Global Dependence on Fossil Fuel – even after 2040...

Global climate goals to reduce fossil fuel

To address the urgent threat of climate change, the international community has set global climate goals to reduce the use of fossil fuels and transition to a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system. The primary climate goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a further aim to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

To achieve this goal, the world needs to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas. To this end, the Paris Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, calls for all signatory countries to take action to limit their greenhouse gas emissions and transition towards a more sustainable energy system.

The Paris Agreement includes commitments from countries to regularly review and increase their emissions reduction targets, with the aim of reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of the century. To achieve this goal, countries need to rapidly transition towards renewable energy and energy efficiency measures, as well as invest in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.

In addition to the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all, as a critical component of sustainable development. The SDGs include a target to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix and to promote energy efficiency measures.

Global Focus | Fossil energy as primary energy source will not be eliminated in the near future

While it is true that fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, are currently the primary energy source for many countries and industries, the transition towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system is underway.

Renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, and biomass, are becoming increasingly competitive and cost-effective. In many parts of the world, the cost of renewable energy has fallen below that of fossil fuels, making it a viable alternative. Moreover, renewable energy sources have the advantage of being clean and emitting no greenhouse gases, which is crucial in the fight against climate change.

In addition, technological advancements and innovation are constantly improving the efficiency and effectiveness of renewable energy systems, such as energy storage, grid management, and transmission infrastructure.

Furthermore, policies and regulations, such as carbon pricing and emission reduction targets, are driving the shift towards a low-carbon economy, which will inevitably reduce the demand for fossil fuels.

However, it is true that the transition towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system will take more time than predicted by international authorities, as it requires significant investments in infrastructure, research, and development.

It is absolutely unlikely that fossil fuels will be completely substituted in the near future, being China the country that uses roughly 50% of global fossil fuel and not significantly reducing this amount towards a gradual phasing out of these fuels and the adoption of renewable energy sources.

Use-Case EU | Europe’s Biggest Sources of Electricity

The biggest sources of electricity in Europe vary depending on the country and region, but some of the most common sources include:

👉 Natural gas: Natural gas is one of the most popular sources of electricity in Europe, particularly in Western Europe, where it accounts for a significant percentage of the total electricity generated.

👉 Coal: Although coal has been declining in recent years due to environmental concerns, it is still a major source of electricity in many parts of Europe, including Central and Eastern Europe.

👉 Nuclear: Nuclear power is used extensively in Europe and accounts for a significant percentage of the total electricity generated in countries like France and Ukraine.

👉 Renewables: Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and biomass are becoming increasingly popular in Europe, particularly in countries like Germany, Denmark, and Spain.

👉 Oil: Oil is a less commonly used source of electricity in Europe, but it is still used in some regions where it is readily available.

👉 Hydro: Hydroelectric power is a significant source of electricity in some parts of Europe, particularly in countries like Norway and Switzerland, where there are abundant water resources.

Overall, the mix of energy sources used to generate electricity in Europe is shifting towards renewable energy sources and away from fossil fuels, as countries seek to reduce their carbon emissions and address the challenges of climate change.

Accelerating the EU’s Energy Transition

The EU has set ambitious goals to accelerate the energy transition towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system. Some of the key measures that can help accelerate this transition include:

👉 Increasing the share of renewable energy: The EU aims to increase the share of renewable energy in its final energy consumption to at least 32% by 2030. To achieve this goal, member states must invest in renewable energy technologies and support the development of innovative solutions.

👉 Energy efficiency improvements: Energy efficiency measures can help reduce energy demand, lower energy bills, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has set a target of improving energy efficiency by 32.5% by 2030.

👉 Carbon pricing: Carbon pricing mechanisms such as carbon taxes or emissions trading schemes can incentivize the shift towards low-carbon technologies and encourage companies to reduce their emissions.

👉 Electrification: The electrification of transport and heating can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EU aims to have at least 30 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2030 and to increase the share of electricity in heating and cooling.

👉 Energy storage: The development and deployment of energy storage technologies can help address the intermittency of renewable energy sources and facilitate the integration of higher shares of renewables into the energy system.

👉 Digitalization: Digital technologies can help optimize energy use, improve energy efficiency, and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources into the energy system.

👉 Green financing: Access to financing is crucial for the deployment of low-carbon technologies and the development of renewable energy projects. The EU has set up various funding mechanisms to support the transition towards a low-carbon economy, such as the European Green Deal Investment Plan and the Just Transition Mechanism.

Overall, the acceleration of the EU's energy transition requires a combination of policies, technologies, and financing mechanisms. By implementing these measures, the EU can move towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing the challenges of climate change.

Use-Case | Spanish energy mix

Spain's energy mix has evolved significantly in recent years, with a growing share of renewable energy sources and a decreasing share of fossil fuels. In 2020, the breakdown of Spain's energy mix was as follows:

1.      Renewables: 47.7%

👉Wind: 21.9%

👉Solar: 10.8%

👉Hydro: 8.8%

👉Biomass: 6.1%

2.      Nuclear: 21.3%

3.      Fossil Fuels: 31%

👉Natural gas: 19.3%

👉Coal: 2.2%

👉Oil: 9.5%

Spain has set ambitious targets to further increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, with a target of reaching 74% by 2030. To achieve this goal, Spain is investing in the development of new renewable energy projects, particularly in wind and solar. Spain also has plans to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2025, and the use of natural gas is expected to decline in the coming years.

The nuclear energy sector in Spain is relatively small but still plays a significant role in the country's energy mix. However, the future of nuclear energy in Spain is uncertain, as there is increasing public opposition to nuclear power.

Overall, Spain's energy mix is shifting towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system, with a growing share of renewables and a decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, as Spain works towards its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change.

Use-Case II | China’s energy mix

China's energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, particularly coal, but the country has been making efforts to shift towards a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system. In 2020, the breakdown of China's energy mix was as follows:

1.      Fossil Fuels: 84.3%

👉Coal: 57.5%

👉Oil: 19.3%

👉Natural gas: 7.5%

2.      Renewables: 15.7%

👉Hydro: 9.8%

👉Wind: 5.1%

👉Solar: 0.8%

China has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, with a target of reaching 35% by 2030. To achieve this goal, China is investing heavily in the development of new renewable energy projects, particularly in wind, solar, and hydro.

In addition, China is promoting energy efficiency measures, such as the adoption of energy-saving technologies and the implementation of building codes and standards to reduce energy consumption. China is also working to reduce its reliance on coal, which is one of the most polluting fossil fuels, by promoting cleaner technologies, such as high-efficiency, low-emission coal-fired power plants, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.

However, despite these efforts, China's energy mix is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal, and the country remains the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. China's energy transition will require significant investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency measures, as well as policies and regulations to encourage the adoption of clean energy technologies and reduce the country's reliance on fossil fuels.

Co2 emission in China vs. rest of the world

China is currently the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for around 28% of global emissions in 2019. In comparison, the United States is the second-largest emitter, accounting for around 15% of global emissions, followed by India, Russia, and Japan.

However, it is important to note that while China is currently the largest emitter of CO2, it also has the world's largest population and is the largest producer of goods and services in the world. When emissions are measured on a per capita or per unit of GDP basis, China's emissions are lower than those of many developed countries, including the United States.

That being said, China's emissions have been increasing rapidly in recent years, as the country has experienced rapid economic growth and industrialization. The scale of the challenge is enormous, and China's emissions will continue to be a key focus of global efforts to address climate change.