A Shift in Syria’s Civil War

By Mike Froman

For years, the Syrian civil war was essentially frozen, and the world’s attention moved elsewhere—first to Ukraine, and then to Gaza. But last week, Islamist rebels in Syria’s northwest launched a surprise offensive against government forces, capturing much of Aleppo. It was a major setback for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his backers—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Aided by Russian airstrikes, Assad is desperately attempting to halt the progress of the insurgents, who have since seized the city of Hama. His grip on power looks weaker than it has in years. 

Meanwhile, the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon, imperfect in its implementation, appears to be holding. Israel has signaled that even minor violations will be addressed forcefully, establishing a new set of expectations going forward. Having destroyed an estimated 80 percent of Hezbollah’s rocket supply, Israel, if it succeeds in keeping Hezbollah north of the Litani River, could fundamentally improve its security posture. 

These developments were top of mind at the symposium on the Middle East that CFR hosted Tuesday with the Institute for National Security Studies, Israel’s premier think tank. One of the event’s sessions—a panel on the “day after” in Gaza—was held in honor of the late Martin Indyk, a titan of U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East and a distinguished fellow at CFR who died in July at age 73. 

Martin served twice as U.S. ambassador to Israel (and in a number of other government positions), wrote prolifically on the Middle East, and devoted his life to the cause of Israeli-Palestinian peace. In his last Foreign Affairs article, Martin argued that the war in Gaza could not end without fashioning a more stable order for the region, including a credible path toward a two-state solution. But he also knew all too well that the situation on the ground was hardly ripe for peace. 

Listening to the discussion held in honor of Martin, one couldn’t help but feel overwhelmed by the obstacles to peace—among them, the psychological and political climate in Israel, disarray among the Palestinian leadership, and the continued survival of Hamas as an ideology, if not a political entity.

 As former U.S. official Mara Rudman put it, borrowing a phrase from childhood development, the Israelis and the Palestinians need to engage in “parallel play,” meaning getting their own houses in order before trying to negotiate with each other. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority (PA), called for a “renewed” and “unified” PA—in his words, “a government that is not of the factions or even by the factions.” 

The biggest question is what to do the day after war ends in Gaza. Audrey Kurth Cronin of Carnegie Mellon argued that Israel’s mistake after October 7 was “not doing the classic things that we know work in ending terrorist organizations”—namely, to not respond in a way that engenders more sympathy for Hamas. Tamir Hayman, Israel’s former head of military intelligence, pointed out that given the way Hamas embedded itself in civilian infrastructure, “There’s no way of achieving the goals of the war to dismantle Hamas without the collateral damage that goes with it.” 

Lurking in the background of all of these issues is Iran. The activist and actress Nazanin Boniadi argued that while U.S. policymakers have focused on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and sponsoring of proxies, they have neglected its domestic repression. “The Achilles heel of this regime is the Iranian people,” she said. “We must invest in them.” 

But CFR Senior Fellow Elliott Abrams argued that for the U.S. president-elect, Iran’s “domestic scene does not seem to be of much interest.” Under the incoming Trump administration, there may be a greater chance of a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran, as Assaf Orion, a retired brigadier general in the Israeli military, noted. Since October 7, he said, Israel’s “risk appetite has been totally transformed.” 

Three successive presidents have tried to extract the United States from the Middle East—Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden—only to get pulled back in by turmoil. As he prepares for his second term, Trump has promised to end the war in Gaza immediately and bring peace to the broader region.

Trump will indeed have a certain amount of leverage as an unqualified supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as a volatile decision-maker willing to issue threats to deliver important results. The question is whether he will use that leverage wisely.

Photo: (Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters)

 OTHER ANALYSIS FROM THIS WEEK

What Syria’s Revived Civil War Means for the Region

By Steven Cook

The surprise rebel offensive that has seized Aleppo and the city of Hama and threatens other regime-held territories could mark a further weakening of Iran’s regional sway but also spur a new cycle of violence and instability. Read the expert opinion

What’s Next for South Korea

By John Delury

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law was a frontal assault on the integrity of South Korea’s democracy. But the country’s response showed the competence of the administrative state and South Korea’s citizens. Read the analysis

Lebanon: A Guide to the War-Torn Democracy

By Jonathan Masters

An array of domestic and foreign powers are vying for influence in Lebanon, including the Lebanese Armed Forces, Hezbollah, Israel, Iran, Syria, and the United States. Get the background

The Gaza Lessons of 2006

By Elliott Abrams

Israel must act firmly to enforce the Lebanon agreement or it will collapse within months—and only Israel can be expected to enforce it. Read more on Pressure Points

Domestic Politics Overshadow Biden’s Africa Visit

By Michelle Gavin

President Joe Biden’s sweeping pardon of his son, Hunter Biden, has generated plenty of debate. But the proximity of his decision with his visit to Angola has been largely overlooked. This is a mistake. Read more on Africa in Transition

Analyzing Whether COP29 Was a Failure or Success

By Alice C. Hill and Priyanka Mahat

The UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, was poorly organized, fell far short of goals for climate finance, and raised doubts about the ability of the conference process to halt alarming global warming trends. Read the expert opinion

Protecting U.S. Allies and Partners From Coercion

Elliott Abrams, Ezra Hess, and Josh Kurlantzick

China’s growing willingness to defy the international order, and its increasingly aggressive leadership, have led it to utilize economic coercion against countries it believes have defied China’s interests. The United States and its partners have not been well-prepared for Beijing’s coercion. Read more on RealEcon

The Price of Neglecting Latin America

By Will Freeman

To the extent that foreign crises helped shape the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, it wasn’t the ones in Gaza and Ukraine that had the strongest effect. It was the spread of mafias and mafia states throughout Latin America and the corresponding mass exodus of migrants and refugees to the southern border of the United States. Read more on Foreign Affairs

AI Priorities for the Next Trump Administration

By Sebastian Elbaum and Adam Segal

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has been breathtaking, and American firms are leading the way in showing the potential of a new AI-propelled world. But rivals like China are gaining ground, with major consequences for the U.S. economy and security. Read the expert opinions

Tariffs Are Coming, but Congress Can Stop Them

By Inu Manak

Whether any of Trump’s tariff announcements on social media actually happen is hard to predict, but they are a reminder that much of the damage that could result from raising tariffs can be avoided if Congress takes action to rein in presidential abuse of trade authority before inauguration day. Read more on The Hill

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Assessing a Year of War in the Middle East

This joint symposium between CFR and the Institute for National Security Studies (Israel) brought together a broad range of regional and military experts to reflect on a year of war in the Middle East and how the change in U.S. administrations could shape evolving regional dynamics. The three sessions covered the present state of the war in Gaza, the future of Middle East peace processes, and U.S. strategy towards Iran. Watch the sessions

A Conversation With Former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

Former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko discussed Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia and the role of U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization support. Watch the discussion

A Conversation With CDC Director Mandy K. Cohen

Dr. Mandy K. Cohen reflected on her time as director for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), highlighting the progress and accomplishments of the Biden administration both domestically and globally. Watch the discussion