Como você mede e avalia o impacto do seu planejamento de cenários no seu desempenho e competitividade?

Para medir e avaliar o impacto do planejamento de cenários no desempenho da empresa e assim ganhar competitividade, é preciso conversar constantemente com especialistas das mais variadas áreas, desde cientistas que desenvolvem vacinas, até técnicos de manutenção de fábricas. Ainda conversar, estudar, pesquisar as mudanças no consumo e nos consumidores. Por fim, ler, estudar e conversar com profissionais da área de tecnologia para entender como os avanços em especial, da inteligência artificial poderão mudar não só as empresas, mas os hábitos das pessoas, bem como dos países e do mundo, que no final poderão impactar a empresa.

A CI client in retail used scenario planning to anticipate market shifts. Key performance indicators (KPIs) like customer acquisition costs and market share were tracked. Through CI activities, they gathered data on competitors' promotional strategies and consumer behavior. When an unexpected competitor emerged, their scenario analysis, which included this competitor's potential market entry, allowed them to swiftly adjust their marketing strategy. The result was a maintained market share and a clear demonstration of the direct impact of CI-informed scenario planning on performance and competitiveness.

To measure the impact of scenario planning, start by setting clear objectives, like improved decision-making or increased market share. Use SMART indicators to track progress, such as the number of decisions influenced by scenario planning and their perceived quality by stakeholders.

Utilize diverse methods like surveys, interviews, focus groups, market research, financial reports, or web analytics. Employ both qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques, such as SWOT analysis, gap analysis, or trend analysis, to discern patterns, trends, and gaps. It's essential to ensure your data's reliability, validity, and relevance to your indicators and scenarios. This comprehensive approach will provide insightful, actionable information to guide your decision-making process.

To gauge the effectiveness of scenario planning, systematically collect and analyze data from internal surveys, performance metrics, and external trends. This analysis will offer insights into the impact on understanding, decision-making, and business outcomes.

Compare your actual performance and competitiveness with your expected outcomes for each scenario. Evaluate the influencing factors, such as internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats, and customer needs and preferences. Adjust your actions to optimize performance and competitiveness. Additionally, update your scenarios and indicators as the environment evolves to stay relevant and effective. This dynamic approach ensures continuous improvement and alignment with your goals.

Scenario planning impact assessment is an ongoing process requiring regular monitoring and adjustments. Continuously review indicators, analyze data, and identify improvement areas. If scenario planning isn't aiding strategic decisions, reconsider your development process, communication, or stakeholder engagement.

Report and explain your findings, insights, and recommendations from your scenario planning and data analysis. Highlight your achievements, challenges, and learnings from your actions and adjustments. Demonstrate how scenario planning has enhanced your performance, competitiveness, and added value to your CI activities. Solicit feedback and suggestions from stakeholders to refine and improve your scenario planning process and outcomes. Engaging stakeholders ensures transparency, fosters trust, and drives continuous improvement.

Effective communication with stakeholders is key for transparency and accountability, fostering support for scenario planning. Adapt your approach: senior management prefers high-level KPI summaries, while functional teams need detailed scenario reports.

Case study: UPS leveraged scenario planning to anticipate e-commerce trends, developing strategies for different futures like rapid growth and regulatory challenges. Identifying needs for capacity, flexible delivery, and tech advancements, UPS invested strategically to benefit from the e-commerce boom. They tracked indicators like e-commerce delivery volume, customer satisfaction, and operational efficiency to evaluate and refine their strategies. Overall, effective measurement and adaptation are key to maximizing the value of scenario planning.