Republic Business’ Post

The #RBI, maintaining an #inflation forecast of 4.5%, kept its key lending #rate steady at 6.5%. Despite food price increases and global tensions impacting crude #prices, the decision focuses on price #stability and #growth.

Summary of RBI MPC Meeting! Repo Rate is unchanged at 6.5% (10th consecutive meeting) Policy Stance is changed to ‘Neutral’ from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ GDP Growth Forecast for FY25 is retained at 7.2% Q2FY25: Revised down to 7% (from 7.2%) Q3FY25: Revised up to 7.4% (from 7.3%) Q4FY25: Revised up to 7.4% (from 7.2%) Q1FY26: Revised up to 7.3% (from 7.2%) CPI Inflation Forecast for FY25: Retained at 4.5% Q2FY25: Cut to 4.1% (from 4.4%) Q3FY25: Raised to 4.8% (from 4.7%) Q4FY25: Cut to 4.2% (from 4.3%) Q1FY26: Cut to 4.3% (from 4.4%) #stockmarket #finance #rbi

The RBI has shifted its monetary policy stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral,’ signaling a more accommodative environment. This could lead to rate cuts as early as December. Key Points: Confidence in Disinflation: The RBI is optimistic about achieving its 4% inflation goal, supported by favorable conditions. Market Reaction: Bond yields fell by 3-7 basis points following the announcement. CPI Insights: With 94% of the CPI basket near 3% inflation, we expect headline CPI to align closely as vegetable prices stabilize. Our analysis suggests a potential 20-30 basis points downside to the RBI’s FY25 inflation forecast, with possible rate cuts of 50-100 basis points before the end of 2025. Stay tuned for updates! #QuantumMutualFund #RBIMonetary Policy #InvestWithoutStress Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

The "withdrawal of accomodation" had lost its relevance. There was no accomodation left to be withdrawn. So, the stance change is just a formality. Yet, what makes it so relevant is that it indicates a rethinking within the MPC about growth inflation dynamics. RBI's growth and inflation estimates are kept same as they were in the last policy; but now the MPC seems more confident about the future outlook. On inflation, volatile vegetable prices continue to make headline inflation forecasts unreliable. There is a reasonable case to look at ex-vegetable CPI to gauge the underlying inflation trajectory. This measure of retail inflation has been much below the RBI's 4% goal for last many months. This offers ample room for rate cuts going forward. #rbipolicy #monetraypolicy #bondmarket

"RBI MPC Meeting: The Wait Continues... 🕰️" "Hey finance friends! 👋 The RBI's MPC meeting has concluded, and here are the key highlights: - Interest Rates: Unchanged for the 9th time! 🤯 Repo rate remains at 6.50%. - Policy Stance: 'Withdrawal of accommodation' continues, staying vigilant on risks. 💡 - Inflation Focus: High food prices remain a concern, with food inflation driving overall inflation. 🍔🥤 - Inflation Data: June's CPI surged to 5.1% due to vegetable prices. 🥗 - GDP Forecast: Unchanged at 7.2% for FY25, with quarterly projections. 📈 - Inflation Projections: FY25 forecast remains at 4.5%. 🔍 The RBI is playing the waiting game, but for how long? 🤔 #RBIMPC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #GDPForecast #EconomicOutlook #FinanceFraternity #IndianEconomy"

RBI monetary policy (April 5th 2024) snapshot: 1. Repo rate is kept unchanged for the 7th consecutive quarter @6.5%. 2. Standing Deposit Facility @ 6.25% 3. Marginal Standing Facility and Bank rate @ 6.75%. 4. GDP for 2023-24 is at 7.6%. 5. projected GDP for 2024-25 is 7%. 6. Projected CPI inflation for 24-25 is 4.5%. 7. CPI inflation for Jan and Feb had come down when compared to December. March numbers are yet to come. 8. objective is to achieve a Target inflation of 4% within a band of +/-2%. 9. foreign exchange reserves stands at $645.6bn. please do follow Kandukuri Lavan for financial insights. #rbi #mpc #inflation #gdp

𝐑𝐁𝐈 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲: 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 RBI’s decisions to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% by a majority of 5 out of 6, and the unanimous decision to change the stance from “Withdrawal of Accommodation” to “Neutral,” were largely in line with market expectations. The MPC rationalized this change in stance by noting sustained domestic growth supported by private consumption and investments, thus providing room for the committee to focus on inflation and ensure its durable descent towards the 4% target. On the inflation front, the committee noted that the recent slowdown in inflation has been largely due to a favorable base and a slowdown in food inflation. Going forward, inflation is expected to pick up mainly due to an adverse base effect and acceleration in the food basket. However, the RBI noted that long-term inflation (FY25) remains anchored around 4.5%. The RBI’s GDP growth projections for FY25 remained unchanged at 7.2%. Given the current assessment of the inflation-growth matrix, it is anticipated that the RBI will remain cautious of the risks arising from inflation dynamics due to adverse weather events, escalating geopolitical tensions, and other factors. Risks surrounding the growth variable remain fairly balanced. Additionally, with the likelihood of a further 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in CY24, the RBI may pivot in its December 2024 policy with a 25 bps rate cut. *Personal views #rbi #policyrate #reporate #outlook #inflation #growth

Will the RBA Increase the Cash Rate? The RBA's upcoming meeting is highly anticipated, especially with the latest inflation data in focus. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in the June quarter and 3.8% annually, as reported by the ABS. This uptick has left analysts debating the central bank’s next move. Key contributors to the rise: *Housing: +1.1% (Rents +2.0%, New dwellings +1.1%) *Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages: +1.2% (Fruit and vegetables +6.3%) The challenge for the RBA is balancing inflation within its 2%-3% target while supporting economic growth. With a 20% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike next week and a 31% chance in September, all eyes are on the decision. What do you think? Will the RBA increase the cash rate? Have your say below?

RBI MPC Meet April, 2024 🔹 The repo rate is unchanged at 6.50%. ✅ The MPC also decided to remain focused on the stance "withdrawal of accommodation." ✅ 🔹 The Real GDP is Expected to be at 7.6% for FY24 on the back of a resilient domestic demand. 🔹 Looking ahead, a normal monsoon is expected to boost the rural economy, a rise in discretionary spending expected by urban households, as per the Reserve Bank’s consumer survey, signs of upturn is seen in the private capex cycle. However geopolitical tensions, volatility in international financial markets, geoeconomic fragmentation, rising Red Sea disruptions, and extreme weather events, pose risks to the outlook. Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.0 per cent. 🔹 Going ahead, food price uncertainties would continue to weigh on the inflation outlook. An expected record rabi wheat production in 2023-24, however, will help contain cereal prices. Early indications of a normal monsoon also augur well for the kharif season. On the other hand, the increasing incidence of climate shocks remains a key upside risk to food prices. Low reservoir levels, especially in the southern states and outlook of above normal temperatures during April-June, also pose concern. Taking into account these factors and assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent. #finance #economy #investing

Market, CPI, IIP Update | December 2024 FIIs saw significant outflows, peaking in October, while DIIs remained resilient with strong inflows, stabilizing the market. Nifty 50 posted positive returns in 6 of 9 months, led by Nifty IT and Consumer Durables, while Energy and PSU Banks lagged. CPI inflation eased to 5.48%, entering RBI’s range, though food inflation remains high. Rural inflation still outpaces urban rates, raising concerns for policymakers. Industrial production improved modestly in October, with Consumer Durables and key manufacturing sectors driving growth. These insights come after a deep dive into the latest market data and trends. #MarketUpdate #CPI #IIP #Economy #EquityMarkets #FinancialInsights