Como você pode medir e melhorar a qualidade de sua decisão em cenários incertos e competitivos?

Setting targets and objectives is a foundational step as it provides clear direction and acts as a blueprint that aligns individual efforts with organizational goals, ensuring consistency and focus. Without defined objectives, actions may become scattered or reactive, leading to inefficiencies and missed opportunities.

To measure and improve decision quality in uncertain and competitive scenarios: Set Clear Goals: Define what success looks like to evaluate decisions against these benchmarks. Data-Informed Decisions: Use both quantitative and qualitative data for informed choices. Use Decision Frameworks: Employ tools like SWOT or risk analysis for structured decision-making. Learn from Outcomes: Regularly review past decisions, analyzing both successes and failures for improvement. Stay Adaptable: Be ready to pivot as new information emerges. Diverse Perspectives: Involve varied viewpoints for well-rounded decisions. Continual Evaluation: Regularly assess decision outcomes against goals to identify improvement areas.

A good decision-making process involves several steps, such as defining the problem, gathering information, identifying alternatives, analyzing them, and making the best decision based on the analysis and judgment. To improve the quality of decisions at the basic level, you can use various tools and techniques, such as: Decision Matrix: Assign weights to each factor and perform a simple calculation to make the final decision. SWOT Analysis: Identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to each alternative to help you make a more informed decision. Brainstorming: Generate a variety of ideas and solutions to address the problem, encouraging creativity and collaboration.

Effective decision-making requires information from many different sources, including external resources, market research, and expert opinions. Leaders should also challenge their assumptions and biases that may influence their evaluation and use critical thinking and feedback to validate their assumptions. They can use techniques such as SWOT analysis, decision matrix, or decision tree to compare and choose the best option for their situation. Personally, however, I recommend that leaders focus on what is unknown! Strategic problems won't be solved if you avoid what you don't know.

Gosto de dividir a equipe de análise em dois subgrupos, que realizam suas avaliações de forma independente, ampliando as perspectivas e reduzindo vieses. Cada grupo também atribui a si uma avaliação do grau de conforto com a análise conduzida, classificando a confiança nas decisões sugeridas. Após as análises, os grupos se reúnem para discutir as diferentes percepções, focando nos pontos que cada um deixou de explorar e que afetaram a confiança máxima. Isso ajuda a refinar as alternativas e melhorar a qualidade das decisões, considerando análise racional e percepção de risco.

Risk has many dimensions. Strategic decisions will always be complex and ambiguous, and in the end the assessment of whether you were lucky or right is complex. I recommend an approach that allows YOU to solve repeatable and predictable problems first. It is only at this stage that the risk (uncertainty) begins, but the result can and is worth taking care of by first improving what you already know. THIS allows you to analyze the risk-dependent part of the result that resulted from the decisions you made (based on what you know and could have solved before you exposed yourself to the risk)

My experience and work with leaders show that the decision-making process is more important to your future decisions than current results. The outcome may be a matter of good or bad luck, and it is your role as a leader to tell the difference. A rational decision-making process primarily includes the analysis and verification of assumptions, including hidden assumptions - i.e. such beliefs that are "obvious" in the boardroom. They often influence your decisions, and by not questioning them (and the status quo), you lose efficiency and money.

O aprendizado na tomada de decisão é contínuo e de longo prazo. Após cada ciclo de análise crítica, é fundamental identificar quais eventos ou consequências não previstas surgiram e como esses elementos podem ser melhor antecipados em decisões futuras. Esse processo permite o refinamento constante, ajustando métodos e ampliando a capacidade de prever resultados. Além disso, envolver outras partes impactadas na avaliação fornece perspectivas valiosas. O feedback externo enriquece o aprendizado, ajudando a corrigir pontos cegos e garantindo que futuras decisões sejam mais robustas e abrangentes.

Analyzing the results is key, but more important than that is verifying whether the results are the result of your decisions! Isn't it the case that a good decision is the result of "your decisions" and a bad one is the result of "external factors"? Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that :) To evaluate the results, you need to assess as best as possible the impact of external factors such as trends, changes in needs, competitors' actions and ... luck/bad luck. Because in the changing reality it should be 50/50. If it turns out that you are 90% unlucky, you need to verify the decision-making process, because it probably contains unreasonable assumptions.

Os três tipos de pensamento — sistêmico, analítico e crítico — devem ser aplicados de forma sequencial na tomada de decisão. O pensamento sistêmico ajuda a mapear todos os fatores envolvidos, garantindo uma visão abrangente. Em seguida, o pensamento analítico decompõe esses fatores em unidades menores para uma análise detalhada, permitindo identificar soluções concretas. Por fim, o pensamento crítico avalia os resultados, questionando a coerência entre as partes e o todo. Atribuir responsabilidades a diferentes pessoas ou subgrupos para cada etapa assegura que cada fase da análise seja conduzida de maneira adequada e rigorosa.