Observer Research Foundation Middle East’s Post

Lebanon's total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today. 14

In today's #BigStory Iran vs Israel: Is this all-out war? The TLDR: On Saturday, Iran launched over 300 rockets at Israel—in retaliation to Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Both acts crossed critical red lines that have helped avoid war in the Middle East. Will this spiral of vengeance result in an uncontrollable war? If so, who benefits? #Israel #Iran #US #MiddleEast #War Read for free with the link in the comments.

🔴 ON THE OUTLOOK FOR SYRIA Where will Syria go after the Islamists come to power? Will we see the birth of a caliphate, or a cantonal state, divided between different forces - internal and external? How will the set of conflicting interests that characterize the broad range of 'winners' of this phase be combined? Is there a solution that brings together Turks and Kurds, Islamists and Israelis, Muslim Brotherhood and American Marines? And how will today's 'defeated' move?

Six Druze villages in southern Syria have formally requested annexation by Israel, citing fears of persecution and insecurity following the collapse of the Assad regime. The appeal reflects growing concerns over the rise of extremist Islamist factions in Syria and their implications for the Druze community. During a meeting held in the Jabal al-Sheikh region, Druze community leaders declared their intention to resist the advance of jihadist forces and proposed annexation to the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. This unprecedented move comes as the Druze, historically loyal to the Assad regime, face an existential dilemma under the new Sunni-dominated leadership in Syria. #EUToday #Syria

🔎 Insights into our latest publication 🔎 Regional tensions rise after the assassination of #Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, as the war in #Gaza threatens to expand into #Lebanon 🇱🇧. #Syria 🇸🇾, as a neighbor to both and beleaguered by over a decade of civil war, could be significantly impacted by such escalations. In his article, Fabio Calzati describes the main armed groups operating in Syria and how they have jockeyed for control in the power vacuum created by a decreased U.S presence. He notes that terror groups like #ISIL stand to gain from the chaos caused by a regional conflict but that #Iran 🇮🇷-backed #Hezbollah might seek to avoid an outright war for fear of its destructive toll upon their own organisation. Fabio warns that this war on the margins conducted by such Iranian proxies may convert into an outright war if the escalating tensions are mismanaged and cooler heads lose out. Fabio recommends a reevaluation of U.S 🇺🇸 and allied military plans in Syria given this new context, increased intelligence sharing to counter the efforts of emboldened terror groups and #humanitarian initiatives that create physical and human infrastructure in Syria to reduce the potential recruitment pool for terror organisations. 📌 Issue 16 of #Mediterranean Programmeʼs #PeaceandSecurityMonitor is available for download here: https://lnkd.in/eg2xPmPQ 📌 Visit the website of our Mediterranean Programme at: https://lnkd.in/dfkAFDjv

Given the current turmoil in the Middle East, unleashed by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the latter’s disproportionate response and ongoing military campaign in Gaza, which has brought the region to the cusp of a broader conflagration, it is useful to consider how the largest Muslim-majority countries further afield are reacting. The following article considers some of the compulsions which seem to be influencing Pakistan’s reactions to the ongoing Palestinian tragedy:

Major wars between Israel and Arab states, along with their outcomes: 1. **1948 Arab-Israeli War (War of Independence)** - **Outcome**: Israel gained independence; territorial expansion beyond UN partition plan; establishment of armistice lines. 2. **1956 Suez Crisis** - **Outcome**: Israeli withdrawal under international pressure; Egypt regained control of the Suez Canal. 3. **1967 Six-Day War** - **Outcome**: Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, and Golan Heights; significant territorial expansion. 4. **1973 Yom Kippur War** - **Outcome**: Stalemate; led to subsequent peace talks; Israel retained most territories but faced initial setbacks. 5. **1982 Lebanon War** - **Outcome**: Israeli forces invaded Lebanon; aimed to expel the PLO; led to prolonged Israeli presence in southern Lebanon. 6. **2006 Lebanon War** - **Outcome**: Conflict with Hezbollah; ended in UN-brokered ceasefire; neither side achieved clear victory. 7.**2024 War on Hamas & Hezbollah: Conflict with Hamas & Hezbollah; not ended yet but it looks like both terror organizations are defeated. These conflicts reflect a series of military engagements primarily driven by territorial disputes, national identity, and regional dynamics. #timetostandupforisrael

🔄 ANALYSIS: Syria's Strategic Reversal - Opposition Forces Shatter Four-Year Stalemate I've published an in-depth analysis examining the dramatic shift in Syria's civil war, where opposition forces have achieved unprecedented battlefield success through a sophisticated combination of military modernization and institutional development. The analysis explores how years of apparent stalemate masked a fundamental transformation in opposition capabilities. While Assad's regime focused on short-term economic gains through captagon trade, groups like HTS invested in military academies, governance structures, and coalition-building. This evolution, combined with the distraction of major powers (Russia in Ukraine, Iran in Gaza/Lebanon), has created conditions for potential strategic realignment in the Middle East. Key analytical points include: • Evolution of opposition military doctrine and command structures • Strategic implications for Russia's Mediterranean presence • Disruption of Iran's regional network • Shifting dynamics in Israel's northern security calculations • Turkey's expanding influence in northern Syria The piece examines how this offensive could fundamentally alter regional power dynamics and alliance structures across the Middle East. Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/dZNn9arF #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Syria #InternationalRelations #StrategicAnalysis #DefensePolicy What are your thoughts on these developments? How do you see this affecting regional stability?

This comprehensive analysis illuminates how years of apparent stalemate masked fundamental transformations in Syria's opposition forces. The piece expertly examines how regional distractions and strategic evolution have combined to create conditions for potential realignment in the Levant. Particularly noteworthy is the examination of how opposition groups invested in institutional development while Assad's forces focused on short-term economic gains. This contrast in strategic priorities has proven decisive in recent operations. The analysis provides essential context for understanding: - Evolution of opposition military capabilities - Impact on Russia's Mediterranean strategy - Disruption of Iran's regional network - Implications for regional security architecture This piece offers vital insight into how current developments could reshape power dynamics across the Middle East. Required reading for understanding the rapidly evolving situation. Full analysis available here: https://lnkd.in/dnJ6mJXE Join our news channels for continuous updates as this situation develops. #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Syria #SecurityAnalysis #BNN