Singapore Institute of International Affairs’ Post

US elections tomorrow. Many are saying that it is the most divided America has ever been. Is this really the case, or has the system created this image? There is likely some truth to both. The two-party system does not help. Due to expanse of the US, the usual political lenses are seemingly exacerbated. The US undoubtedly host some of the most cosmopolitan cities which lie in contrast to the rural communities in central states. These differences may not be instigated but are certainly not helped by the divisive rhetoric spun through the “best” and most dangerous media machine. With all the global turmoil, we need this world power to be strong and united. The world still looks to America. I don’t need to talk about South Africa’s difficult past for everyone to understand that we have been as divided as a country can possibly be. However, in our recent elections, the ruling ANC party did not obtain a majority, which resulted in the formation of the GNU (Government of National Unity). This government is made up of five political parties, including the ANC and the party that was previously the main opposition. Whether this coalition arrangement will work, only time will tell, but it cannot be denied that different party ideals will be brought to the forefront over the next four years. There won’t be any coalitions in this US election, but perhaps to avoid a completely divided future, the US can look for some lessons, or at least belief, from little South Africa.

After months of discussions about the upcoming EU elections, the first polls open today, marking the start of a weekend of voting across Europe. 🗳 🇪🇺 What can the 2024 European party manifestos reveal about the policy directions and political strategies for the next European Parliament? At the European Policy Centre, we have examined the manifestos of the main political groups across various policy areas. We identified both differences and convergences between the parties on issues such as; economic security, defence, migration, health, employment and social affairs, green transition, agriculture, digital, enlargement and EU reform. Alberto Horst Neidhardt, Corina Stratulat Levente Kocsis, Berta López Domènech, Liza Saris, Brooke Moore, Chiara Scalamandrè, Mihai Chihaia, Xheimina Dervishi, Riccardo Bosticco, Matteo GORGONI & Philipp Lausberg

🇪🇺The European elections are from 6 - 9 June. We thought long and hard about whether or not to post something about them, as such postings can quickly look like gratefully accepted social media trends that are easy to jump on in order to get a few likes in a bubble that is close to your own opinion anyway. That’s not what we’re talking about - and there’s no room for any kind of contrived comparison with sport. The increasing polarisation in Germany, but also beyond, worries us (as a team with an average age of around 30). We grew up believing that Europe offers us literally limitless opportunities. We can travel wherever we want, we can work wherever we want, we meet people throughout the EU - especially as Germans - who are open to us and interested in exchange. Taking things for granted often leads to neglecting what makes them special. But what we take for granted only remains so if we all work on it. The easiest way to do this is to use the voice that democracy gives us. At a time when people who have been neglected by the welfare state are celebrating their cerebral decarceration by rewriting songs and finding themselves incredibly funny in the process, at a time when the right in the EU Parliament is excluding the AfD because even trivialising the SS is too harsh for them, and at a time when the Russian dictator wants to further divide the EU politically with supposed offers of peace after more than two years of brutal war of aggression in the wake of perverse expansionist fantasies - in these times, the EU election is actually just the right thing to do. Use your vote. Vote so that what we take for granted remains so.

🔔 Tune in to our webinar on 11 June, where we will discuss the impact of the European elections on the EU's agenda and implications for business 📢🇪🇺

The upcoming June European Parliament elections will shape the political context of EU-#China relations for the next five years. The current term-ending mandate has been dominated by building the policy tools and political narrative of a de-risking approach towards China, and the election results will influence Brussels' adherence to this agenda. Grzegorz (Greg) Stec, Head of MERICS Brussels Office, invited members from each of the five biggest political groups in the European Parliament to offer advice to the next incumbents by answering the following question: What are the key lessons learnt from the European Parliament’s work on China policy during the last mandate? With contributions from: - Gyula Winkler (European People's Party) - Raphaël GLUCKSMANN (Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament) - Hilde Vautmans (Renew Europe) - Reinhard Bütikofer (The Greens/EFA in the European Parliament) - Charlie Weimers (ECR Group in the European Parliament) Read in full here: https://lnkd.in/eTZ_4Mn8 For additional context on how EP parties see China, read our recent MERICS Europe China 360°: https://lnkd.in/evRk_imM China Horizons – Research Consortium

📊 Why Did People Vote in the 2024 European Elections? 📊 A recent survey from the EU Post-Electoral Eurobarometer reveals fascinating insights into the reasons that drove people across Europe to the ballot box this year. From rising costs to climate concerns, voter motivations vary widely across countries. Some key takeaways: • Top Concern: Rising prices and cost of living were a primary motivation, especially in Belgium (70%) and Germany (48%). • Climate Change is notably important in Ireland, with 57% citing it as a reason for voting. • Defence and Security matters prominently in Latvia (65%) and Estonia (54%). • Democracy and Rule of Law scored high in Poland and Hungary, reflecting regional priorities. This data underscores the diverse political priorities within the EU, shaped by each country’s unique challenges and aspirations. 📷 Credit: European Parliament (Source: EU Post-Electoral Eurobarometer Survey 2024, EB046EP)

📚 Winter reading list 2024 was marked by the European elections. To highlight the importance of having a truly European vision of the EU, we cooperated with our sister think tanks—the Institut Jacques Delors in Paris and the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin. Together, we pooled our expertise to provide analysis on EU policies and politics in the past mandate and on the elections: https://lnkd.in/dsbJxXsn In addition, Europe Jacques Delors analysts shared their insights on the future of the Green Deal and what the new Commission structure means for the future of green policies.   🔹 What will happen to the Green Deal after the European elections? https://lnkd.in/eFD99E4W   🔹 What should the EU do to keep its sustainability agenda after the European elections? https://lnkd.in/gvhjhpBm 🔹 How does the EU’s strategic agenda fare from a sustainability perspective? https://lnkd.in/dTnTcGHa   🔹 The new European Commission: Perspectives for the green transition https://lnkd.in/exB4XbJt 

I am very excited to announce that just days before the 2024 European Elections, on 27 May 2024with Kalypso Nicolaidis, Dr. Gaia Taffoni Nicolás Palomo Hernández, and Niccolo Milanese, we will present at the School of Transnational Governance in Florence, "Democracy Without Politics in EU Citizen Participation: From European Demoi to Decolonial Multitude", by Alvaro Oleart. The book is one of the most updated diagnosis of the state of European democracy after the end of the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE), the organisation of the post-CoFoE European Citizens Panels and the recent controversies around the follow up to successful European Citizens Initiatives, such as End the Cage Age. Notably, the book contrasts the ‘democracy without politics’ approach in the EU's citizen participation exercises in the context of the CoFoE (and the subsequent citizen panels organised by the Commission) with that of ongoing transnational activist processes. The panel will identify the challenges of European democracy in the 21st century, including those related to democratic innovations and the structural depoliticisation of EU politics. The discussion will draw new lines of reflection on the role of civil society and social movements in the democratisation of the European Union. Read more below - it will be possible to join both in person and online!

📢 Every 5 years, before the EU elections, all the EU Institutions come together to draft a forward looking report showing what’s ahead of the upcoming EU leadership. What global forces will have the biggest impact on the EU? And what will be the key strategic choices to make? That is also the case this year! The 2024 ESPAS Global Trends Report, ‘Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future’ will be launched exactly in one week on Monday 15 April at 16:30h CET. This is the fourth ESPAS global trends report since the establishment of this inter-institutional EU foresight process in the early 2010s. As on previous occasions, it is being published in a year when the EU embarks on a new five-year institutional cycle. The report analyses the key global trends and their possible impact on the Union, and sets out some strategic choices and questions that Europe's leaders may need to address in the coming five years and beyond. The report is the product of a unique collaborative process over the past year involving officials from across the nine ESPAS institutions and bodies. Grab a bag of popcorn & join us here: https://lnkd.in/ePpewFAb

The Georgian Parliamentary elections are attracting a great deal of attention, and the CEC already announced that international observer organizations are already at a record high. With the geopolitical stakes so high, the elections have been described by the ruling Georgian Dream as a choice between war and peace, echoing Lev Tolstoy's monumental opus. In our view, the elections will follow a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for Georgian Dream; 2) the opposition's claims that the elections have been rigged, with calls for massive public protests against the winner; 3) a resolute, but smart, response by law enforcement to violence; and 4) a gradual reduction in tensions as Georgia sets itself on a path of perceived isolation from the West, at least for the time being. The economy would continue to benefit from trading with Russia and welcoming Russian tourists. At the same time, there could be some minimal impact on arrivals from the West. To be sure, this has not happened as of now, and the data for the second and third quarter of this year demonstrates YoY growth of tourist visits from the EU, for example. FDI may also suffer in the medium term, while the lari is very likely to go through some wild gyrations similar to those seen in May-June. In any case, none of this should be very detrimental to the Georgian economy if this whole election is ultimately (and correctly, in our view) seen not a struggle between pro-Russian (GD) and anti-Russian forces (rest), but between moderately pro-Western and radically pro-Western ones. The former want to integrate into the West, avoiding direct conflict with Russia, while the latter seek also to integrate into the West, but with the anti-Russian extras of joining sanctions and fully breaking off ties with Moscow.