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EURUSD holds near multi-week low ahead of ECB's widely expected 0.25% rate cut The euro fell to the lowest in 2 ½ months in early European trading on Thursday, holding firmly in red for the fourth straight day, a part of larger three-week downtrend. Markets await the ECB’s policy decision, due later today, with wide expectations that the central bank will deliver the third rate cut this year. The ECB is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today (Deposit rate to move to 3.25% from 3.50%) as inflation is under control and the economy is stagnating, partially due to high borrowing cost. Markets also expect the ECB to cut rates three more times until March 2025, though confirmation for such action is unlikely to be heard from President Lagarde and other policymakers, as they stick to their mantra that any policy decision will be based on economic data ahead of every meeting. Bearish picture on daily chart (strong negative momentum / Wednesday’s close below 200DMA / 10/100 bear-cross) and weakening weekly studies (14-w momentum indicator is breaking into negative zone / 5/200WMA death cross) support bearish scenario. Bears eye immediate targets at 1.0835 Fibo 61.8% of 1.0601/1.1214) and 1.0809/00 (weekly cloud base / psychological), ahead of 1.0775 (Aug 1 higher low) and 1.0745 (Fibo 76.4%). Broken 200DMA reverted to initial resistance (1.0872), followed by falling daily Tenkan-sen (1.0922) and the base of thick daily Ichimoku cloud (1.0968) which should cap corrective upticks to keep larger bears in play. Res: 1.0872; 1.0907; 1.0935; 1.0968 Sup: 1.0825; 1.0800; 1.0775; 1.0745 #forex #fx #eurusd #forextrading #euro #ecb #ratecut #monetarypolicy #lagarde #borrowingcost #technicalanalysis

Currencies update: The euro softened following cautious remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who emphasized the need for careful decision-making on future interest rate reductions. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane added that while a recovery is still expected, recent data have raised some concerns about the euro zone's economic prospects. Market bets of a 50-basis point cut by the ECB in December are on the rise. Sterling declined as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that while inflation fell below target in September, pressures from energy prices and service inflation remain problematic. In Japan, the yen weakened as BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the need for gradual policy adjustments due to uncertainty around achieving the 2% inflation target. In Canada, the Loonie fell after the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, its first large cut in over four years. Of all the Central banks, BOC and RBNZ stand out as the leading candidates for aggresive easing. Across the Tasman, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr suggested inflation is moving towards stability, though the pace remains uncertain. In technical terms, AUD/USD faces critical support near 0.6625, with further declines potentially targeting 0.6563/0.6500. The upcoming release of Australia's Q3 CPI on October 30 is expected to be a key event, with markets closely watching the data for signs of disinflation. Current market pricing assigns a one-in-four chance of a rate cut, but a downside surprise in CPI could increase those odds to 50/50. This would likely exert additional downward pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD) across the board, as expectations for a more dovish RBA would intensify.

Currency market wrap. Given the technical setup and market conditions, AUD is indeed vulnerable to a breakdown. With downside risks in key economic data like the upcoming Q3 CPI, combined with potential shifts in RBA rate cut expectations, it looks increasingly likely that support levels will be tested. If AUD/USD falls below the 0.6625 support, a further drop towards 0.6475/0.6500 seems probable. Keep an eye on critical levels and market sentiment, as any downside surprise could accelerate the decline. Options markets suggest that traders are getting aggresive with protection trades.

📉 Anticipation is building as the ECB is set to announce a rate cut amid an economic slowdown in the Eurozone. With inflation nearing target levels, policymakers are divided on how aggressively to act. A 25 basis point cut is expected, aiming to boost growth and narrow interest rate gaps. How will this impact the currency market? Stay tuned for updates! https://lnkd.in/deYBwcwV #ECB #Eurozone #InterestRates #eurusd #gbpusd #largarde #xauusd #gold Disclaimer: Not trading advice

ECB Rate Cut – Exciting times for Euro buyers As expected, the ECB delivered the first rate cut of the major economies, slicing 0.25% off the base rate. The announcement came as no surprise with markets widely expecting the move for weeks. Christine Lagarde kept her cards close to her chest during the usual accompanying statement, giving little away as to what her plan was next. The ECB President was in no rush to outline the next course of action, taking a noncommittal stance that had minimal effect on the Euro. Across the pond, speculation on when the Fed will make its interest rate move has kept the greenback under pressure. After the US economy underperformed in the first quarter of the year, the dollar has been on the back foot and given up ground against both the Euro and Pound over the last month. With political and economic uncertainty on both sides of the channel it’s unlikely to be smooth sailing for either the Pound or Euro in the coming weeks and months. With the ECB deciding to keep their next move a secret and the UK election outcome still shrouded in doubt, heightened volatility is the only safe bet. The next question on everyone’s minds - Will it be the BOE or FED who follow in the ECB’s footsteps first? #currency #fx #GBPEUR #GBPUSD #EURUSD

Euro Outlook Ahead of the ECB Rate Decision – EUR/USD, EUR/CHF Setups Euro in focus ahead of the highly likely ECB rate cut. Euro positioning has improved in recent weeks and softer US data could improve the outlook for the single currency

Market Summary: In the currency markets, the U.S. Dollar saw a reversal of recent gains as concerns were raised by some Fed policymakers about the risks of easing policy too soon. Fed President Raphael Bostic anticipates only one rate cut this year, while Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in line with the majority of the board, foresees three cuts, pending further evidence of inflation moderating. Data from the US housing market showed a slight decline in New Home Sales for February, dropping by 0.3% month-over-month from 0.664 million to 0.662 million units. In the world of forex trading, the AUD/USD pair saw a 0.45% increase from its lows of 0.6510 to around 0.6550, while the NZD/USD pair managed to surpass the 0.6000 level after hitting monthly lows of 0.5985 the previous week. Across the pond in Europe, the AUD/EUR pair rose slightly towards 0.6050 from lows of 0.6025 on a quiet Monday. Many European Central Bank policymakers have hinted at potential rate cuts in June, with current market pricing reflecting this sentiment and showing little chance of the ECB making a move at its April meeting. Turning our attention to the UK, the Pound stabilized against major currencies after falling to monthly lows the previous week. The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 0.25% last Thursday, with Governor Bailey suggesting that inflation is on track for interest rate cuts. Money markets are now pricing in about a 75% chance of a rate cut by the BoE by June, a significant increase from the 35% chance at the beginning of the previous week. The AUD/GBP pair closed flat near 0.5170 after reaching daily highs of 0.5185. #australia #uk #newzealand #usa #interestrate #dollar #sterling #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #challengercapital #willbanks #marketedge #internationalbusiness #europe #ASIC

Weekly Currency Market Insights Here's your latest update on key currency pairs as markets brace for a pivotal week of economic data and central bank decisions. 💷 GBP/EUR: The Pound is holding firm at 1.2080, supported by the Bank of England’s cautious approach to policy easing. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected 25bps rate cut this Thursday. Any dovish signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde could add further weakness to the Euro. 💷 GBP/USD: The Pound remains resilient above 1.2700 as markets await US CPI data on Wednesday. Strong US jobs data boosted the Dollar last week, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week keep sentiment mixed. 💶 EUR/USD: The Euro is trading near 1.0550 amid mounting ECB rate cut expectations. This week’s US inflation data and the ECB decision will determine whether the Euro can find any support or extend its recent losses. 🇦🇺 AUD/USD: The Australian Dollar remains under pressure near 0.6400, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday. Weak Australian growth data and the US Dollar’s resilience continue to weigh on the Aussie. Summary: With central bank decisions and US inflation data looming, expect volatility across major currency pairs. The Pound continues to show strength, while the Euro and Australian Dollar face headwinds. Stay tuned for further updates!