Mark Prendergast’s Post

The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has grown sharply, expanding by roughly 12 basis points since the Federal Reserve's meeting. This shift, where longer-term yields climb more quickly, is referred to as a "#bearsteepener" in market terms. It typically signals that the bond market expects higher inflation in the future. #Recalibration as the FED has said, they are focusing more now on supporting the softening labor market as an admission that they’re willing to tolerate a little higher inflation than normal. How do you see this rate cut moving forward? #investmentadvisory #assetallocation #diversification

Market Alert!!! 🚨 🚨 Major Moves in U.S. Treasury Yields Amid Fed's Expected Cut In a surprising shift, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked by 22 basis points—the largest jump since the COVID-19 crisis. This rapid rise reflects significant market volatility and has investors on edge. Simultaneously, the 10-year yield surged by 16 basis points, reaching levels unseen since July. This spike in long-term yields occurs as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, signaling an unusual divergence in market dynamics. Rising yields typically reflect inflation concerns or stronger economic growth expectations, yet a Fed cut usually aims to ease economic conditions. This unusual scenario suggests market uncertainty about the Fed's moves and their effectiveness in a high-yield environment. Stay tuned as the Fed’s decision unfolds and as these yield changes reshape the outlook for bonds, equities, and overall economic stability. #TreasuryYields #MarketAlert #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #InvestmentTrends #BondMarket #FinanceNews #Inflation

Treasury Yields continue to rise despite the Fed cutting short-term rates. This is not a surprise to us. 10-Year Treasury Yields have now 4.23%, the highest level since July 🚨 So ehat’s driving this? It’s not just inflation expectations The real reason is that real yields—the extra return investors demand above inflation—are rising. This shows that the market is still adjusting, and even with the Fed’s moves, long-term rates continue to rise. There is no ceiling. Understanding this shift can help investors make smarter decisions in this current market cycle. Connect and follow with us to stay informed. #yields #macro #realyields #fed #economy #market

🏦 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝘂𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗠𝘂𝗰𝗵? 💸 This week's video discusses the impact of the July Federal Reserve meeting. Highlights below ⬇ 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟱.𝟮𝟱%-𝟱.𝟱𝟬% • The Federal Reserve determined no rate cuts were needed in July, in line with expectations going into the meeting. • However; the Fed made several important changes to the way they are messaging their outlook. 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗼𝗼𝗻 • Notably, The Fed’s messaging shifted from “fighting inflation” to “preserving both sides of the dual mandate”. • This implies The Fed sees a labor market downturn as just as big a risk moving forward as persistent inflation. 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗧𝗼 𝗕𝗲 𝗔 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 • Wall Street indicators suggest the Fed will almost certainly cut the overnight rate in September. • This expectation is already impacting property financing, banks are decreasing risk spreads, and the 10-year treasury is moving lower in anticipation of rate tightening. #vhgcregroup #marcusmillichap #creoutlook #cre #commercialrealestate #investingin2024 #cremarket #economy #inflation #fed #federalreserve #fedmeeting #interestrates #ratecuts

Ever wonder why interest rates don’t always move the way you'd expect when the Fed changes its rates? 🧐 In this week's Monday Momentum, we're diving deep into why the 10-year Treasury note often has the final say in determining real interest rates, even when the Fed tries to steer the economy. We'll explore how market forces, inflation expectations, and global events influence the 10-year yield and what this means for you. Plus, we'll take a look at how the 10-year reacts to Fed rate cuts in both a soft landing and a recession scenario—using historical data to paint a clearer picture. Check out the full breakdown in the comments! #InterestRates #FederalReserve #TreasuryNotes #Investing #Finance #MondayMomentum

Fed rate cuts may be in the spotlight, but US 10Y Treasury Bonds are telling a more complex story. Our latest analysis uses “second-level thinking” to reveal risks and opportunities that aren’t immediately obvious. Key takeaways: Think Deeper to Spot Traps: First-level thinking only sees what’s obvious; second-level thinking digs deeper, asking whether that “duck” is actually a decoy with a trap nearby. For example, while yields might seem attractive, it’s essential to consider the factors pushing them up—and whether they’re sustainable. Rates Are Up, But Inflation Stays Low: Between early and late October 2024, the 10-year Treasury rate rose from 3.73% to 4.28%. However, Inflation expectations only increased from 0.86% to 1.26%. This disconnect raises questions about the longevity of these higher rates and whether the bond market is overreacting to short-term conditions. Curious if this could impact your strategy with bonds? Discover the full story link in the comments. #MarketInsights #TreasuryYields #Bonds #FedPolicy

📢 **Fed Update: Interest rates will remain unchanged. This decision is accompanied by a NOTABLE shift in language "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," compared to the previous emphasis on being "highly attentive to inflation risks." Key Takeaway: **Dual Mandate Focus** The Fed is now balancing both inflation and employment risks with more emphasis on a cooling labor market which marks a more dovish approach compared to their June statement. Although the Fed doesn’t want to show its hand, we believe the first interest rate cut in September is now even more probable. So what does this mean for you? **Investment Strategies**: A more dovish Fed may first lead to market optimism, but it's crucial to stay vigilant and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Now is a good time to review your debt management and savings strategies. Connect with us and stay informed 💡 #FinancialPlanning #Investing #fed #MarketUpdate #FedAnnouncement #EconomicOutlook #CapitalConclusions

Financial Friday: How Low Can The Fed Go   The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a point! Let's discuss what that means for you and see how low the Fed is willing to go. They reduced rates down to 4.75% to 5.00%, which were at a two decade high previously. With Inflation at 2.5% this directly affected the 10 year Treasury Note rate and what consumers pay when they borrow money. There are predictions that we will have 2 or 3 more cuts this year to bring the rate down to around 4.4%.   Markets are expecting a soft landing and as the economy returns to its pre-pandemic levels we will have plenty of volatility. Earnings season will be starting again soon and elections are around the corner. Now is the time to review your investment portfolio and reallocate your positions as necessary to meet your risk tolerance and time horizon. Stick to your plan and don't worry about daily fluctuations in the market. One thing is for certain, the markets will go up and they will go down, but it is how comfortable you are with the rollercoaster ride along the way.

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (7/31/24): 1. No decision has been made regarding a September rate cut..✌️🏏🚀 2. Attentive to risks on both sides of the dual mandate 3. Fed will assess incoming data for future decisions 4. Q2 inflation readings have added confidence in inflation 5. Reducing rates too late could unduly weaken the economy.. 💯  6. Still need greater confidence on inflation.... #FedStatement #Powell #EconomicUpdate #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #FinanceNews #MarketWatch #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #finvestree

Big market moves today! The Fed cut rates by 25bps but hinted at fewer cuts next year. Here’s the good news: We’ve got you covered! Don’t worry—just stay engaged. 🔔 Bobby Mascia, CFBS #MarketUpdate #FederalReserve #InvestSmart #FinanceTips #StockMarketNews #StayInformed #FinancialFreedom #EconomyUpdate #InflationTalk #InvestmentStrategy