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The September quarterly CPI data shows annual inflation at 2.8%, now within the RBA's target range for potential cash rate movement! This is down from 3.8% in the June quarter and marks the lowest annual inflation rate since March 2021. ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt noted this quarter’s 0.2% rise is also the lowest outcome since the June 2020 quarter amidst the Covid-19 outbreak 

MARKET COMMENTARY CPI readings for February were released this morning, slightly hotter than expected. Annual Headline CPI coming in at 3.2% and Core CPI coming at 3.8%. Both were 0.1% higher than expectations. Markets are little changed this morning following this data, however a lack of continued decline in inflation data could lead the Fed to continue to hold rates for longer. 

October CPI came in right in line with expectations. Core CPI was expected to be 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, whereas headline CPI was expected to be 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY. I have the same gripes with this data as always: mainly that shelter inflation still shows a 4.9% increase when more accurate indices (like the Penn State/ACY Marginal Rent Index shows 1.290% rent growth annually. Other things to note: transportation services inflation came down substantially from last month. In September, transportation services climbed 1.4% between August and September (yes, 1.4% in one month), but only grew 0.4% between September and October. One last thing to pay attention to: there's a significant number of items in the CPI breakdown that are deflating. Prices for commodities less food and energy actually went down by 1% YoY in October. This continues the theme that goods are disinflating or deflating, whereas services that heavily involve labor are still inflating.

Takeaways from the new CPI report for the month of August: • Annual Inflation rate is at 2.5%, a 0.4% drop from July, and the lowest since February 2021. •While goods prices continued to fall last month, the cost of services proved a bit more stubborn.

US Inflation Update: June 2024 CPI Data Shows Continued Moderation Key takeaways: • Headline CPI: 3.0% YoY, lowest since June 2023 • Core CPI: 3.3% YoY, lowest since April 2021 • Goods prices: -1.8% YoY, reflecting ongoing deflationary trend • Services inflation: Cooling, with shelter costs showing smallest rise since Jan 2021 The Fed is getting the inflation data it needs to build confidence towards rate hikes. https://lnkd.in/dSksj7FM

US CPI - 1230 - Tuesday 12th March 2024 Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Based on the previous 10 events, EURUSD has on average moved 49.4 pips in the hour after release. Learn more about our Economic Calendar and request a demo here: https://hubs.ly/Q02nVvWG0

#cpi #report September 2024 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 10, 2024, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. US Inflation Rate is at 2.53%, compared to 2.89% last month and 3.67% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.28%

The ABS today announced that the monthly CPI indicator rose 4.0% in the 12 months to May, up from 3.6% in April. This was against market estimates for the CPI indicator to rise to only 3.8%. On first impression, it may appear Australia’s inflation has spiked significantly higher, however, the low base of the index in May 2023 (12 months ago) can explain a lot of the change from April 2024 to May 2024. Positively, the core Monthly CPI (excluding volatile price items) fell from 4.1% to 4.0% in the 12 months to May. While this monthly inflation data is unlikely to force Michele Bullock and the RBA to lift the rate when they meet next on August 5th and 6th, it intensifies the focus on the quarterly CPI numbers set to be released on July 31st, prior to the meeting. A surprise upside on those quarterly numbers may force the RBA’s hand of a rate rise, should the quarterly numbers exceed the RBA’s own inflation forecasts. The ASX is down 1.05% around midday in reaction to the inflation data.

US Core CPI rises 0.3% MoM suggesting the possibility of 25 bps Fed rate cut instead of jumbo 50 bps cut which market made a views earlier and this kept USD flat. ECB too expected to go for 25 bps this week amid slowing EU economic data. Germany inflation drop to 1.9% YoY. Annual US CPI inflation eased to 2.5% in August from 2.9% in July which is lowest level since April 2018. Annual core CPI remained same at 3.2% in August as expected. Monthly CPI increased 0.2%, while core CPI was up 0.3%, both above market expectations. New York Fed President John Williams said that cutting rates will keep the labor market balanced, while Governor Christopher Waller is of the views of easing policy at present scenario.

Overall US CPI moved down to 3.27% YoY in May from 3.36% in April. US inflation has now been above 3% for 38 straight months. US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved down to 3.41% YoY from 3.62% last month. This is the lowest core inflation reading since April 2021. - @charliebilello