Opinion: 3 strategies BJP may use to break into AAP citadel in Delhi elections

After historic mandates in Haryana and Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party has set its eye on Delhi, which is scheduled for elections in February 2025. The party has pinned its hopes on anti-incumbency after ten years of Aam Aadmi Party rule and the arrest and subsequent release of top party leadership in the alleged liquor scam denting the AAP’s “party with a difference” image. The BJP doesn't have a leader to match the charisma of Arvind Kejriwal. However, its recent success in hyperlocal contests has given confidence to its supporters that the party will have its first chief minister in Delhi since 1998.

A strategic shift

In state polls since the 2024 general elections, the BJP has strategically shifted from the way it fought elections in the last ten years. Instead of contesting the elections in the name of Narendra Modi, the party fought a very localised, seat-by-seat contest in Haryana and Maharashtra, with the prime minister leading a few rallies - only four and nine respectively.

The BJP, with the help of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh cadre, ran a micromanagement campaign trumping the “mahaul” that was against its state governments. The Opposition, the Congress and the Maha Vikas Aghadi respectively, lacked the organisational muscle to counter the BJP’s hyperlocal strategy.

BJP’s strategies in Delhi

Strategy 1: BJP will be focusing on those seats which AAP has been winning consecutively for the past three elections as there is a high probability of anti-incumbency building up against those MLAs. The strength scanner of parties highlights their strong and weak seats. If a party has won a seat three times in the last three polls in 2013, 2015, and 2020, it is classified as very strong. Victory in two of the three elections is classified as strong; one out of three as moderate; and if a party has not won the seat ever in the last three polls, then it is classified as a weak seat. The AAP has 26 very strong seats, 35 strong, eight moderate, and one weak. The BJP has one very strong seat, five strong, 29 moderate, and 35 weak ones. The Congress has eight moderate and 62 weak seats.

A very strong seat implies that these seats may have developed a natural anti-incumbency, which the BJP is trying to exploit. The party is focusing on the AAP’s very strong and strong seats, making the elections hyperlocal, focusing on the non-performance of MLAs and highlighting local issues. The fact that the Municipal Corporation of Delhi is also now with the AAP means it could be facing double anti-incumbency and can’t blame the BJP for cleanliness/sewage issues.

Kejriwal is aware of this and has dropped a total of 20 sitting MLAs across all four lists, including two who opted out. In effect, the AAP has dropped 32 per cent of its sitting MLAs to neutralise local-level anti-incumbency. These decisions were based on ground feedback and multiple surveys assessing performance and popularity.

Party leaders familiar with the matter said their internal surveys showed that while a sizable portion of voters wanted Kejriwal back as chief minister, there was discontent against some legislators. The strategy appears aimed at pushing the burden of local non-performance onto MLAs while safeguarding Brand Kejriwal. Former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Deputy Speaker Rakhi Birla’s constituencies have also been shifted.

Strategy 2: BJP will be developing tailor-made strategies to ensure that it is able to retain the swing voters who backed the saffron party in the general elections 2024. Voters backed the BJP wholeheartedly in Lok Sabha elections, giving it a 7-0 mandate in 2014, 2019, and 2024. But the same Delhi voters made AAP sweep the Vidhan Sabha polls in 2015 and 2020. The results of the 2025 Vidhan Sabha elections hinge on whether this trend holds true or not again in February. Around 30 per cent of voters back the AAP in the Vidhan Sabha polls but back national parties — the BJP and the Congress (15 per cent each) — in the Lok Sabha polls.

The 15 per cent who swing between the AAP and the Congress are anti-BJP voters who see Congress in a better position to defeat the BJP at the national level and the AAP at the state level. Hence, they switch loyalties. The other 15 per cent who swing between the BJP and the AAP are non-core voters, not ideologically aligned to either, and switch loyalties due to many factors like development, leadership, beneficiary status etc.

The AAP got 24 per cent (-30 per cent compared to the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls), the BJP 55 per cent (+16 per cent), and the Congress 18 per cent (+15 per cent) in the 2024 general elections. The BJP is identifying these voters and if it manages to retain them, it could well win the state polls. Specific strategies including multiple meetings with the RSS are being planned for these voters, who are largely Purvanchalis, poor socio-economic class, middle class etc.

Strategy 3: BJP may prop up Congress at the state level and in seats where it has strong candidates to split the AAP vote share. It is very clear that the AAP has grown at the expense of Congress and “Others” in Delhi. In the 2008 Vidhan Sabha polls, which the Congress won for a record third term, it bagged 40 per cent vote share, BJP recorded 36 per cent while Others won 24 per cent. In the 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, the AAP bagged 54 per cent vote share, gaining 36 per cent from Congress and 18 per cent from Others, with the grand old party and “Others” reduced to just four per cent vote share.

In terms of seats tally, the AAP won 62 in 2020, gaining 43 from Congress, 15 from the BJP, and four from Others. The battle of Delhi which used to take place between the Congress and the BJP has now become a battle between the BJP and the AAP. The latter has taken over almost the entire vote base of the Congress, consisting of the poor, minorities (Muslims/Sikhs) and Dalits.

The AAP and the Congress, allies for the general elections, are contesting separately. Congress is trying to recover lost ground and has fielded ex-chief minister Sheila Dixit’s son Sandeep Dixit against Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi constituency. In specific seats where Congress has formidable candidates, the BJP can employ the strategy of propping up the grand old party to split the AAP’s core vote base and emerge victorious.