Ruffer’s Post

Do not confuse von der Leyen's or Sanchez's cluster-fuckups in the EV and Green domains, with a lack of strength in European industries. We should come back to hybrids for a start. CHINA'S PROPAGANDA, BANKING ON VON DER LEYEN'S EU LACK OR MORALE. There are energy, Thorium, Fusion, chips, new materials, precision engineering, biotech and many other sectors that might catch up soon with the US. China's delusions of grandeur are simply pathetic. We will manage mates. The United Front, the lackeys of Beijing, were always so inventive. These were very imaginative, albeit completely unrelated crossroads. Europe will survive Trump to put in motion a stronger Europe much sooner than they expect. I see R&D growing in Spain. It will pull the South of Europe. It will take time, but it will happen in Portugal, Greece and Eastern Europe, eventually.

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy

You know that something weird is happening when Victor Orban is the European political leader talking most sense. Hosting President Xi Jinping in Budapest, Orban declared that a priority of his upcoming Presidency of the European Union will be to safeguard the trade relationship with China. I have been outspokenly critical of some aspects of his government but on this, Orban is absolutely right. The European energy transition is facing a crossroad. With the easy to abate decarbonization largely done, the realization is dawning that there is a reason why hard to abate sectors are called hard. The cost of the transition is fuelling political concerns and social discontent, just witness how badly the Dutch greens were beaten in Europe’s most liberal society or how Ms Le Pen is already measuring the curtains of the Elysee. The mainstream European elite’s reaction to this problem is: 1.      Lets make the transition objectives even more radical, such as the 2040 90% reduction target. 2.      Lets make the transition more expensive by constraining access with tariffs and other trade barriers to the most cost efficient and scaleable supply source of the necessary equipment, China. There are many assessments of the progress of the transition, but the summary is simple: anything that is mass manufactured in China such as solar, batteries or electric cars is progressing well. Anything that is not (yet) produced in China like offshore wind, heat electrification or CCS is struggling with cost inflation and supply chain issues. All the social media posts on how expanding renewable deployment will soon crush fossil fuels celebrate the Chinese Communist Party. There is nothing new in strategic necessity overruling other political concerns. As a Catholic cardinal, Richelieu allied with the Dutch protestants, staunch anti-communist Churchill allied with the Soviet Union. Arguably, a good definition of an “existential threat’ is a situation which requires allying with anyone who has useful capabilities for facing down the threat regardless of other political considerations. Climate change is the ultimate existential threat for humanity and should be treated as such. I don’t believe that either the 2040 90% reduction target or the 2035 internal combustion engine ban will be politically sustainable without collaborating with China and bringing China’s unique capabilities into play. Importantly, collaborating with China on climate change does not require endorsing the domestic policies of the People’s Republic. However, it does require an acknowledgement that the days when European countries could dictate China’s domestic policies for better or worse are long gone.

It is often worthwhile to check into what is on Laszlo Varro ‘s mind. But his comments a few days ago regarding the essential conundrum faced by democracies - who are keen to reduce GHG emissions while simultaneously protecting markets from Chinese imports - is a particularly accurate bullseye 🎯 on one of today’s central topics. And prophetic given today’s escalation of trade barriers between Washington and Beijing. “The European #energytransition is facing a crossroad. With the easy to abate decarbonization largely done, the realization is dawning that there is a reason why hard to abate sectors are called hard. The cost of the transition is fuelling political concerns and social discontent, just witness how badly the Dutch greens were beaten in Europe’s most liberal society or how Ms Le Pen is already measuring the curtains of the Elysee. The mainstream European elite’s reaction to this problem is: 1. Let’s make the transition objectives even more radical, such as the 2040 90% reduction target. 2. Let’s make the transition more expensive by constraining access with tariffs and other trade barriers to the most cost efficient and scaleable supply source of the necessary equipment, China. There are many assessments of the progress of the transition, but the summary is simple: anything that is mass manufactured in China such as solar, batteries or electric cars is progressing well. Anything that is not (yet) produced in China like offshore wind, heat electrification or CCS is struggling with cost inflation and supply chain issues.” Read the whole post below. #cdnpoli

Changing tides were on full display this week in Brussels, underlined by a stronger overarching political rhetoric that Europe urgently needs to address economic dependencies of strategic supply chains. In particular: 🌏 On his China trip, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told an assembly of university students that “competition must be fair […] in other words, that there is no dumping … there is no overproduction [and] … copyrights are not infringed” but largely failed to seriously challenge his counterpart on these issues and China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. 🙉 In anticipation of his report on Competitiveness, Mario Draghi highlighted that “radical change” is what is needed. Namely, Europe’s naivete regarding respect for a rules-based international order have led it into dangerous dependencies, undermining our economy and collective security. 🗃 While EU leaders gathered in Brussels to discuss economic competitiveness and Enrico Letta’s Single Market report, the spiraling conflict in the Middle East caused discussions to shift to foreign policy, underlining the need for a comprehensive approach to industrial, security and foreign policy in Europe. 🚫 The US and UK have continued to lead the charge internationally through sanctions, cutting off Russia through new restrictions on the trade in Russian aluminium, copper and nickel. Finally, a big thank you to Strategic Perspectives, the Jacques Delors Institute, Stiftung KlimaWirtschaft for putting together a fantastic event on Tuesday and for having our Director, Albéric Mongrenier speak to what growing geopolitical instability means for Europe’s #energysecurity and transition.

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy

In a piece for The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes that Europe faces mounting challenges, including economic stagnation, demographic decline, and geopolitical instability. The eurozone's economy lags, key industries struggle against global competition, and birth rates are at record lows. Politically, the EU's influence diminishes as global powers like China, India, and the U.S. prioritize Indo-Pacific interests. Europe's security situation worsens with divisions over Ukraine policy, while Donald Trump’s return threatens EU trade, climate, and taxation plans. Critics argue Europe's failures stem from inadequate political and economic strategies for 21st-century demands. Reflecting on post-WWII interventions, U.S. policymakers question whether American support has hindered Europe’s growth as a global actor. Some Europeans hope Trump's presidency pushes the EU toward self-reliance. However, European fragility poses a significant risk to international stability, making it critical for Europe and the U.S. to reassess their partnership. https://bit.ly/4i80Ffc #EuropeanDecline #GlobalLeadership #USForeignPolicy