The Three Peaks in Life: How Demographic Shifts Will Reshape Australian Housing Markets
Michael Yardney
I bring investors clarity in the chaos of all the mixed messages, sharing my 50 yrs perspective. Voted in the top 50 Influential Australian Thought Leaders. Host of the Michael Yardney & the Demographics Decoded Podcasts
Understanding how Australia’s demographics will shape future housing preferences is an integral part of the strategic planning process for property investors.
The "Three Peaks in Life"—family formation, midlife career shifts, and retirement—are pivotal milestones that influence where and how people choose to live, and if you want to own an investment-grade property that will outperform the markets these are important to understand,
These peaks have always existed, but today, their timing and impact have significantly shifted, creating opportunities and challenges across Australia’s housing landscape.
So let’s explore what these changes mean for homeowners and property investors.
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The First Peak: Family Formation
many people suggest population growth drives housing demand but in fact family formation is actually the cornerstone of housing demand.
Historically, previous generations started families earlier—baby boomers often married and had children in their early 20s.
Today, millennials are delaying this stage of life, typically starting families in their early to mid-30s.
This delay is driven by factors such as prolonged education, taking a gap year, career building and the rising cost of living.
However, when millennials are ready to have a family, it sets off a ripple effect.
Couples in compact inner-city apartments usually find these spaces inadequate and begin seeking larger homes.
Millennials, Australia’s largest generational cohort, are now moving to the suburbs and even regional towns in search of three- and four-bedroom houses with backyards.
How this reshapes housing markets:
Increased demand in the suburbs: Millennials are leaving the city centre and near city apartments looking for family-sized homes in middle-ring suburbs and affordable regional hubs.
Stronger focus on amenities: Schools, childcare centres, parks, and transport links are critical factors in their choice of location.
Impact on inner-city markets: As millennials move out, inner-city apartments are likely to see increased vacancies, especially if they lack family-friendly features. However, this could spur growth in build-to-rent developments targeting young professionals.
Investment opportunities:
Not all millennials buy their home, many initially rent, so as a property investor, it's worth considering properties in family-oriented suburbs with good schools and lifestyle infrastructure.
Suburbs with improving transport links are likely to see significant capital growth.
Regional areas near major cities, such as Geelong, Newcastle, and Wollongong, also offer strong potential as millennials embrace more remote work flexibility.
The Second Peak: Midlife Career Shifts
The second peak reflects the midlife stage when people reassess their careers, lifestyles, and housing needs.
Traditionally labelled a “midlife crisis,” this phase often involves upgrading to larger homes or relocating for career or lifestyle reasons.
Today’s midlife cohort, dominated by Gen X, is smaller than the boomer and millennial generations, making its current impact on housing markets relatively subdued.
However, as millennials, who are now between their late 20s and early 40s, enter this phase their sheer numbers will create a significant surge in demand for larger homes and properties in aspirational suburbs.
Older millennials who are now in their peak earning years (statistically around age 43), are also entering their highest spending phase.
They’re likely to seek homes that accommodate growing families and provide more space, comfort, and proximity to elite schools.
This shift often coincides with their children becoming teenagers and creating demand for additional living space.
How this reshapes housing markets:
McMansion revival: Large family homes with multiple bedrooms, home offices, and entertainment areas will see increased demand.
Competition for Baby Boomer stock: As millennials upgrade, they’ll compete for homes vacated by retiring boomers. However, affordability may limit access to inner suburban housing stock, pushing millennials toward outer suburbs.
Higher spending power: Millennials’ peak earning years will boost demand for premium housing, high-end home improvements, and quality appliances.
Investment opportunities:
Consider larger homes in established and gentrifying suburbs that millennials will target in the next decade.
Properties near elite schools or with access to private schooling options will carry a premium.
Areas with lifestyle appeal—cafes, parks, and boutique retail precincts—will remain highly sought after.
The Third Peak: Retirement
Retirement is the final peak and is obviously marked by a significant transformation in housing preferences.
For baby boomers—the wealthiest generation in Australian history—this phase often involves selling large family homes and relocating to lifestyle destinations.
Retirement hotspots like the Sunshine Coast, Noosa, and the Gold Coast are likely to remain favourites.
But not all retirees are moving to beachfront villas.
Many are opting to downsize - OK “rightsize” while staying close to family, friends, and familiar community networks.
However, Australia faces a challenge here: a lack of suitable downsizing options in established suburbs.
Social isolation is another major issue.
Many retirees remain in car-dependent suburbs, where losing a partner can significantly impact mental health and mobility.
The shift toward walkable communities, where retirees can access healthcare, social activities, and public transport, will play a critical role in shaping retirement housing.
How this reshapes housing markets:
Rising demand for lifestyle properties: Demand for coastal and regional lifestyle markets will remain strong, particularly for retirees seeking warmer climates and natural beauty.
Downsizing in urban areas: Demand for two-bedroom townhouses or retirement-friendly apartments in inner and middle-ring suburbs is rising, but supply is limited.
Shift to walkable communities: Baby boomers increasingly value locations where they can live independently without relying on cars.
Investment Opportunities:
Consider investing in properties near lifestyle amenities such as beaches, golf courses, and vibrant town centres.
Retirement developments in walkable suburbs with strong healthcare access will see strong demand.
Mixed-use developments incorporating healthcare, retail, and community spaces could become valuable assets.
The role of infrastructure and policy
None of these demographic shifts occur in isolation.
Housing trends must be supported by adequate infrastructure, including transport, schools, healthcare, and social services.
Millennials moving to outer suburbs will need new schools, while retirees will require better healthcare access in regional areas.
Australia has some of the world’s best demographic data, yet turning these insights into action remains a challenge.
Urban planners must prioritise medium-density housing in established suburbs to allow downsizers to remain in their communities.
Meanwhile, state and federal governments must depoliticise infrastructure planning to ensure the timely delivery of roads, schools, and public transport.
Key lessons for property investors
Demographic peaks create predictable demand: Housing demand will continue to shift as millennials and baby boomers transition through the three peaks. Investors who align their strategies with these trends can reap significant rewards.
Invest where supply is scarce: Family-friendly housing, lifestyle properties, and downsizing options will remain in high demand for decades.
Focus on the future: considering you will own your investment property for a number of decades, it's important to understand the demographic changes ahead.
Consider renting trends: Millennials may increasingly opt for renting family homes in desirable areas while investing elsewhere—a trend known as rent-vesting.
The Three Peaks in Life framework offers a clear lens through which to view Australia’s housing markets.
By understanding these predictable demographic shifts, you can position yourself to meet the demands of a changing market while creating long-term wealth through strategic property investment.
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