historical trends, expert opinions, market research, or other sources of information to enhance transparency, credibility, and trustworthiness in your forecasts.

Building on the importance of a standardized format, another crucial practice is explaining the logic behind each assumption. Using tools like Google Sheets or dynamic spreadsheets ensures real-time adaptability in today's dynamic environment. Beyond the basic elements, provide a clear rationale for your choices, linking them to your data, goals, and context. Acknowledge limitations, risks, or biases, and detail how you've addressed them, adding depth to your documentation. This not only justifies your forecasting choices but also enhances transparency and credibility, fostering a more informed decision-making process.

How we review our assumptions is very important, once they have been noted down, "Who" we review the assumptions with should also be noted. Very often especially on new products we will have assumptions from R&D, marketing, sales, market access (in pharma) and local teams. Its vital to not lose their voice/expertise on the assumptions as more data flows through. It can become a commercial sales teams and forecasters function and we lose other voices who will have a diverse opinion on how we interpret the same data. We need to ensure that we continue to engage with wider expertise.

Regularly review and update your forecasting assumptions to reflect changes in market conditions, business dynamics, or external factors that may impact future outcomes. Set up a process for periodic reassessment and validation of assumptions, incorporating new data, feedback from stakeholders, and emerging trends into your forecasts. Establish clear criteria or triggers for revising assumptions, such as significant deviations from historical patterns, unexpected events, or shifts in customer preferences, to ensure the accuracy and relevance of your forecasts over time.

In addition to documenting the assumptions in a user manual, I often recommend forecasters and practitioners create a screen-share recording. Using your preferred screen-share recording software, spend 30-60 minutes recording yourself walking through the operating model. Highlight where the assumptions are baked in and where they're vouched. This way, in the future, anyone who touches the forecast model understands how to use it. For better organizing, be sure to add chapter/topic segmentation in the video recording so that the user can advance to the topic they're looking for.

Foster collaboration and alignment by sharing your forecasting assumptions with relevant stakeholders, decision-makers, and subject matter experts within your organization. Solicit feedback, insights, and alternative perspectives from diverse perspectives to validate assumptions, challenge assumptions, and identify blind spots or overlooked factors that may influence future outcomes. Encourage open communication and dialogue to build consensus, clarify misunderstandings, and promote a shared understanding of the assumptions underpinning your forecasts.

Consider the implications, risks, and uncertainties associated with each assumption, as well as potential scenarios or alternative outcomes that may arise. Incorporate sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, or Monte Carlo simulation techniques to assess the impact of variations in key assumptions on forecasted results and quantify uncertainty. Moreover, establish governance processes, controls, and accountability mechanisms to ensure the integrity, reliability, and traceability of forecasting assumptions throughout the forecasting lifecycle.

_ Aspects to consider in forecast process: Externally: If possible and in case of customer spending and budget availability, forecast process need to be aligned. Also, financial position and cashflow of your major customers may/should impact the way your forecast structured Internally: Your product availability and readiness should be considered in your forecast. Supply chain and inventory management has direct link to your forecast

Mis recomendaciones serían las siguientes: 1. Registro detallado: Documentar de manera detallada todos los supuestos utilizados en el proceso de pronóstico, incluyendo las fuentes de datos, métodos de análisis y cualquier ajuste realizado a los datos históricos. 2. Revisión y actualización: Regularmente los supuestos a medida que se obtiene nueva información o cambian las condiciones del mercado. 3. Transparencia y comunicación: De los pronósticos a todas las partes interesadas, lo que incluye la justificación de los supuestos y los posibles impactos en los resultados. 4. Seguimiento de desempeño: Lo que permite evaluar la precisión de los pronósticos en relación con los supuestos utilizados.

Strategic forecasting aims not to predict the future but to map it out. This mapping helps transform assumptions into actionable realities

A core disadvantage of every mind-set is that it is always, inevitably biased. Many of us have encountered situations in which completely plausible premises, based on solid expertise, have been used to construct a logically valid forecast, with virtually unanimous agreement - that turned out to be dead wrong. One can't see one's own biases as they are highly resistant to conscious efforts to compensate for them. But with some bias awareness training, you'll become able to recognize biases in other people's reasoning. Assumptions reveal one's biases. Share your assumptions for others to comment on your biases. Ask other people to share their assumptions so that you can recognize theirs. GROUP WORK is the best known remedy against biases.