Today, Eldar Vakhitov tells us a tale of two countries, Bulgaria and Croatia, and their divergent paths since joining ERM II in 2020. While Croatia successfully adopted the euro in 2023, bringing significant economic benefits, including lower financing costs and accelerated GDP growth, Bulgaria's journey has been hampered by political instability. Despite strong fiscal fundamentals, Bulgaria's euro adoption remains elusive. Read the full article to understand how the seemingly similar economic fates of the two countries have diverged significantly. #croatia #bulgaria #bondvigilantes https://lnkd.in/eMx4mgh3
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For financial professionals only. Commentary on bond markets by M&G's retail bond team.
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Commentary on bond markets by M&G's retail bond team for Investment Professionals only. No other persons should rely on the information contained in this page.
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From Netflix's "Kaos" to European Bond Markets, we are witnessing a tale of modern Greek revival. Alexander Zemek-Parkinson illustrates that just as Eurydice returns from the underworld in Netflix's "Kaos", Greece is making a remarkable comeback in the bond markets. With yields now comparable to Germany's at the 2-year mark and outperforming French bonds across several maturities, is this a temporary phenomenon or a sign of deeper structural changes in the Eurozone? #kaos #bondvigilantes #europeandebt https://ow.ly/foVb50Uj4wE
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France's economic and political struggles are raising significant concerns for the future of the European Union. Rob Borrows' latest article for Bond Vigilantes explores the deepening fiscal pressures, political instability, and rising populism in France, and what these mean for European unity. Could these challenges signal a new era of fragmentation within the EU? Dive into Rob's analysis to understand the potential implications for the European project. #bondvigilantes #france #europeanunion https://ow.ly/p28050UhlyV
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Richard Woolnough discusses the state of the US economy in his new post on Bond Vigilantes. With all eyes on the Presidential election at the start of November, attention now turns to the labour market - a key economic indicator for policy decisions. Richard discusses the complex puzzle of the current labour data, with signs pointing in multiple directions. Read the full article to get key insights into where the US economy could go next. #useconomy #labourmarket #bondvigilantes https://ow.ly/6hjq50Uc4VV
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This week, Bond Vigilantes highlights Charles de Quinsonas’ latest insights on US, European, and emerging market high yield bonds. With Treasury yields above 4%, high yield bonds are offering attractive yields — but credit spreads have tightened to multi-year lows. Charles asks: are today’s tight spreads too optimistic about future defaults? Broker expectations hint at higher default rates in 2025, yet spreads imply a different story. So, are credit markets setting up for a surprise? Read on to see what might be ahead for investors. https://ow.ly/rbiI50TXTia
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This Halloween, it’s not just ghosts and ghouls causing fear – financial markets also give us plenty of reasons to be spooked. From crumbling consumer confidence to rising debt burdens, the economic landscape is littered with eerie signs of instability. In what has become an annual Halloween tradition for the Bond Vigilantes, they are exploring five charts that reveal unsettling trends in global markets. Click the link to read the full article if you dare... #bondvigilantes #bondmarkets #monetarypolicy https://lnkd.in/ebDmrgER
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How did Venezuela, once rich in oil and potential, spiral into economic collapse? In his latest blog for the Bond Vigilantes, Michael Talbot uncovers the hidden forces behind the country’s downfall under Nicolas Maduro’s leadership. Discover how policy missteps and international sanctions turned Venezuela’s vast oil wealth into a double-edged sword, leaving millions to face the consequences. A must-read for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of economic and political turmoil in Latin America. #venezuela #latinamerica #bondvigilantes https://lnkd.in/e8Fb8dYN
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Today, Robert Burrows returns to the Bond Vigilantes to explore the relationship between monetary policy and soaring government debt levels. Traditional transmission mechanisms are evolving, but are they constraining central banks' ability to manage inflation effectively? With interest payments on government debt reaching unprecedented levels, today's article looks at the risks of 'fiscal dominance' and its implications for economic growth, policy decisions, and investment strategies. #bondvigilantes #monetarypolicy #governmentdebt https://lnkd.in/eC_yVCgN
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Robert Burrows returns to the Bond Vigilantes this week to discuss Germany's fiscal policy and its impact on the country's economic performance. While Germany's adherence to its constitutional "debt brake" has led to short-term financial challenges, he examines how this fiscal restraint might position the nation favourably in the long run, especially as other countries grapple with mounting debt burdens. Please read the full article to understand the potential long-term benefits of Germany's cautious approach and its implications for investors in an era of rising global debt. https://lnkd.in/ez8hd8v2 #bondvigilantes #germany #debtbrake
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Emerging market debt could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis point rate cut. In the latest article for the Bond Vigilantes, Michael Talbot delves into what this shift towards monetary easing could mean for this asset class — discussing historical patterns, potential obstacles, and future expectations. Dive into the full article to see how this new phase of US monetary policy could shape the future of emerging market debt. Read the blog here: https://lnkd.in/esiAwhbp #bondvigilantes #federalreserve #emergingmarkets
The Fed’s easing era
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