The World This Week: What We’re Watching in 2025

By Mike Froman

This year saw no shortage of tectonic geopolitical developments: the entry of long-neutral Sweden into NATO, Ukrainian forces’ incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Israeli strikes in Iran and Lebanon, the election of Donald Trump, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol soon after he declared martial law.

The year also saw the continuation of longer-term trends that were no less consequential, from ever-improving AI to the increasing division of the world into blocs to the growing threat of climate change (with 2024 ranking as the hottest year on record).

As the saying goes, predictions are hard, especially about the future. But to gain some insight into the year ahead, I sat down this week with a group of CFR’s fellows to ask them what they would be looking out for in 2025.

The Middle East seems poised to dominate headlines. Will post-Assad Syria unify disparate opposition groups? Or will it remain a failed state, only this time, run by Islamists? Syria’s fate will not only define the future for the country’s twenty-three million people but also have a significant impact on its immediate neighbors: Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.

As for Iran, will 2025 be the year the country races to develop an actual nuclear capability? On one hand, in times of crisis such as the present, Tehran tends to avoid provocations, and so it might seek negotiations with the United States, particularly before European sanctions snap back. On the other hand, given that Iran has witnessed the degradation of it major proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah), the loss of its chief client state (Syria), the fecklessness of its missile capability (against the defenses of Israel, the United States, and other partners), and the destruction of its air defenses (by Israel’s recent strikes), the regime might well be more incentivized than ever to develop the ultimate deterrent.

And then there is the Israel factor: Israeli leaders are filled with confidence after defying outside entreaties to end the war in Gaza and de-escalate their country’s conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. Euphoric and emboldened, they may decide that this is the year to strike Iran’s nuclear program and set it back years.

What does 2025 hold for another war zone, Ukraine? Trump has promised to end the conflict there, but the fact remains that the Ukrainian and Russian visions of a settlement differ wildly, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little interest in serious negotiations.

Rather than end, the conflict may well escalate in 2025. This week, a Ukrainian operative assassinated a high-ranking Russian general in Moscow, and earlier, Putin threatened to target “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with a new ballistic missile. But over the course of next year, Putin will likely face mounting domestic problems. Russia’s central bank has forecast economic growth of 0.5 to 1.5 percent in 2025, down from 3.5 to 4 percent in 2024, suggesting that the wartime boom may have run its course.

A related question is how far China is prepared to go in supporting its “no limits” partner, Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping has evinced little outward disapproval of Putin’s war in Ukraine—to the contrary, China is supplying vital military technology and support to Russia—but 2025 may be the year we start to see slivers of daylight between the two revisionist powers, as each tries to cut deals with Trump and the constraints on their alignment become more evident.

China remains preoccupied with Taiwan. Last week, China held its largest maritime military exercises in decades. Involving nearly ninety vessels, the drills seemed designed to send the message that Beijing had the power to blockade the island and prevent U.S. allies from coming to its rescue.

The return of Trump cuts both ways for Taiwan. On one hand, the president-elect has promised to sharpen U.S. competition with Beijing. On the other, he seems to harbor no affinity for the democratic island and has criticized its success in becoming a semiconductor powerhouse, in his view, at the United States’ expense. President Joe Biden mused about coming to the defense of Taiwan in the context of a Chinese invasion; Trump has suggested he might slap tariffs on China instead.

The biggest humanitarian crisis in the world at the moment is the civil war in Sudan, which has been raging since the spring of 2023. The crisis is only expected to get worse in 2025, as outside powers—including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—continue to meddle in the conflict.

Elsewhere on the continent, it will be worth watching the simmering conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, the chronic Islamist insurgency in northern Nigeria, South Africa’s G-20 presidency, and potentially volatile elections expected in 2025 in Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Cameroon.

Latin American nations, already struggling to absorb twenty million forcibly displaced migrants, are bracing for a renewed exodus from Venezuela as Nicolas Maduro holds onto the presidency in defiance of the 2024 election results.

Against this geopolitical backdrop are some worrisome economic trends: potential tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve, the impact of tariffs—and retaliation—on China as well as on U.S. allies and partners, the unsustainable trajectory of U.S. deficits and debt. And all these trends are mounting at a time when the markets are “priced for perfection,” meaning they assume the best about the year ahead.

Some of these concerns were shared by a group of twenty-five business leaders I met with earlier in the month as part of CFR’s CEO Leadership Circle. They expressed anxiety about tariffs, about a potential clash with the Fed, and about heightened geopolitical competition with China. They also expressed unease about changes in U.S. immigration policy that could shrink the labor pool.

But overall, the CEOs were notably bullish on the U.S. economy, expecting continued strong growth, low unemployment, falling interest rates, and lower energy costs—not to mention less regulation and antitrust enforcement under the Trump administration.

Another source of optimism among business leaders: the United States’ advantage in cutting-edge technologies, especially AI. They hoped the incoming administration would strike the right balance between making sure that AI is used responsibly and encouraging innovation.

Of course, if the past is prologue, the year ahead will be filled with surprises—some good, some bad—that no one will have predicted. In 2025, the old cliché will certainly hold true: expect the unexpected.

OTHER ANALYSIS FROM THIS WEEK

A Year of Elections and Democratic Challenges

By Diana Roy

Voters across some eighty countries, home to an estimated four billion people—roughly half the world’s population—headed to the polls to cast their vote in 2024, making it the year of elections. How did democracy fare? Read the article

U.S. Election 2024 by the Numbers

By James M. Lindsay

Electoral College electors convened this week in state capitals across the country to cast their votes. The formal vote went as projected with Donald Trump winning election to be the forty-seventh president of the United States. Here is a recap of how the vote went in 2024. Read more on The Water’s Edge

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken Visits CFR 

Outgoing Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and CFR President Mike Froman discussed the Joe Biden administration’s foreign policy and diplomacy, including his focus on rebuilding alliances and partnerships abroad to respond to shared challenges. Watch the discussion

Elections in Asia: A Troubling Trend for Democracy

By Josh Kurlantzick

The year 2024 likely saw the highest number of people voting in recorded history. But in Asia, where most people voted, elections did not mean progress for democracy, which has been on a decade-plus-long regression. Read the expert opinion

Africa’s Democratic Momentum

By Ebenezer Obadare

As evidenced by events and incidents from various parts of Africa, Africans’ support for the tenets of liberal democracy has never been sturdier, notably contradicting the trend in the advanced liberal democracies where cynicism about liberal democracy has been rising. Read more on Africa in Transition

China’s Stunning 2024 Export Growth

By Brad Setser and Michael Weilandt

China’s weak domestic economy and ever expanding production capacity, juiced with an explicit policy of directing state bank credit toward manufacturing, has led to a surge in Chinese exports. Europe is losing out. Read more on Follow the Money

Trump Faces Foreign Policy Tests Ahead

By James M. Lindsay

Trump is inheriting a difficult foreign policy inbox that may only get more challenging. Read more on The Water’s Edge

A Perilous Moment for France—and Europe

By Matthias Matthijs

The fall of the French government, along with political uncertainty in Germany, threatens to leave Europe rudderless amid growing tensions over migration, Ukraine, and energy policy. Read the expert take

The Need for Stricter Sanctions on Russia

By Edward Fishman

Trump has promised to secure a just peace between Russia and Ukraine in his second term. His success or failure will depend on whether the West can give Russia a reason to negotiate in good faith—by mustering the will to tighten sanctions. Read the analysis

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Dr. Atul Gawande on the Future of Artificial Intelligence and Global Health

Dr. Atul Gawande, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) assistant administrator for global health, discussed the future of global health, the role of artificial intelligence, USAID’s key accomplishments since the COVID-19 pandemic with CFR’s inaugural Bloomberg Chair in Global Health Thomas Bollyky . Watch the conversation