🥇 NEW: PitchBook’s latest Fintech & Payments M&A Report is out with new valuation research not done before.
Link to the report is below.
⤵️ The heat came off the fintech buyout market in Q2. PE fintech buyouts decelerated to an estimated 12 deals in Q2, down 57% from Q1’s 28 buyouts, and down 37% from Q4’s 19 buyouts. Despite a soft Q2, buyouts in the past 12 months have been healthy, with an estimated 68 fintech deals compared with 2023’s 55, 2022’s 62, 2021’s 104, and 2020’s 72 buyouts.
🌤Lower rates would provide the first leg of a true PE revival, but adding a strong IPO & corporate M&A market would put us closer to 2021 levels.
🐳We expect more large fintech/payments buyouts, despite a lack of acceleration in the buyout count, as evidenced by (1) the acquisitions of Nuvei for $6.2 billion, Worldpay for $12.5 billion, and Coupa for $8.0 billion, (2) the presence of big PE such as Blackstone and Carlyle in the space, (3) and payments' strong revenue growth and margins.
🌊Using PitchBook’s proprietary PE take-private model we identified six publicly traded fintech/payments companies with the highest likelihood of being acquired by PE: nCino (7.7% takeout probability), AvidXchange (6.5%), Euronet Worldwide (5.3%), Corpay (4.7%), Remitly (4.4%), and BILL (4.2%).
☔️Corporate acquisitions remain subdued. Q2 saw 26 estimated corporate deals, compared with 26 in Q1 2024 and 25 in Q2 2023. We predict that corporate M&A will take two or more years to “come back” in full and will be driven by three factors: CEO confidence (heavily influenced by stock price); consistent economic/company operating performance; and FOMO - watching peers make acquisitions.
💵We examined the ratio of acquisition prices to employee head count (a proxy for revenue and profitability) from 2020 to Q2 2024 and payments companies logged the highest median valuation ratio at 1.61x, followed by financial services infrastructure at 1.40x, capital markets at 1.34x, CFO stack at 1.26x, wealthtech at 1.06x, regtech at 0.86x, and finally alternative lending at 0.86x.
🌎B2B (enterprise) payments also outperforms on exit value measures: We compared VC dollars invested in first-time financing rounds to eventual exit value to determine which subsectors generated strong returns for early investors. Enterprise payments led with a 2.1x ratio, followed by regtech at 1.6x, consumer payments at 1.55x, and financial services infrastructure at 1.06x. All other categories were below 1.0x.
You can download the report here. https://lnkd.in/eYzBChuB