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The Takeaways:   ·Hot inflation data pushes market’s rate cut expectations to September.   ·Higher-than-expected inflation in March helped verify worries that inflation is proving stickier than expected.   ·Following the CPI Report, the outlook now for this year is two interest rate reductions in lieu of three.   ·Markets didn’t like the CPI News and sold off aggressively Wednesday.

🗞US CPI data Forecast: Core inflation set to cool further, adding to expectations of Fed policy pivot - - The US Consumer Price Index is set to rise 3.1% YoY in February, matching January’s increase. - Annual Core CPI inflation is expected to edge lower to 3.7% in February. - The inflation report could provide fresh clues as to the timing of the Fed policy pivot.

Snapshot📷 📷: This week’s leading headline was falling inflation. On a trailing 12-month basis, headline CPI decelerated by -0.1% to 3.3%, while core CPI decelerated by -0.2% to 3.4%. Our Take 💭 💭 : Markets will often put more emphasis on the direction of economic data, i.e. how much inflation is increasing or decreasing, than the actual value itself. And inflation decreasing was a positive indicator that pushed equities higher last week. However, recent inflation numbers have been benefiting from “base effects”. Meaning it’s easier to look small when compared to the large inflation numbers from last year. As the base effects reverse, it will be more difficult for inflation to continue to decrease. While the recent CPI report was a positive indicator, we believe higher for longer inflation to remain. Portfolio Positioning 🎯 🎯 : Underweight long duration until a clearer indication of interest rates falling.

Surprise surprise, US inflation rises unexpectedly 🥵US CPI came in higher than expected in at 3.8% last month, beating analysts’ forecasts of 3.7%. More importantly, core CPI which is more reliable indicator of underlying inflationary pressures rose 3.2% YoY - above consensus of 3.1% and higher than last month. 🙅♂️The latest figures speak against immediate rate cuts which markets hoped for to come as early as June this year. The inflation numbers will play an important role in in the Fed’s meeting next week, when rate-setters are due to release their newest dot-plot indicating how many rate cuts are expected.📝 With 2 hot inflation prints since the December meeting, more than 3 cuts in the SEP seem unlikely.❌ Jay’s not happy. ☹️ #inflation #us #cpi #economy #data #interestrates

🗞US CPI data Forecast: Core inflation set to cool further, adding to expectations of Fed policy pivot - - The US Consumer Price Index is set to rise 3.1% YoY in February, matching January’s increase. - Annual Core CPI inflation is expected to edge lower to 3.7% in February. - The inflation report could provide fresh clues as to the timing of the Fed policy pivot.

📊 Inflation Update: What the Latest CPI Report Means The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows inflation rose by 2.7% in November, slightly up from 2.6% in October. Here’s a quick breakdown: 📈 Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation increased by 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. 🏠 Housing Costs: Rental prices saw a small uptick of 0.2%, the smallest increase since July 2021, suggesting a slowdown in housing-related expenses. 🍞 Food Prices: Grocery costs, particularly for beef and eggs, experienced noticeable hikes, contributing to overall inflationary pressure. 💸 Federal Reserve Action: Despite rising inflation, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in an effort to balance inflation control with economic growth. These inflation trends are worth keeping an eye on as they can influence everything from spending habits to future interest rates. 🔗 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/e3mtia3B #InflationUpdate #CPIReport #EconomicTrends #FinancialPlanning

📊 All eyes are on CPI inflation data, and the stakes couldn't be higher. 📈🔍 Just about EVERYONE is anticipating headline CPI inflation to hit 3.4%, with Core CPI not far behind at 3.6%. If this holds true, it would signal the first monthly decline in inflation since January 2024. 📉 However, @Kalshi's prediction markets reveal a different story, showing a 29% chance of inflation exceeding 3.4%. There's even a 17% probability of it surpassing 3.5%, marking the 3rd consecutive monthly increase. 📈 Should inflation spike above 3.5%, brace for potential Fed rate HIKES to enter the conversation once again. Stay tuned as we await the unveiling of these pivotal numbers, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the inflation landscape. #Inflation #CPI #Economy #Finance #MarketInsights

August CPI (Consumer Price Index) was slightly firmer than expected; a reminder that the path towards lower inflation is likely to have some bumps on the way down. It may take time before the Fed’s 2% target is met, but with year-over-year CPI down to 2.5% (and the Core reading at 3.2%) we continue to see signs of price pressures abating. This progress on inflation will likely lead the Fed to cut rates this week with a soft landing now the target for policymakers. We believe these are all positive developments for the consumer, and yet sentiment has lagged the inflation recovery. This week Matthew Trachy, CFA digs into this disconnect.

📉📊 CPI Report Suggests Possible Rate Cuts Ahead! The latest CPI report shows promising signs of inflation control, hinting at possible interest rate cuts. Stability in July's figures compared to earlier months suggest a trend that might lead to more accommodative policies from the Fed. This is welcomed by markets preferring easing measures over recession concerns. Why is this pivotal? Rate cuts can stimulate investment and spending, influencing job markets, business growth, and overall economic health. Yet, the nature of these cuts—whether they're seen as responses to declining inflation or as preventive measures against recession—will significantly influence market responses and business strategies. #EconomicInsights #MarketTrends 📈💡

Inflation data for October shows an increase in consumer prices, aligning with Wall Street expectations and revealing a core CPI rise. #inflation #economy #CPI #BureauofLaborStatistics #financialnews