An Arctic Strategy, Starlink in Gaza, and the Outage as a Dress Rehearsal

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This week in Tech for War and Peace

This week, the Pentagon released a new strategy for the Arctic - a region that due to climate change is becoming increasingly accessible and is a venue for strategic competition.

Starlink is now available in a hospital in Gaza and is looking for a distributor in Sudan.

But first, the Microsoft outage exposed vulnerabilities to global tech. While the crisis was unfolding the cyber security expert Professor Richard Buckland named it as an example of what could be waiting for us in the future:

"It is playing out how an attack would play out […] even if this is just a dress rehearsal for what a cyber warfare or cyber terror attack would look like.”

— Richard Buckland, Professor in CyberCrime, Cyberwar, and Cyberterror at UNSW

The Big Story

Pentagon’s Arctic Strategy

On Monday, the DoD released a new Arctic strategy. The Arctic is becoming increasingly accessible and is a venue for strategic competition. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the NATO Alliance, increasing collaboration between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, and the accelerating impacts of climate change, are all major geopolitical changes driving the new strategic approach.

China operates three icebreakers in the region for dual civil-military research and has tested unmanned underwater vehicles and polar-capable fixed-wing aircraft. Russia continues to invest in new military infrastructure and refurbishing Soviet-era installations in the region. Its Northern Fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula, along with submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

There are also suspicions of Russian activities beyond strictly military operations. Russian fishing boats are suspected to be involved in, for example, cutting off communication cables. In August last year, The European Leadership Network published a report on “Countering Russia’s Hybrid Threats in the Arctic,” pointing out that Russia’s strategy is hybrid warfare and interference through non-military means. The report lists four key trends: increases in critical infrastructure interference and intelligence operations; cyber espionage and intelligence operations; and information influence operations.

The DoD report presents a solution that “should pursue early warning capabilities; discrimination sensors; tracking sensors; Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C5ISR) capabilities; improved understanding of the electromagnetic spectrum; and sensing and forecasting capabilities.”

Officials are also directed to continue research into options for new space-based missile-warning and observational systems with greater polar coverage as well as to “conduct analysis of requirements for future unmanned platforms that can operate in the Arctic.”

In a briefing on Monday, Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Defense Secretary, noted that — as the Pentagon is moving quickly to deploy artificial intelligence and autonomous capabilities across its enterprise — the Arctic is a “perfect domain” to test out different applications. She said it also envelops “a clear area where we can apply some of what we’re doing in the department.”

“AI is ideal at helping us make sense of an environment pattern recognition, bringing in data and understanding the environment to make better decisions and faster decisions. And this is a space where I think bringing the two together or just in general being able to leverage AI can really advantage us,” she added.

Starlink in Gaza and Sudan

Starlink has begun offering internet in a hospital in the Gaza Strip, Elon Musk announced on X on Tuesday.

Five months ago, the Israeli government granted permission, with the condition that a series of measures would allow the system to be used in a field hospital run by the UAE while preventing access for Hamas.

Starlink is also seeking an official distributor to operate the service in Sudan, where volunteers and health workers have used Starlink to provide relief during the civil war. Humanitarian groups have called on Starlink to maintain its service amid a blackout that inhibits aid efforts.

Starlink is used in many conflict zones. In March, a Bloomberg investigation revealed widespread examples of equipment being traded and activated illegally in, for example, Yemen and Sudan.

In the News

War and Rising Nationalism is Expected to Spur a Venture Capital Boom in a One-Time Silicon Valley 'Taboo' Sector: Defence Tech

Rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Israel, are driving a surge in venture capital investments in defence technology, a sector previously considered taboo in Silicon Valley. From 2021 to 2023, $108 billion was invested in defence tech companies. Venture capitalists are shifting focus from software to hardware and defence tech, predicting the latter will become more profitable due to advancements in AI and the need for robust, high-cost technologies. Companies like SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril are already prominent in this sector.

Read more at Fortune.

Food, Water, Wifi: Is This the Future of Humanitarian Aid

Innovations in technology are transforming humanitarian aid, with new solutions like mobile money transfers and drones revolutionising food and aid delivery. These advancements aim to enhance efficiency and transparency in aid distribution. However, challenges remain, such as ensuring the suitability and acceptance of these technologies in vulnerable communities. The need for a careful balance between technological innovation and traditional methods is crucial to effectively addressing global hunger and humanitarian crises.

Read more at The Guardian.

Shifting Mindsets: Integrating Virtual Reality in Conflict Mediation and Peacebuilding

Virtual reality (VR) is emerging as a powerful tool in conflict mediation and peacebuilding efforts. By creating immersive environments, VR allows stakeholders to experience different perspectives, fostering empathy and understanding. This technology has the potential to transform traditional approaches to conflict resolution, making peacebuilding efforts more effective and inclusive. The integration of VR in mediation processes can facilitate communication, enhance negotiations, and ultimately contribute to sustainable peace.

Read more at Mediate.

From Ukraine to Taiwan, Jamming of 50-Year-Old GPS is a Defence Tech Nightmare

As warfare advances technologically, an Achilles’ heel has emerged in America’s defence capabilities: the 50-year-old GPS L1 signal. This signal is being jammed in conflict zones, affecting advanced weapons on the battlefield. In Ukraine, Russian forces are jamming American weapons reliant on GPS, impacting Ukraine’s counteroffensive. This interference extends to civilian aircraft systems across Eastern Europe. Concerns are rising about the resilience of GPS amidst potential Chinese escalation around Taiwan. Despite superior L5-band signals being available, most devices still rely on outdated L1 signals, making them vulnerable. Modern L5 signals are 30 times harder to jam and should be adopted to protect critical military technologies and national infrastructure.

Read more at Breaking Defense.

Trump’s Allies Working on a Plan to Advance AI Military Tech

Allies of Donald Trump are reportedly drafting plans for an executive order to create “Manhattan Projects” for AI military technology. This initiative aims to develop AI military tech and review regulations established by President Joe Biden. The framework includes the creation of industry-led agencies to study AI models and protect them from foreign powers, aligning with the goal of making America a leader in AI. This move is likely to benefit Trump’s tech donors, including Elon Musk. The executive order seeks to advance U.S. interests in AI while repealing Biden’s executive order that imposes restrictions on AI development.

Read more at Business Insider.

Chinese Military Experts Have AI Worries

Chinese military experts are expressing concerns about the development and deployment of AI-enabled military systems. A report from Georgetown University highlights several technological challenges China faces, including difficulties in data management, developing advanced sensors, and creating reliable AI systems. The experts also worry about the potential risks of AI accidents and the lack of robust testing and evaluation protocols. These concerns are shared by U.S. experts, indicating a common ground for potential bilateral cooperation to mitigate AI-related risks in military applications.

Read more at Foreign Policy.

New Deepfake Tech Could Help Military with Anti-Cognitive Warfare

New deepfake technology could play a significant role in anti-cognitive warfare by providing tools to counter misinformation and psychological operations. This technology can help military and intelligence agencies create realistic simulations to train personnel and develop strategies to combat cognitive threats. The use of deepfakes in this context highlights the dual-use nature of AI and the importance of ethical considerations in its deployment. This approach can enhance the military’s ability to respond to emerging cognitive warfare tactics.

Read more at Focus Taiwan.

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