- Despite recent growth, PC shipments are set to slow down in 2025, Canalys predicts
- Proposed Trump tariffs and Windows 11 upgrade costs are to blame
- Import tariffs could increase PC prices by as much as 46%
New research from Canalys has confirmed recent healthy growth in the US PC market, with shipments rising 7% year-over-year to 17.9 million units in the third quarter of 2024, however the outlook for the near future isn’t quite so positive.
The firm stated market recovery could slow down in the months ahead due to potential headwinds related to macroeconomic policies – a result of Trump’s upcoming presidency.
Further factors, like weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle despite the outgoing OS, Windows 10, losing support in October 2025, are also set to impact the market.
US PC market facing upcoming challenges
With quarterly growth set to continue into the first quarter of 2025, Canalys is predicting a shrinking market in the second quarter, with third- and fourth-quarter growth barely in single-digit figures.
The predicted 2% growth for 2025 as a whole will be significantly less than the 6% expected in 2024. Last year's figures have not yet been released.
Despite slowing growth, buyer splits remain fairly consistent, with consumers accounting for around 37% of purchases and commercial customers taking 43-44% of the market. Government and education customers make up the remaining buyers.
Canalys Analyst Greg Davis commented: “With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near-term as they have been over the last year or two.”
The company’s release cites recent Consumer Technology Association research, which suggests that proposed tariffs under Trump’s upcoming leadership could increase laptop and tablet prices by as much as 46%. Smartphones could also see a 26% price hike following proposed tariffs of 10-20% on imports from most countries, and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.
A struggling market and rising costs mark a significant change from Canalys’ expectations from September 2024, when the company declared that US PC shipments could grow by 6% in both 2024 and 2025.
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