The Brookings Institution’s Post

'Harris vs. Trump' Who will win this November’s U.S. presidential election? Professor #Barry_Eichengreen analyzed the economic policies of the two candidates. “No question, the upcoming U.S. election will have far-reaching implications for the global trading system, for U.S. foreign economic relations, and for climate policy. It will could reshape the position of the dollar and more generally of the United States in the world economy. It will affect U.S.-China relations and the fate of globalization. Much is at stake.” #HIC #US_Presidential_Election https://lnkd.in/dMEpYg4N

On 30th October, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her debut Budget, shaping the UK’s economic trajectory for years to come. With promises of fiscal responsibility and long-term investment, how will the new Labour government balance tax and spending? Join our team of UK economists as they discuss key questions, from fiscal constraints to economic growth. Register now. https://lnkd.in/eYqg3pWw #UKbudget #UKeconomy #UKgrowth

At the top of tonight's post, a declaration. I believe in both Government and in governance. I'm a big democracy fan, which means that I like things like the arms-length principle, strong institutions and the free press. Worse still (and I can sense I am going to lose some of you here...) I even believe in *central* Government. I think the UK is too small to be genuinely federal, but too big to be a Frankish centralised economy. The natural equilibrium, it seems to me, is a robust central Government in a benign and mutually-beneficial relationship with local Government, overseen and regulated by a Treasury whose main preoccupation is good old, boring old fiscal management. I have never believed (as is increasingly modish) that the answer lies in ever-more-granular devolution - in fact, I think that to some extent devolution is a dereliction (noting that I am speaking here about regional and local devolution in England, not the Devolved Nations). But *bad* Government is another thing entirely. Bad Government, by which I mean the combination of a lack of accountability, a lack of competence and a lack of direction, is more corrosive than either centralisation or devolution. In a time of bad Government, the machinery of progress seizes up. Policy becomes reactive to a privately-owned media rather than a progressive vision of the public good. Worse, policymakers forget how policy works, and even start themselves to believe that nothing, really, will ever change no matter what they do. As someone who has been in the business of influencing policy, it is exhausting. In the old days, you could make a case, marshal the evidence, build a coalition of support and then lobby for policymakers to take up the initiative and deliver system change. For far too long, campaigners in all sectors have been putting all of the energy into their work as the 'starter motor' of change, only to discover that the engine is rusted solid. Above all else I long for the resumption of good Government. I can handle almost any political outcome, so long as it is competently done. Even brexit, to which I was vehemently opposed, could have been done well rather than badly. I know that the central ambition of an incoming Government must be to restore trust in our institutions. But before they can do so, they have to restore the trust those institutions have in themselves. Policy *can* make change. Industrial strategies *can* lift productivity and drive growth. Law *can* improve lives. Voting *does* matter. System change *is* possible. Let's rediscover, as a nation, the art of the possible. I guarantee that every social and economic indicator that has for so long sat in the doldrums will soar if we do.

Most people consider economics when casting their presidential vote, but few can recite the campaigns’ leading proposals. Fewer still realize how economists view those policies. Most voters’ opinions are formed either by the unconditional praise lavished by that candidate’s party, or the unconditional scorn heaped by the opposition. John Rekenthaler, writing for Morningstar suggests let’s close that gap. In his column he lists the major recommendations made by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. He states he has his opinions about how Democrats and Republicans stand on other issues, but on economics, he is entirely neutral. He evaluates the proposals strictly on their merits (or not), regardless of who has made them—while being guided strongly by the consensus of trained economists. His assessments occur in three sections: the policies’ potential effects on job creation, inflation, and national debt and can be found here: https://lnkd.in/gviXTTnX #elections #economics #retirement #savings

The Deep State Lies in Wait for Trump His second term will be much like my time in office if he doesn’t confront the entrenched bureaucracy. By Liz Truss April 15, 2024 4:03 pm ET But even if President Trump is re-elected, his battle will have only begun. Across the West—especially the English-speaking world—there has been a shift of power away from democratically accountable officeholders to unelected bureaucrats and technocrats. The administrative state undermined Mr. Trump’s first term and undermined my tenure as Britain’s prime minister, forcing me out of office after 49 days. I assumed that I would be able to drive through the agenda on which I was elected. How wrong I was. The opaque British bureaucratic state undermined my proposed reforms, and their American equivalents will have Mr. Trump in their sights if he is victorious in November. The deep state will attempt to undercut him even more than it did in his first term. Conservatives need to understand that winning an election isn’t enough. The winner needs a concerted plan to dismantle the deep state, which seeks its own self-preservation. When I entered Downing Street in September 2022, growth in the British economy had been anemic for years, despite artificially low interest rates that served to accustom government and consumers alike to cheap money and inflation. Tax burdens and energy costs were high, and the expansive welfare state was bloated. The U.K. had left the European Union in 2020, but reams of burdensome laws remained on the British statute book. The economic establishment had bought into the high-tax, high-regulation, big-government European approach and had little appetite for supply-side policies or tax cuts. Too many conservatives went along with the establishment’s push for net zero and high immigration. As soon as I announced plans to institute a range of supply-side reforms, I was marked by the technocrats for political extinction. On the eve of the publication of our growth plan, the Bank of England raised interest rates, but not by as much as anticipated—a misstep that prompted a fall in the value of the pound, leading to higher yields on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts. The central bank also announced plans to sell £40 billion in gilts that evening, prompting private bond holders to pre-empt the sale by flooding the market with their own gilts.

OH MY, HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED "A liberal program must also be a responsible program, a reasonable, rational, realistic program. We must know how much it will cost and where the money is coming from. Benefits must be measured against burdens. A program which pampers the people or threatens our solvency is as irresponsible as the one which ignores a vital need. But we will always remember that there is a difference between responsibility and timidity, and we are resolved to be governed more by our hopes than by our fears.” AND "A liberal's duty to be responsible has a special meaning in view of the grim crisis we face in the budget. From last year's budget, our bleak legacy is a 100 million dollar deficit. For several years, our State has spent more than it has taken in, and now almost all of our reserves and special funds are exhausted. I am resolved that our new administration will face our financial responsibilities without flinching. Before the end of the month, I will recommend an economy-minded budget, and a courageous and fair program to obtain new revenues. I pledge, however, that we will not sacrifice essential services or narrow our vision for California." AND "Throughout the world, the cynical creed of Communism slanders democracy with the charge that men are too greedy, too ignorant, or too lazy to govern themselves. Let us, in our respect and concern for all the people, resolve to prove anew that representative government is the best government. Let us forge a program which will liberate our human resources and demonstrate the renewed vigor of American society. In this way, we will answer the slanders of Communism and expose its evil design." ~ Edmund G. “Pat” Brown, First Inaugural Address, January 7, 1963 Edmund G. “Pat” Brown (D) was the 32nd Governor of California First Inaugural address: https://lnkd.in/epwYh-8c

TIS 4TH & 25: WE NEED TO MAKE A 1ST DOWN The comparison is a retched reality. Tis a Cartoon Monster v a chamelon (changed positions but without changing values). I am ur typical Grandpa Baby Boomer blessed by the post WW2 Sweet Spot that facilitated education, employment & prosperity. Our retirement reflects prosperity even as it becomes tainted by the reality of the 2024 election. With a POTUS47(2025-28) DJT or KH, it’s a divided USA. Neither is capable of uniting us both are helplessly controled by delusions. One projects as a “Cartoon Almighty”, 100 BS always. The other says me no JB46 or Bernie even if Tis 100% BS. So it’s Cartoon BS or I’m not Bernie-Biden BS & the world is taking notice. There’s reason to punt but I’m going with my gut. Our imperfect Republic will survive as our imperfect Democracy, at 4th & 25, finds a way to make a 1st down.

Historic Milestone: The UK's First Female Chancellor's Budget On 30th October, Rachel Reeves made history with her first Autumn Budget as the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer. From increased Capital Gains Tax rates to significant changes in National Insurance Contributions and VAT on private school fees, these new measures will shape financial planning for individuals, businesses, and investors. How will this impact you? We’ve broken down the key highlights in our latest blog, with even more insights available in our newsletter. Read the blog now: [https://lnkd.in/eBbcsX3M] #autumnbudget2024 #rachelreeves #financeupdate #taxchanges #budgethighlights #ukchancellor #businesstax #investmentplanning #financialnews #idealschoolsinsights #bookkeepingcommunity

Republicans, representing the interests of the morbidly rich, opposed all of it. Since the Reagan Revolution of the 1980s, when he cut the top tax rate down to 27%, the top income tax bracket has so collapsed and been shot-through with holes that the average billionaire is paying somewhere between 3 and 8 percent tax on his income. America’s second richest man, Jeff Bezos, paid less than 1 percent. When that revenue shrank under tax cuts from Reagan, Bush, and Trump, so did many of the programs listed above. But an even worse side-effect of cutting the top tax rates has been the explosion of great wealth at the top that has directly pushed the collapse of the American middle class and the weakening of American democracy.

What are Tim Walz’s economic policies? Here’s a look at what he’s done in Minnesota.