Supercharging the future - Is electric commercial vehicle segment the missing piece?

In this last article in the Supercharging the future mini-series, I am going to focus on an important aspect of electric vehicles (EVs) that could significantly speed-up the city-wide fleet electrification efforts i.e., what can be done to go beyond private cars and increase the penetration of EVs in the commercial vehicle market. In my previous articles, I attempted to give a holistic analysis of EV supply chain ecosystem, highlighting how all elements must be fulfilled with sustainability in mind, to maximize the environmental benefits of electrifying any kind of fleet, from private vehicles to commercial ones. However, the majority of references and studies easily accessible to the wider public tend to focus on electrification of private cars, often neglecting other vehicle types. Hence, we are missing an important commercial vehicle and public transportation segments that are heavily contributing to the roadside air pollution in our city.

Just a couple of weeks ago I had a pleasure to participate in an important event: ReThink HK 2022 sustainability conference. It is our city's most ambitious business event for sustainable development, providing a cross-sector platform to champion ESG transformation and showcase game-changing innovation. During this event, I was invited to join the open dialogue on how Hong Kong can achieve zero vehicular emission by 2050. Interestingly, a good part of the discussion was focused exactly on commercial vehicles, a topic not often covered in Hong Kong’s eMobility context.

What are “commercial vehicles”?

Based on vehicle type, the commercial market is usually classified into light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles as well as public transportation such as various buses and light buses, both of which can be categorized under private, public, and franchised. Since taxis are used to transport paying passengers and are not classified as part of private vehicles segment, taxis are also included under the “commercial vehicles” definition.  

Source: ReThink HK 2022, with my co-panelists Sylvia He (CUHK), Nelson Chow (EY, ISM-HK), David Fung (Inchcape), Michael Law (Transport Department, HKSAR Government) and Cliff Wu (Hong Kong EV Power)

Why we need to talk about commercial vehicle? What's the problem statement?

So far in Hong Kong, the majority of investments and policies have been directed at the private vehicles segment, particularly through purchase incentives and the EV charging at Home Subsidy Scheme (EHSS). This contributed to Hong Kong’s market recording steady growth of private EVs, currently reaching a 4% penetration rate, with 36,402 electric cars out of 918,758 registered vehicles (as of August this year). The growth in EV penetration rate is projected to continue and reach double digits before 2030.

However, while eMobility is growing in passenger car segments, its advance in the commercial vehicle sector remains sluggish. When combatting air pollution, this remains a core aspect of the challenge. Commercial vehicles are a major source of roadside air pollution in Hong Kong, accounting for as much as 95% of the vehicular emissions of major air pollutants in the city: respirable suspended particulates and nitrogen oxides.

Unfortunately, Hong Kong is still one of the most polluted cities when compared with other major metropolitan cities such as Paris, London, or New York. In London for example, a controversial, but eventually successful Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) was introduced in 2019 for high emission vehicles, bringing the UK capital city air pollution to more acceptable levels – in line with WHO standards. Whilst such policies might not be suitable for Hong Kong, particularly given its high population density, there are alternative polices that may be potentially applicable to our city, like financial and non-financial incentives (e.g., convenience, better user experience, practical considerations etc.) 

Sourced online from Bloomberg: pollution in selected major cities. Hong Kong is still high in air pollution index rankings

As discussed in my previous articles, Hong Kong is pursuing an ambitious goal to cease all Internal Combustion Engine (ICEs) by 2035 or earlier, meaning that the new cars could be all electric by as early as 2030. This is also in line with roadmaps of the majority of leading automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s), having announced the phasing out of ICEs cars by 2030 – 2040, including manufacturers as Ford, GM and Daimler. Other car segments, like commercial vehicles and fleets of government and public organizations that also offer a huge potential of being electrified. For example, the Toyota HIACE van has plan to go electric by 2025 and Scania has launched the first electric truck in Hong Kong.

To maximize the impact of the ambitious carbon reduction targets, it is imperative to include commercial vehicles in Hong Kong’s electrification roadmap. However, there are still some important obstacles to the uptake of electric commercial vehicles in Hong Kong. The availability of charging infrastructure, operational limitations like battery performance and range, as well as higher upfront cost seem to be the largest barriers to adoption.

Earlier this year, I have moderated a SCMP Climate Change Summit on eMobility. Venessa Wong, Regional Director, Scania Hong Kong Limited, is one of our esteemed panelists and I am glad to see Scania not only announced 20% CO2 reduction from their products by 2025 but also successfully launched the first e-truck in Hong Kong which is a fantastic start.

Charging infrastructure availability

The topic of charging infrastructure was widely discussed during the ReThink event and many respondents for the live poll showed that the lack of adequate charging infrastructure is one of the main reasons for delaying the decision to switch to EVs.

As of June this year, Hong Kong had 5,046 EV chargers for public use including 2,746 medium chargers and 877 quick chargers covering all 18 districts. This gives a 7:1 ratio between available public chargers and EVs. Although these numbers might seem in line when compared with other major cities (e.g., London has around 5,000 public charging stations), Hong Kong’s population density and high-rise buildings offer limited access to private charging infrastructure. For now, this number is mostly contributed by private vehicles. Hong Kong is a small city and if we have to fully roll out electric commercial vehicle fleets, the Government should start smart city planning with charging infrastructure planning in mind immediately.

To meet the charging demand for the entire ecosystem, other charging location segments, such as public charging will have to compensate and absorb this demand. This creates a higher “competition” for access to public chargers by private and commercial vehicles.

e-Buses

Hong Kong bus operator KMB, to move forward, slowly but steadily to upgrading their entire fleet of over 500 buses to electric buses (e-buses) by 2040, a decade ahead of an earlier target. The company already has 30 electric single-deckers in its fleet and recently purchased additional 52 double-deck electric buses from China’s BYD and the United Kingdom’s ADL, which are planned to be delivered by next year. The company currently has charging stations in 14 of its bus depots, but further infrastructure developments are needed to support growing commercial fleets.

In fact, when compared with cities leading in e-bus usage, like Shenzhen, Hong Kong’s charging infrastructure is still far from being sufficient. The neighboring city has started the buses electrification effort in early 2000’s and have built-up an impressive e-buses fleet of over 16,000 fully electric vehicles. One of the bus companies, the Shenzhen Eastern Bus Company’s achieved an e-bus versus charging point ratio of 2:1 in 2018. There is still a long way to go for Hong Kong but recent developments in city planning and policies are promising. The Government has been working with the bus operators to install new charging facilities for single-deck e-buses to conduct top-up charging during daytime, to test the suitability of this operational mode for frequent bus services in Hong Kong. 

Furthermore, the provision of charging facilities in bus terminus or public transport interchanges are of great importance to full electrification of franchised bus fleet. The public charging facilities could support opportunity charging of e-buses in non-peak hours during daytime, subject to the actual needs of different routes. 

Sourced online from FuelCellsWorks: first all-electric double-decker bus launched in Hong Kong in 2022.

e-HVD

The heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) are next to the buses in requiring strong electrification initiatives, given this type of vehicles is gaining market share year by year in China, Europe and the US.

China specifically accounts for vast majority of electric heavy-duty vehicles (e-HVD) registrations. Nearly 90% of global new registrations were done in China in 2021, while only four years earlier, in 2017 all - yes 100%! of global registrations of e-HVD were in China.

However, sales in the US and Europe picked up rapidly in the past few years, driven by an increase in available models in those markets, policy support, rapidly improving technical viability and economic competitiveness of electric trucks in certain applications.

It is true that the technologies of e-HVD are developed at a relatively slower pace than other commercial vehicles, and these types of EVs are also significantly more expensive than their ICE counterparts and have greater demand for quick charging than light duty vehicles.

Currently one type of e-medium goods vehicles (a 5.5t electric truck) has been deployed in Hong Kong this year, as part of a trial by Kerry Logistics to shift to alternative fuel vehicles. But there is a big potential for further developments. In terms of the major players in the e-HDV market, Sany, Yutong and Hanma (Hualing) were the “Big 3” e-HVD manufacturers, all China-based.

Some projections for 2022 e-HVD sales in China indicates as many as 200,000 units for China, compared with 80,000 in 2021. China is forecasted to remain ahead of other regions until 2030. In this context, Hong Kong could take advantage of its close bonds with GBA and could focus, for example, on electrification of the medium and heavy-duty market for urban distribution (i.e. that can be operated from few strategic logistic hubs without the need for a territory wide charging network) as well as long-haul trucks. 

Sourced online from SCMP: Kerry Logistics deployed first in Hong Kong 5.5 tone electric medium duty vehicle.

e-Taxis

When it comes to electric taxis (e-taxis), Hong Kong does not have any operating e-taxis or dedicated charging facilities. The government is already planning to run a small-scale trial involving four e-taxis and is going to install 10 quick chargers for e-taxis on Lantau and in Sai Kung this year, and is looking for suitable locations, such as taxi stands, to set up more of dedicated quick charge points.

These are important initial steps since buses, including franchised and non-franchised buses, private and public light buses, and taxis contribute respectively to 3.5% and 1.9% of total carbon emissions in HK.

Moreover, since the nature of taxis operations entails high annual mileage within densely populated areas and relatively short trip lengths, taxis could be particularly attractive for switching to e-taxis. It offers a relatively high potential to improve urban air quality compared to an average private vehicle being replaced by an EV.

Taxis run over 400km/day in 20 hours and therefore require a territory wide charging infrastructure to cater to their poor route predictability.

Sourced online from hkcarchannel.com: BYD deploying all-electric taxis for a pilot project in Hong Kong.

electric public light buses (e-PLBs)

Hong Kong does not have any operating, private or public electric light buses yet. Having said that, the Government reserved HK$80 million to launch a 12-month trial scheduled for 2023 to support about 40 electric public light buses (e-PLBs).

To charge the new ePLBs the opportunity charging, or fast pantograph charging, has been proposed as an alternative to carrying heavy batteries and is thought to be a good solution for Hong Kong’s hard-working minibus fleet. The government will set up nine pantograph charging stations at interchanges across the city.

Overall, 2023 should bring an exponential increase in number of electrified commercial vehicles on Hong Kong roads. Therefore, a city planning that delivers access to fit for purpose, reliable, efficient, and dedicated charging infrastructure facilities will be critical to support these segments’ commercial requirements.

These should be strategically located to enable smooth and efficient charging operations, available and reliable to meet high service and ongoing maintenance requirements of quick charging facilities for top ups during the day.

Moreover, the charging infrastructure should be integrated to the grid efficiently to maintain low electricity tariffs - i.e., getting grid ready with minimum investment by selecting optimal locations and enabling smart charging capabilities.

Battery performance and range constraints

Concerns about long charging times and the comparatively short range of EVs has been raised by many fleet operators, from goods vehicles to public transport and taxis. There is a fear among stakeholders that the charging time would not only increase the “time cost” of operating an EV fleet, but that it would also disrupt the normal operation of their commercial fleet.

In fact, when comparing the EV charging time to refueling a petrol or light petroleum gas LPG tank, charging EV fleets during a normal working shift would not be feasible without robust quick charging infrastructure.

As an example, taxis and buses in HK have a high daily mileage (respectively around 400km and 250km a day), and due to the battery performance, there would be need for top up(s) charging during a shift.

Moreover, the battery performance limitations have been stopping many cities from deploying e-buses specifically. The already mentioned, successful example of e-buses uptake in Shenzhen, where ten years ago early performance issues required two e-buses to replace the work of one diesel bus.

Currently however, the rate of replacement from diesel to e-buses is almost equal. However, many cities still face limitations with the range and power of their e-buses, hence it is important to run trials to select best viable options. Besides, Hong Kong’s hilly terrain could impact e-buses ability to meet schedules, since e-buses often ascend hills slower than ICEs buses, while hot climate could further impact the variability of battery performance. In fact, running air conditioning and other additional cooling services takes a significant amount of battery capacity, especially when buses must maintain 13 hours of air conditioning while traveling over 250km a day. At the same time however, bus routes, unlike most taxis, are fixed and therefore offer high route predictability. Most e-buses charging would occur overnight at depots, calling for grid integration to ensure adequate grid capacity. On the other hand, night buses usually have little time to charge and may require additional buses or charging at higher power.

As mentioned above, while in Hong Kong the main bus type in operation are the double-deck buses, KMB has been running a trial with 30 single-deckers. The initial findings of the trial show that the passenger carrying capacity and performance of the single-deck e-buses are comparable with that of ICE buses.

However, the wider use of single-deck e-buses locally hinges on their ability to cope with the distance normally travelled by their ICE counterparts. When the battery capacity is further enhanced to support more than 300 km a day after a full charge, the range constraints could be overcome. Or if there are adequate charging facilities at bus termini and public transport interchanges for top-up charging during daytime operation.

Furthermore, compared with private EVs, commercial vehicles are usually heavier and require a larger battery capacity and longer charging time. As an example, with standard and medium chargers, a heavy vehicle would require more than 3 hours to fully charge.

Importantly, there are currently ultra-fast charging solutions, for example the Megawatt Charging System, with a 250kW fast charger that could be used to charge commercial vehicles. This technology provides smaller commercial vehicles (e-taxis, light buses, vans), a faster 5-minute charge to add 100km of driving range or with a 20–30-minute charge to get to up to 80% battery capacity. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks however would need a lot more power which can be provided by using a fast-charging connectors for heavy-duty vehicles, which translates to e-HVD to still be less time efficient than diesel models.

Talking about innovations, in the UK a revolutionary EV charge-point management system has been developed, called EV Charge Online. EV drivers can pull up to the thousands of streetlights throughout the UK and using their mobile phone or in-car connectivity, login to the charge-point and pay on the spot for its use. Another interesting technology is the induction wireless charging, rapidly turning into a mainstay in EV leader countries like Norway, Sweden, Germany, and the UK. The induction charging can be installed in static parking slots or in specific lanes on a highway.

Sweden, has been running a pilot project, transforming a 1.6km of road into a wireless energy charging dock capable of powering even an e-bus via the process of induction.

These could be some interesting options for Hong Kong to explore, not only for private cars but also for taxis, public transport, and vans. Again, we have to consider the technical possibility so further feasibility studies are required.

Another important aspect, on the edge between battery performance and financial considerations, is the current warranty period for batteries. Most EV suppliers provide warranty for around 6 to 8 years or 150,000 to 240,000 km.

An average taxi would operate for more than 100,000 km a year, change of batteries may occur more frequently under the current battery technology, leading to operating cost concerns.

 Financial constraints – upfront investment

This leads us to financial aspect of electrification of commercial fleets.

The initial investment cost of e-taxis and vehicles for public transport are still higher than their ICE counterparts, deterring fleet owners from electrifying their vehicles. In fact, commercial vehicle segments struggle with up-front costs despite lower total cost of ownership (TCO) of EVs in the long run.

Numerous studies suggest that EVs cost significantly less to maintain, on average 30-40%, compared to ICE vehicles. Some logistic companies like UPS, have taken advantage of this, deciding to electrify their fleet to reduce operational costs of last-mile logistics in Europe, US, and China, delivering up to 50% operational cost savings. UPS’s delivery fleet in the downtown areas of Beijing and Xian are almost fully electrified, and the electrification is expanding to other cities, like Shenzhen and Guangzhou. It is a promising case that Hong Kong could try to follow. 

When it comes to public transport, the capital cost of an e-bus or e-PLB can be 50% higher than that of an ICE vehicle.

Based on a recent study, the high initial cost is a consequence of a few factors: EV being still considered a new technology with more unknown risks that ICEs vehicles, high production cost of battery packs, and an emerging marketplace which has not yet achieved the economy of scale. If we look at the latest E-PLB cost, it is around HK$1.5M (or US$192,000) per unit. It is honestly quite expensive! See link below (sorry in Chinese only but with some good photos of the e-PLB)

When looking at e-HVD, a typical e-truck is more expensive than a diesel counterpart by 50 to 100% mostly due to the high cost of the battery, which can easily deter the application of e-HVD in real cases.

However, trucks and buses typically travel greater distances over their lifetimes than passenger cars, so their operating costs typically outweigh the capital investment. Moreover, the simplicity of the electric powertrain leads to lower maintenance costs as well. A study from the International Council on Clean Transportation examined the cost structure of electric and diesel trucks and showed that the total cost of ownership of e-trucks can be lower than that of ICE trucks, and that operational savings could be realized much sooner than expected. A parity point of total cost of ownership between electric and diesel models is estimated to reached before 2030.

Another cost factor that should not be underestimated are the repair and maintenance costs as well as human resource costs. The training of staff, in particular drivers and mechanics or maintenance staff, in the new technology is another cost on top of the vehicles. These costs should keep reducing in the future as more of the operators’ workforce becomes acquainted with the new technology.

Particularly in Hong Kong, a challenge is that most public transport is privately owned. Without significant incentives, it is an expensive shift on technology for corporations. Moreover, public buses franchises run on relatively low profit margin. Therefore, it could be difficult for them to have a business case to electrify their fleet.

Here is where a targeted government subsidy policy could offer a pivotal point in electrification endeavor. Substantially subsidizing the purchase of e-taxis and public transport to reduce the barrier of the higher investment costs would help to introduce electric mobility in commercial vehicles and also positively impact air quality. It is especially important in Hong Kong’s bus sector, since there are only three bus companies in the city.

It could be relatively simple to promote the use of e-buses by introducing incentives. These are needed since bus electrification projects require enormous costs, for example, the estimated cost of Paris’ 800 e-buses order was around €400m, Brisbane’s 60 new electric buses cost AUD190m, and Oslo’s 70 new e-buses, charging infrastructure and electricity will cost US$70m over the next decade.

As for the light commercial vehicles, while some incentives are already in place, such as the full profits tax deduction for the capital expenditures on the vehicles in the first year of procurement and the reduced annual vehicle license fees, the introduction of a policy providing a full exemption of the first registration tax (FRT) for commercial EVs could increase the attractiveness for local businesses to switch to EVs.

Electric vs hydrogen 

It is also worth mentioning, that EVs are not the only option for clean public transport that Hong Kong is considering. During the ReThink conference, a Towngas executive was raising awareness about this important technology, to be either an alternative to EV or a supplementary technology to electrification.

Towngas has announced successful implementation of producing hydrogen from its gas supply chain. Hydrogen is already an important component of city’s gas mix, accounting for nearly 50% of the supplied gas. There are existing technologies in place to split and process the Towngas mix into hydrogen and methane. The aim will be to start supplying Hong Kong’s bus operators and, in the future, heavy duty vehicles with hydrogen charging infrastructure.

Towngas hydrogen is not the “green hydrogen” that more holistically addresses the end-to-end emissions reduction initiatives. Therefore, it will not reduce buses energy supply chain carbon footprint (since the energy production does not come from renewable energy sources) but it will indeed eliminate the roadside emissions and consequently, reduce local air pollution.

Importantly, the refueling time of hydrogen vehicles is comparable with that of ICE vehicles, and so could be a valid alternative to electric vehicles. It is also worth mentioning that, while the hydrogen refueling infrastructure cost is usually one of the prevailing barriers to a widespread viability of hydrogen vehicles, the Towngas has already a well-established gas infrastructure of 3,600km of pipelines in Hong Kong. Therefore, a widespread commercialization is being carefully studied and the city is preparing for first pilot projects with hydrogen buses.

However, before pilots can commence, Hong Kong government has to deliver laws regulating hydrogen production, storage and refueling as the city has no such laws yet in place.

It means that hydrogen is considered to be a dangerous gas due to its high flammability and it remains illegal to drive a hydrogen-powered vehicle in Hong Kong.

As soon as the local government addresses the regulatory issues and the infrastructure consideration, hydrogen fuel cell buses, as well as heavy-duty tractor-trailers and drayage trucks around the ports will most probably the most promising vehicle segments to benefit from this technology.

Key takeaways

Electrifying taxis, PLBs, franchised and non-franchised buses, as well as HVD should be a high priority in order to deliver significant contributions towards Hong Kong’s transport decarbonization objectives. However, the commercial vehicle segments have some important barriers to overcome.

1. A robust, city-wide charging infrastructure must be developed to support increasing numbers of EVs on our roads. The technology surrounding charging facilities and battery performance must be carefully assessed, piloted, and introduced based on solid grounds and feasibility studies. There is not the responsibility of a single stakeholder such as the Government, but a collectively ecosystem players such as automotive OEMs, regulators, training institutions, technology startups, academics, etc. Government should play a strategic role to support Public Private Partnership (PPP) model to support continue development of the E-mobility market for Hong Kong with the strategic context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA).
2. Business operators such as bus companies and individual taxi owners may be constrained in affording early investment needed to transition these fleets. The electrified commercial fleets are not yet on cost parity compared to ICE vehicles, making the very short-term economic case for fleet operators more challenging. Certain Government "interventions" should be in place to incentivize the change, otherwise the transition to net zero could only be more difficult. Leading best practices from overseas indicate a range of early government-led support for these segments, combining vehicles purchasing incentives with targeted infrastructure investments will help to provide the extra push needed to kick start electrification. Planning that delivers access to fit for purpose, reliable, efficient, and dedicated charging infrastructure facilities will be critical to support these segments’ commercial requirements.
3. In order to achieve the goal of net zero leveraging green transportation, it is important to reduce the number of ICE vehicles on our roads and consequently, as a preferred option, to encourage more people to use "green and clean" public transportation (instead of owning your own car) which is powered by EVs or any green energy powered vehicles (electric, hydrogen fuel cell). But if we peel the onion, the only way to further unlocking the value of EVs is to make the entire supply chain greener for the entire EV lifecycle, from EV development to its disposal and recycling. This is a wider topic that we need to study and observe in the coming years. It would be interesting to see how this industry will develop down the road.

It is up to all of us to take the actions today for supercharging our future.

A big thank you to the article contributors: Anna Chlebowska, Terence Lim, Brandon Choi, Yannie Tsoi, Yanni Wong and Alex Ip. Also, EY for offering the opportunities to share eMobility trends in various forums.

Source: EY Group photo at ReThink HK 2022 with Jasmine Lee (Managing Partner, Hong Kong & Macau), Andrew Lee (Partner, Greater China Markets), Ee Sin Tan (Partner, Climate Change & Sustainability Service), Albert Lee (Partner, Climate Change & Sustainability Service) and team

What's next?

Here comes to the last episode of this Supercharging the Future series on eMobility. Coming next, we will talk about geopolitics impact such as energy crisis, global inflation, etc...so stay tune and watch this space!

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.

References:

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