Opinion: The fight for Ambedkar's legacy signifies a big churn in Dalit politics

The treasury benches and the Opposition have been engaged in a war of words over Dr BR Ambedkar’s legacy in Parliament and outside. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accused Congress of insulting Ambedkar, the grand old party accused Amit Shah of demeaning him during a speech in the Rajya Sabha. This new-found love for Ambedkar is surprising given his tumultuous relationship with the Congress and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh/Hindu Mahasabha. Beneath this fight for legacy is hardcore politics.

The BJP, which suffered big losses in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, due to the Opposition’s narrative that the saffron party would change the Constitution and end reservations if it achieved Mission 400, was quick to react this time. As his 12-second video started circulating on social media platforms and WhatsApp groups, Home Minister Amit Shah held a press conference claiming his statement was taken out of context, stating his respect for Ambedkar, and accusing Congress of peddling lies. The party that recovered some lost ground amongst Dalits in Haryana and Maharashtra in the state elections does not want this to be squandered due to this controversy.

Voting pattern of Dalits

Scheduled Castes account for around 17 per cent of India’s population as per the 2011 census and 84 seats are reserved in the Lok Sabha for SCs. These voters are also kingmakers across many general category seats, making them an important vote bloc. Smaller parties, regional parties, and independents have bagged a significant share of the Dalit support in general elections over the years.

In the 1971 general elections, the Congress received 46 per cent support from Dalits, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh 10 per cent, and Others 44 per cent. By 1996, Kanshiram’s Bahujan Samaj Party in its infancy started capturing the imagination of Dalits, bagging seven per cent support. The Congress received 34 per cent support (-10 per cent), the BJP 14 per cent (+4 per cent), and Others bagged 45 per cent (+1 per cent).

Between 1999 and 2009, the BSP cemented its position as the number two party of choice for Dalits ahead of the BJP. In 2004, the Congress bagged 26 per cent of the Dalit vote (-8 per cent), the BJP 13 per cent (-1 per cent), the BSP 22 per cent (+15 per cent), and Others 39 per cent (-6 per cent). The BSP took away the significant support base of Congress, especially in North Indian states and Punjab.

In the Narendra Modi era, the BJP solidified its position amongst Dalits — helped by the complete decimation of the BSP and the further weakening of Congress. The BJP’s support doubled to 24 per cent in 2014 from 2009, before peaking at 34 per cent in 2019 and marginally declining to 31 per cent in 2024. The Congress party’s support has remained stable during this period 19 per cent-20 per cent, a loss of 7-8 per cent since the Manmohan Singh era.

Mayawati lost grip over Dalits during this period as non-Jatavs moved away from her even in her stronghold of Uttar Pradesh. The support of Others, mostly allies of either the Congress or the BJP increased to peak at 50 per cent during this period.

In terms of seats, Congress won 30 of the 84 SC reserved seats, BJP 12 and Others 42 seats (half) in 2009 Lok Sabha Polls. In 2014 and 2019, at the peak of the Modi wave, the BJP bagged 40-46 seats with Congress reduced to 6-7 seats. However, statements by some of its leaders that the party could change the constitution if it won 400 seats led to a significant blow with the party losing 16 seats, and Congress gaining 14 in 2024 general elections.

Setback and recovery

In the 2024 general elections, the BJP lost three per cent support of Dalits and its allies lost two per cent. In effect, the National Democratic Alliance lost five per cent support. On the other hand, the Congress lost one per cent support but its allies and strong regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Samajwadi Party etc. gained eight per cent support, in effect INDIA bloc gained seven per cent support. This resulted in a swing of 12 per cent, implying a loss of two per cent vote share for the NDA.

After these losses, the BJP took corrective measures and managed to recover lost ground amongst Dalits working on the Balmiki Samaj in Haryana and Matang/Mahar Samaj in Maharashtra, holding nukkad meetings along with the RSS. Among several steps to woo the Dalits in Haryana, the BJP government accepted the report of the Haryana Scheduled Caste Commission after the Supreme Court had held that states were constitutionally empowered to make sub-classifications within the SCs.

The sub-classification of SCs into the “deprived SCs” category comprising Dhanaks, Bazigars, Kabirpanthi, Balmikis, Mazahbis and Mazhabi Sikhs, and other SCs comprising Chamars, Rahgars, Raigars, Ravidassis, Ramdassis, and Mochis for reservations in government jobs also seemed to have worked in favour of the party.

The Congress received 42 per cent Dalit support in state elections in Haryana (-26 per cent compared to Lok Sabha) while the BJP received 40 per cent (+16 per cent), helping in neutralising some of the losses in the general elections where both parties were tied at five seats each. In Maharashtra, while the BJP-led Mahayuti didn’t gain much, the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi lost 27 per cent support amongst Dalits with smaller parties gaining at its expense.

Churn in Dalit politics

A churn in Dalit politics is happening at the national level. With the weakening of the BSP, a section of Dalits is looking for a new alternative. At its peak, the BSP used to enjoy 18 per cent-22 per cent support from Dalits pan-India in general elections from 1999 to 2009.

A section of Dalits is also debating mainstreaming and joining ranks with national parties for their welfare. Another section has started feeling that smaller parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and the Republican Party of India (Athawale) in Maharashtra have weakened the bargaining power of Dalits, acting as vote cutters. They do not have the potential to win on their own. On top of that, the SC order regarding sub-classification within the SC reservations (Haryana is already implementing it) is also creating a wedge between deprived and relatively well-off SCs.